Houston Cougars

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Houston Cougars is 6-1 on the season, 3-4 against the spread, and holds a power rating of +14.3. Houston Cougars is covering the spread at 60% since the start of last season (12-8), well above the FBS average. The Houston Cougars head to Utah next in Week 8.

Conference: Big 12 Conference
Stadium: TDECU Stadium, Houston, TX
Power Rating (most current): +14.3
HFA Rating:1.5 pts
2026 Win Total:7.5
2026 Record: 6-1
2026 ATS: 3-4
2026 O/U: 5-2

2026 Schedule & Results

In Week 7 of 2026 the Houston Cougars Power Rating of +14.3 is 14.3 points above the FBS average according to Blue Chip Analytics. Houston Cougars have logged 3,900 miles of travel so far, out of a season total of 10,328 miles, ranking 26th heaviest in the FBS.

Houston Cougars Coaching Staff and Key Players

Head coachWillie Fritz
Tenure2 seasons
Record at school14-11
Career record222-127 (29 seasons)
Offensive coordinatorSlade Nagle
Defensive coordinatorAustin Armstrong

Offense

Conner Weigman QB, Keisean Henderson QB, Amare Thomas WR, Makhi Hughes RB, Patrick Overmyer TE, Shadre Hurst OL, Anthony Boswell OL, Drew Terrill OL

Defense

Will James CB, Kentrell Webb S, Jordan Allen S, Jalen Mayo CB, Javion White CB, Paris Melvin Jr. CB, Brandon Mack II EDGE, Latreveon McCutchin EDGE, Ashton Porter EDGE, Khalil Laufau DL, De'Marion Thomas DL, Myles Parker DL, Travis Buhake DL, Sione Fotu LB, Carmycah Glass LB, Jaden Yates LB

Special teams

Zac Yoakam K, Evan Noel K, Jonathan Dimas K, Liam Dougherty P

2025 Season in Review

Record10-3 ATS9-4 O/U8-5
Running totals after each week played. Cumulative, not per week.
AfterRecordATSO/U
Week 11-01-00-1
Week 22-02-01-1
Week 33-03-02-1
Week 54-03-13-1
Week 64-13-23-2
Week 75-14-24-2
Week 86-15-25-2
Week 97-16-25-3
Week 107-26-36-3
Week 118-27-37-3
Week 138-37-47-4
Week 149-38-47-5
Postseason10-39-48-5

A season record is a record, not a forecast. Blue Chip Analytics' own research finds that beating the closing line repeats at close to zero from one season to the next - see most underrated and overrated teams. Read the table as what happened, not as what is likely to happen next.

2026 Power Rating Trajectory

Opened +6.7 in the preseason and finished +14.3 after week 8, a move of +7.5 points. High +14.6 (week 7), low +6.2 (week 2).

Line chart of the 2026 Blue Chip Analytics power rating across 10 points, from +6.7 to +14.3.

PreW8

Houston Cougars SP+ Profile

Offence+31.332 of 138higher is better
Defence+22.845 of 138lower is better
Special teams-0.4103 of 138higher is better

SP+ is an independent opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, one of the systems blended into the Blue Chip Analytics power rating rather than a Blue Chip Analytics number itself. Defensive SP+ measures points allowed, so a lower figure is a better defence - the rank beside it already accounts for that.

How Confident Is This Rating?

Sources blended5
Source spread±3.1 pts
HFA measured-0.9 pts
HFA applied+1.5 pts

Source spread is how far apart the independent rating systems are on this team, not a margin of error on our own number. A wide spread means the models disagree, which is itself worth knowing.

The measured home field advantage of -0.9 is regressed to +1.5 before it is applied, a difference of 2.4 points. A single venue's raw result carries a lot of noise, so the applied figure is pulled toward the league pattern. See how much is home field advantage really worth.

Record Against 2026 Opponents

Regular and postseason meetings, 2016–2025. Over/under history begins in 2017 and 2020 was shortened by COVID, so game counts vary.
OpponentMetRecordATS
Oregon State11-00-1
Texas Tech60-61-5
UCF52-32-3
Kansas State21-11-1
Oklahoma State21-11-1
Utah11-01-0
Cincinnati61-51-5
Colorado11-01-0
West Virginia21-11-1
Baylor32-12-1

No meeting on record since 2016: Southern, Georgia Southern.

Home, Road and Neutral, 2016–2025

At home35-2226-31 ATS · 57 games
On the road30-2428-26 ATS · 54 games
Neutral site4-75-6 ATS · 11 games

2026 Season Travel Profile

10,328 miles - ranked 26th heaviest in FBS (138 teams)
Cumulative travel of 10,328 round-trip miles across the 2026 season.

