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Week 11 • November 08, 2025, 06:00 PM UTC
Missouri State @ Liberty
5-3
CUSA
Power Rank: -14.1
21 FINAL 17
4-4
CUSA
Power Rank: -7.1
Missouri State covered by 11.5 | Game went Under by 21.5
Missouri State @ Liberty Preview

General Information

Week: Week 11
Kick Off (at stadium): 01:00 PM EST
Stadium: Williams Stadium (VA)
Capacity: 25,000
Elevation: 883 ft
HFA Rating: 2.1
Playing Surface: Artifical Turf

Betting Information

Spread Liberty -7.5
Total (O/U) 59.5
Expected Score MOST 26.0 - 33.5 LIB
Power Rank Implied Line Liberty +7.0
Prediction Markets Liberty 72% Win Chance (Kalshi)

Weather Conditions

Forecast for: February 02, 2026
Partly Cloudy

Partly Cloudy

28.3°F

Wind Chill: 23.6°F
Wind: 4.5 mph SW
Gusts: 8.1 mph
Precipitation: 0.0"
Humidity: 90%
Rain Chance: 0%
Snow Chance: 0%

Travel & Rest

Missouri State (Away)

This Week: 776.7 miles
Last Week: Home Game
Season Total: 7282.2 miles
Body Clock Time: 12:00
Rest Days: 9

Liberty (Home)

This Week: 0.0 miles
Last Week: Home Game
Season Total: 5140.9 miles
Body Clock Time: 13:00
Rest Days: 7

⚡ Line Value Calculator

Adjust factors to calculate your projected line

Betting Information
Current Line Liberty -7.5
Total Points 59.5
Blue Chip Analytics Power Rating
Missouri State -14.1
Liberty -7.1
✈️ Travel Impact
Away Team Travel 777 mi
Home Team Travel 0 mi
Rest Missouri State +2
🏟️ HFA: Williams Stadium (VA)
Capacity 25,000
Elevation 883 ft
🌤️ Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temperature 28.3°F
Wind Speed 4.5 mph
Your Line Liberty +7.0
💰 Implied Value --

College Football Lines - Factors and Insights

Liberty

Defensive struggles against the run

Liberty allowed 338 rushing yards to Jacksonville State, with Cam Cook alone accounting for 195 yards and 2 TDs. This represents a significant weakness that opposing teams will likely exploit, as the Flames showed they cannot stop a committed ground attack.

Turnover problems proving costly

Liberty committed two turnovers (fumble and interception) that Jacksonville State converted into 14 points in the first half. These mistakes directly contributed to falling behind early and having to play catch-up throughout the game.

Explosive offensive potential remains intact

Despite the loss, Liberty showed they can strike quickly with big plays, including a 52-yard rushing TD by Evan Dickens and a 62-yard passing TD from Ethan Vasko to Donte Lee Jr. QB Vasko threw for 335 yards on efficient 19-for-29 passing.

Fourth quarter resilience but not enough

Liberty scored two long touchdowns in the fourth quarter to keep the game within seven points, showing they don't give up easily. However, they couldn't complete the comeback, suggesting they may struggle when falling behind early against quality opponents.

Conference USA title defense off to rocky start

As defending CUSA champions, Liberty's 1-1 start with a loss to the other recent conference champion Jacksonville State puts early pressure on their title defense hopes and suggests the conference race will be highly competitive.