Week 13 • November 22, 2025, 05:00 PM UTC
7-3
ACC
Power Rank: 15.6
6 FINAL 38
7-3
ACC
Power Rank: 12.7
SMU covered by 28.5 | Game went Under by 9.5
Louisville @ SMU Preview

General Information

Week: Week 13
Kick Off (at stadium): 11:00 AM CST
Stadium: Gerald J. Ford Stadium
Capacity: 32,000
Elevation: 594 ft
HFA Rating: 3.2
Playing Surface: Artifical Turf

Betting Information

Spread SMU -3.5
Total (O/U) 53.5
Expected Score LOU 25.0 - 28.5 SMU
Power Rank Implied Line Louisville +2.9
Prediction Markets SMU 63% Win Chance (Kalshi)

Weather Conditions

Forecast for: February 02, 2026
Sunny

Sunny

53.9°F

Wind Chill: 52.1°F
Wind: 6.7 mph SSW
Gusts: 11.2 mph
Precipitation: 0.0"
Humidity: 37%
Rain Chance: 0%
Snow Chance: 0%

Travel & Rest

Louisville (Away)

This Week: 722.5 miles
Last Week: Home Game
Season Total: 3818.4 miles
Body Clock Time: 12:00
Rest Days: 7

SMU (Home)

This Week: 0.0 miles
Last Week: No Game
Season Total: 10387.2 miles
Body Clock Time: 11:00
Rest Days: 14

⚡ Line Value Calculator

Adjust factors to calculate your projected line

Betting Information
Current Line SMU -3.5
Total Points 53.5
Blue Chip Analytics Power Rating
Louisville 15.6
SMU 12.7
✈️ Travel Impact
Away Team Travel 722 mi
Home Team Travel 0 mi
Rest SMU +7
🏟️ HFA: Gerald J. Ford Stadium
Capacity 32,000
Elevation 594 ft
🌤️ Weather: Sunny
Temperature 53.9°F
Wind Speed 6.7 mph
Your Line SMU -2.9
💰 Implied Value --

College Football Lines - Factors and Insights

Louisville

Offensive Firepower on Display

Louisville's offense was explosive, racking up 543 total yards (373 in the first half) and scoring 51 points. Running back Isaac Brown was dominant with 126 yards and 2 TDs on just 6 carries, while QB Miller Moss had an efficient debut (17/25, 223 yards, 1 TD). This high-powered attack will be a major asset moving forward.

Penalty and Turnover Issues

Despite the lopsided win, Louisville committed 12 penalties for 106 yards (most under coach Jeff Brohm) and had three turnovers, which led to both of Eastern Kentucky's touchdowns. Brohm emphasized that cleaning up these mistakes is critical for the team to progress and compete at a higher level.

Strong Defensive Pressure

The Cardinals' defense was disruptive, sacking EKU quarterback Myles Burkett four times and limiting the Colonels to just 150 total yards. This defensive front's ability to generate pressure and stifle the run will be key against more potent offenses.

Miller Moss's Promising Debut

Transfer quarterback Miller Moss showed poise and playmaking ability, completing passes to eight different receivers and leading the offense to a 41-7 halftime lead. His deep-ball connection (30-yard TD to Duke Watson) and mobility (rushing TD) add versatility to the offense, though he did throw two interceptions.

Special Teams Spark

Caullin Lacy's 93-yard punt return touchdown provided an early momentum boost and showcased Louisville's explosive special teams unit. This big-play ability in the return game can be a difference-maker in closer contests.

SMU

Concerning Pattern of Late-Game Collapses

SMU dominated for 3.5 quarters, leading 38-24 with 8:38 remaining, but completely collapsed in the final minutes of regulation and overtime. This marks their third consecutive loss to FBS opponents (Clemson, Penn State, Baylor), suggesting a troubling inability to close out games when holding substantial leads.

Kicking Game Reliability Issues

Kicker Collin Rogers missed two crucial field goals - falling well short on a 57-yard attempt to end regulation and going wide right on a 38-yard try in the second overtime. These misses directly contributed to the loss and raise questions about the team's ability to convert in pressure situations.

Explosive Offensive Capability Remains Intact

Despite the loss, SMU's offense showed elite big-play ability with QB Kevin Jennings throwing for 296 yards and three TDs, including two 75-yard scoring strikes. Romello Brinson (4 catches, 126 yards) and the rushing attack (TJ Harden's 115 yards, 3 TDs) demonstrated the team can move the ball effectively against quality opponents.

Defensive Vulnerabilities in Crunch Time

SMU's defense allowed Baylor QB Sawyer Robertson to throw for 440 yards and completely broke down in the final 5:23 of regulation, surrendering two touchdown passes that erased a 14-point lead. The inability to get stops when protecting a lead is a major red flag for future close games.

Schedule Provides Bounce-Back Opportunity

SMU's next game is against Missouri State, a first-year FBS team in Conference USA, which should provide an opportunity to rebuild confidence and work on closing out games. However, the team needs to prove they can maintain focus against lesser competition after this devastating collapse.