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Week 10 • November 02, 2025, 12:00 AM UTC
Arkansas State @ Troy
4-4
Sun Belt
Power Rank: -8.9
23 FINAL 10
6-2
Sun Belt
Power Rank: -5.1
Arkansas State covered by 20.5 | Game went Under by 19.5
Arkansas State @ Troy Preview

General Information

Week: Week 10
Kick Off (at stadium): 07:00 PM CDT
Stadium: Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL)
Capacity: 61,831
Elevation: 548 ft
HFA Rating: 2.4
Playing Surface: Artifical Turf

Betting Information

Spread Troy -7.5
Total (O/U) 52.5
Expected Score ARST 22.5 - 30.0 TROY
Power Rank Implied Line Troy +3.8
Prediction Markets Troy 75% Win Chance (Kalshi)

Weather Conditions

Forecast for: February 02, 2026
Clear

Clear

23.1°F

Wind Chill: 14.7°F
Wind: 7.2 mph NNW
Gusts: 13.8 mph
Precipitation: 0.0"
Humidity: 63%
Rain Chance: 0%
Snow Chance: 0%

Travel & Rest

Arkansas State (Away)

This Week: 389.1 miles
Last Week: Home Game
Season Total: 3624.2 miles
Body Clock Time: 19:00
Rest Days: 8

Troy (Home)

This Week: 0.0 miles
Last Week: Home Game
Season Total: 5655.0 miles
Body Clock Time: 19:00
Rest Days: 8

⚡ Line Value Calculator

Adjust factors to calculate your projected line

Betting Information
Current Line Troy -7.5
Total Points 52.5
Blue Chip Analytics Power Rating
Arkansas State -8.9
Troy -5.1
✈️ Travel Impact
Away Team Travel 389 mi
Home Team Travel 0 mi
Rest Even
🏟️ HFA: Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL)
Capacity 61,831
Elevation 548 ft
🌤️ Weather: Clear
Temperature 23.1°F
Wind Speed 7.2 mph
Your Line Troy +3.8
💰 Implied Value --

College Football Lines - Factors and Insights

Troy

Late-game offensive explosion

Troy scored 21 unanswered points in the fourth quarter to turn a close game into a comfortable win. Quarterback Goose Crowder accounted for three touchdowns (two passing, one rushing) in the final period, showing the offense can finish strong when needed.

Dominant rushing attack

The Trojans rushed for 272 yards, led by Tae Meadows' 186 yards and a touchdown. This ground game control wore down Nicholls and set up the late scoring surge, providing a reliable offensive foundation.

Defensive pressure and third-down success

Troy's defense recorded four sacks and eight tackles for loss, holding Nicholls to just 249 total yards and 4-of-11 on third-down conversions. This disruptive performance limited the Colonels' opportunities and kept the game within reach until the offense ignited.

Crowder's dual-threat capability

Goose Crowder accounted for four total touchdowns (three passing, one rushing) and showed he can impact the game both through the air and on the ground. His late-game execution will be a key asset moving forward.

Slow start needs addressing

Despite the strong finish, Troy trailed for much of the game and didn't take its first lead until the fourth quarter. The team will need to start faster against stronger opponents to avoid playing from behind.