Week 14 • November 28, 2025, 12:30 AM UTC
8-2
American
Power Rank: 3.3
28 FINAL 17
8-3
American
Power Rank: 10.9
Navy covered by 16.5 | Game went Under by 14.5
Navy @ Memphis Preview

General Information

Week: Week 14
Kick Off (at stadium): 06:30 PM CST
Stadium: Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium
Capacity: 50,000
Elevation: 315 ft
HFA Rating: 2.5
Playing Surface: Artifical Turf

Betting Information

Spread Memphis -5.5
Total (O/U) 59.5
Expected Score NAVY 27.0 - 32.5 MEM
Power Rank Implied Line Memphis +7.6
Prediction Markets Memphis 62% Win Chance (Kalshi)

Weather Conditions

Forecast for: February 02, 2026
Clear

Clear

25.5°F

Wind Chill: 18.7°F
Wind: 6.0 mph SSW
Gusts: 11.1 mph
Precipitation: 0.0"
Humidity: 62%
Rain Chance: 0%
Snow Chance: 0%

Travel & Rest

Navy (Away)

This Week: 789.8 miles
Last Week: No Game
Season Total: 6676.7 miles
Body Clock Time: 19:30
Rest Days: 13

Memphis (Home)

This Week: 0.0 miles
Last Week: No Game
Season Total: 5827.2 miles
Body Clock Time: 18:30
Rest Days: 13

⚡ Line Value Calculator

Adjust factors to calculate your projected line

Betting Information
Current Line Memphis -5.5
Total Points 59.5
Blue Chip Analytics Power Rating
Navy 3.3
Memphis 10.9
✈️ Travel Impact
Away Team Travel 790 mi
Home Team Travel 0 mi
Rest Even
🏟️ HFA: Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium
Capacity 50,000
Elevation 315 ft
🌤️ Weather: Clear
Temperature 25.5°F
Wind Speed 6.0 mph
Your Line Memphis +7.6
💰 Implied Value --

College Football Lines - Factors and Insights

Navy

Blake Horvath's dual-threat excellence

Horvath was highly efficient through the air (6/8, 168 yards) with a 63-yard TD pass and effective on the ground (72 yards, 2 TDs). His ability to execute both aspects of Navy's offense makes them dangerous and unpredictable for future opponents.

Dominant second-half defensive adjustments

Navy completely shut out UAB in the second half after allowing 24 first-half points, forcing three turnovers including two interceptions. This shows their ability to make halftime adjustments and suggests they can be trusted to cover spreads when trailing at halftime.

Ground game depth and power

Alex Tecza led rushing with 111 yards and scored the clinching TD, while Horvath added 72 yards. This two-headed rushing attack gives Navy multiple ways to control games and wear down defenses, especially important for their triple-option system.

Perfect conference start despite adversity

Navy improved to 2-0 overall and 1-0 in AAC play while dealing with two hour-long weather delays in the first half. Their ability to maintain focus and execute after long delays shows mental toughness that could be valuable in future close games.

Opportunistic defense creating short fields

The three forced turnovers, particularly the two interceptions of UAB's Jalen Kitna, gave Navy's offense excellent field position. This defensive playmaking ability could be crucial in tighter games where field position battles matter more.

Memphis

Strong Second Half Adjustments and Control

Memphis demonstrated excellent halftime adjustments, outscoring Georgia State 21-0 in the second half after leading just 17-16 at halftime. The Tigers controlled the game with methodical drives, including two long touchdown drives in the third quarter that each took significant time off the clock (5+ minutes each), showing their ability to wear down opponents.

Makari Bodiford Emerging as Key Offensive Weapon

Bodiford had a standout performance with two rushing touchdowns, including scores from both 7 yards and 1 yard out. His ability to punch in short-yardage touchdowns and contribute to sustained drives makes him a reliable red zone threat that opposing defenses will need to account for.

DeMarco Ward's Defensive Playmaking Streak

Ward recorded his second pick-6 in as many games with a 31-yard interception return for touchdown, establishing himself as a game-changing defensive back. This consistent big-play ability from the secondary provides Memphis with a defensive weapon that can quickly shift momentum and add points.

Improved Start to 2-0 Record

Memphis moved to 2-0 on the season with a convincing 22-point victory, showing they can pull away from opponents after competitive first halves. The Tigers' ability to close out games strong suggests good conditioning and coaching, which will be valuable as they face tougher competition.

Balanced Offensive Attack with Multiple Contributors

The Tigers showed offensive diversity with Brendon Lewis contributing a 5-yard rushing touchdown alongside Bodiford's two scores, and Sutton Smith also finding the end zone in the first half. This multi-faceted ground game gives Memphis multiple options and makes them harder to defend.