Week 13 • November 23, 2025, 12:30 AM UTC
7-3
SEC
Power Rank: 20.2
31 FINAL 11
3-7
SEC
Power Rank: 14.7
Tennessee covered by 16.5 | Game went Under by 15.5
Tennessee @ Florida Preview

General Information

Week: Week 13
Kick Off (at stadium): 07:30 PM EST
Stadium: Ben Hill Griffin Stadium
Capacity: 88,548
Elevation: 98 ft
HFA Rating: 2.5
Playing Surface: Grass

Betting Information

Spread Tennessee -3.5
Total (O/U) 57.5
Expected Score TENN 30.5 - 27.0 FLA
Power Rank Implied Line Tennessee +5.5
Prediction Markets Tennessee 61% Win Chance (Kalshi)

Weather Conditions

Forecast for: February 02, 2026
Clear

Clear

29.9°F

Wind Chill: 24.5°F
Wind: 4.9 mph WNW
Gusts: 8.9 mph
Precipitation: 0.0"
Humidity: 42%
Rain Chance: 0%
Snow Chance: 0%

Travel & Rest

Tennessee (Away)

This Week: 444.0 miles
Last Week: Home Game
Season Total: 2257.2 miles
Body Clock Time: 19:30
Rest Days: 8

Florida (Home)

This Week: 0.0 miles
Last Week: 1064.2 miles
Season Total: 5684.7 miles
Body Clock Time: 19:30
Rest Days: 8

⚡ Line Value Calculator

Adjust factors to calculate your projected line

Betting Information
Current Line Tennessee -3.5
Total Points 57.5
Blue Chip Analytics Power Rating
Tennessee 20.2
Florida 14.7
✈️ Travel Impact
Away Team Travel 444 mi
Home Team Travel 0 mi
Rest Even
🏟️ HFA: Ben Hill Griffin Stadium
Capacity 88,548
Elevation 98 ft
🌤️ Weather: Clear
Temperature 29.9°F
Wind Speed 4.9 mph
Your Line Florida -5.5
💰 Implied Value --

College Football Lines - Factors and Insights

Tennessee

Aguilar's Composed Debut

Transfer quarterback Joey Aguilar delivered a poised and efficient performance in his first start, completing 16 of 28 passes for 247 yards and three touchdowns. His ability to stay calm and distribute the ball effectively (including a 73-yard TD to Braylon Staley) suggests the offense is in steady hands moving forward.

Balanced Offensive Production

The offense rolled up 493 total yards with a strong mix of pass and run. Star Thomas (92 rushing yards, 1 TD) led a rushing attack that produced three touchdowns, showcasing depth at running back. This balance will be crucial against tougher opponents.

Defensive Pressure and Late Leakage

The defense recorded five sacks and an interception, applying consistent pressure on Syracuse's quarterback. However, allowing 26 points and a second-half rally that cut the lead to 12 points indicates some vulnerability that needs tightening, especially in the red zone and on third downs.

Offensive Line Depth Tested

Highly touted true freshman tackle David Sanders Jr. was a late scratch due to injury. The line performed well overall in his absence, but his status and the unit's health will be a key storyline to monitor, especially as competition stiffens later in the season.

Tune-Up Before Stiffer Tests

This was a solid opening win, but the level of competition rises significantly after next week's FCS opponent (East Tennessee State). The team has immediate areas to clean up (penalties, defensive consistency) before facing Power Five foes, making the next game a critical final dress rehearsal.

Florida

Coaching Hot Seat Intensifies

Billy Napier's questionable clock management and play-calling in crucial moments, combined with the team's overall collapse, has put him squarely back on the hot seat. At 20-20 overall and facing a tough road game at No. 3 LSU next week, the pressure is mounting significantly.

Critical Penalty Problems

Florida committed 11 penalties for 103 yards, including two devastating infractions on USF's game-winning drive (pass interference and a spitting ejection). This lack of discipline in crucial moments suggests deeper team culture issues that could plague them against elite competition like LSU.

Offensive Line Struggles

The offensive line failed to protect the quarterback adequately and couldn't create running lanes against an unranked USF defense. With only 355 total yards and settling for three early field goals, this unit will face a much tougher test against LSU's defensive front.

Red Zone Inefficiency

Florida's inability to convert scoring opportunities into touchdowns, settling for field goals early in the game, proved costly in the narrow loss. This red zone struggle indicates problems with both play-calling and execution that must be fixed before facing LSU's defense.

Road Game Adversity Ahead

Florida travels to Death Valley to face No. 3 LSU, where they haven't won since 2016. Coming off this devastating home upset loss, the Gators will need to show significant mental toughness and improved execution in one of college football's most hostile environments.