Week 11 • November 06, 2025, 12:00 AM UTC
2-6
MAC
Power Rank: -12.2
3 FINAL 42
4-4
MAC
Power Rank: 2.9
Toledo covered by 24.5 | Game went Over by 2.5
Northern Illinois @ Toledo Preview

General Information

Week: Week 11
Kick Off (at stadium): 07:00 PM EST
Stadium: Glass Bowl
Capacity: 8,000
Elevation: 610 ft
HFA Rating: 2.6
Playing Surface: Artifical Turf

Betting Information

Spread Toledo -14.5
Total (O/U) 42.5
Expected Score NIU 14.0 - 28.5 TOL
Power Rank Implied Line Toledo +15.1
Prediction Markets Toledo 85% Win Chance (Kalshi)

Weather Conditions

Forecast for: February 02, 2026
Mist

Mist

14.8°F

Wind Chill: 2.7°F
Wind: 9.6 mph SW
Gusts: 17.9 mph
Precipitation: 0.03"
Humidity: 95%
Rain Chance: 0%
Snow Chance: 0%

Travel & Rest

Northern Illinois (Away)

This Week: 267.4 miles
Last Week: No Game
Season Total: 4064.9 miles
Body Clock Time: 18:00
Rest Days: 12

Toledo (Home)

This Week: 0.0 miles
Last Week: No Game
Season Total: 4440.1 miles
Body Clock Time: 19:00
Rest Days: 12

⚡ Line Value Calculator

Adjust factors to calculate your projected line

Betting Information
Current Line Toledo -14.5
Total Points 42.5
Blue Chip Analytics Power Rating
Northern Illinois -12.2
Toledo 2.9
✈️ Travel Impact
Away Team Travel 267 mi
Home Team Travel 0 mi
Rest Even
🏟️ HFA: Glass Bowl
Capacity 8,000
Elevation 610 ft
🌤️ Weather: Mist
Temperature 14.8°F
Wind Speed 9.6 mph
Your Line Toledo +15.1
💰 Implied Value --

College Football Lines - Factors and Insights

Toledo

Offensive production but missed opportunities

Toledo outgained Kentucky 329-305 yards and quarterback Tucker Gleason threw for 270 yards with a passing and rushing touchdown. However, critical failures in the red zone, including a goal-line stand by Kentucky in the first half, prevented the Rockets from capitalizing on drives and ultimately securing the win.

Defensive pressure and special teams spark

The defense recorded a sack in the end zone for a safety in the first half, providing early momentum and keeping the game close. While they allowed some big plays, including a 79-yard touchdown run, the unit showed it can create disruptive plays that will be crucial in MAC play.

Preseason expectations meet Power 5 reality

As the preseason MAC favorite with AP Top 25 votes, this close loss to an SEC team on the road demonstrates Toledo's competitiveness. However, it also highlights the gap in finishing drives against a physically talented opponent, a key lesson as they aim for the conference title.

Chip Trayanum's effective return

Running back Chip Trayanum, a transfer from Kentucky, had a solid debut with 42 yards on just 7 carries (6.0 avg). His power running adds a reliable element to the offense, and his familiarity with high-level competition will be valuable moving forward.

Immediate test against high-powered offense

Next week's home game against Western Kentucky presents a major challenge. WKU's pass-heavy offense will test Toledo's secondary immediately, requiring quick adjustments from the defensive backfield to avoid starting the season 0-2.