Week 010,328 mi total

Week Opponent Distance Cumulative
Week 0-Bye
Week 1Oregon StateHome0 mi
Week 2SouthernHome0 mi
Week 3Texas Tech468 mi935 mi
Week 4Georgia Southern825 mi2,585 mi
Week 5UCFHome2,585 mi
Week 6Kansas State657 mi3,900 mi
Week 7Oklahoma StateHome3,900 mi
Week 8Utah1,200 mi6,301 mi
Week 9-Bye
Week 10CincinnatiHome6,301 mi
Week 11Colorado904 mi8,110 mi
Week 12West Virginia1,109 mi10,328 mi
Week 13BaylorHome10,328 mi
Week 14-Bye
Week 15-Bye
Week 16-Bye
Postseason-Bye

Houston Cougars Season Outlook

Weigman drives a high-powered offense

Conner Weigman has been the engine of Houston's attack, throwing for 305 yards in the opener and later tying a career high with five touchdown passes against Oklahoma State. He has also been effective on the ground, scoring three rushing touchdowns in a comeback win over UCF and adding key runs to seal games. The offense has topped 400 yards in every game and ranks among the national leaders in third-down conversions (32 of 45, 71.1%). With weapons like Amare Thomas (133 yards in Week 1, 126 yards and two scores vs. Oklahoma State) and tight end Patrick Overmyer (four touchdown catches vs. Kansas State, tying an FBS record), the Cougars have shown they can score in a variety of ways.

Defense shows improvement but remains vulnerable

The rebuilt defense, led by coordinator Austin Armstrong, has had its ups and downs. The secondary, anchored by All-Big 12 cornerback Will James and safeties Kentrell Webb and Jordan Allen, was expected to be a strength, but the unit allowed 376 passing yards to Oregon State in Week 1 and later gave up 499 total yards to Oklahoma State. However, the defense has also flashed big-play ability, forcing three turnovers against Southern and getting a key interception from Latreveon McCutchin that sparked the comeback against UCF. The front seven, which lost leading tackler Carlos Allen and sacks leader Eddie Walls III, is still gelling, but the pass rush has shown promise with four sacks in the opener.

Road tests reveal resilience

Houston has faced a challenging schedule with three road games in the first seven weeks, including trips to Texas Tech, Georgia Southern, and Kansas State. The Cougars dropped a heartbreaker at Texas Tech, falling 28-26 when a late two-point conversion came up short, but responded with a gritty 42-28 win at Georgia Southern and a dominant 35-16 victory at Kansas State. The road experience has tested the team's mettle, and with a trip to Utah looming, the Cougars will need to continue to prove they can win away from home.

Special teams and kicking game in flux

Houston entered the season with a new placekicker, and the competition between Zac Yoakam, Evan Noel, and Jonathan Dimas has been ongoing. Dimas made two field goals in the win over UCF, including a key kick to extend the lead. Punter Liam Dougherty has been solid, averaging 44.1 yards per punt. The return game has yet to break out, but the coverage units have been generally reliable. Special teams could be a deciding factor in close games down the stretch.

Big 12 race and what to watch

At 6-1 overall and 3-1 in Big 12 play, Houston is squarely in the conference title hunt. The Cougars have already beaten a ranked opponent in Oklahoma State and have shown they can compete with the league's best. However, the schedule remains tough, with a road trip to undefeated Utah next. The Utes are 6-0 and boast a high-powered offense, presenting perhaps the stiffest test yet for Houston's defense. If the Cougars can continue to get elite play from Weigman and tighten up defensively, they have a real shot at reaching the Big 12 Championship Game. But they'll need to avoid the slow starts that have plagued them at times and find consistency on both sides of the ball.

Sources

Schedule & Results

Frequently Asked Questions

What is Houston Cougars's against-the-spread record in 2026?

Houston Cougars is 3-4 against the spread in the 2026 season, covering 43% of games.

What is Houston Cougars's Blue Chip Analytics power rating?

Houston Cougars holds a Blue Chip Analytics power rating of +14.3, representing their expected point margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field.

What is Houston Cougars's home field advantage rating?

Houston Cougars's home field advantage rating is 1.5 points, the venue adjustment Blue Chip Analytics applies for games at their home stadium.

What is Houston Cougars's 2026 win total?

Houston Cougars's consensus regular-season win total for 2026 is 7.5 wins, priced at -180 over and +145 under. This is the betting market's expectation, not a Blue Chip Analytics projection.

How many miles does Houston Cougars travel in 2026?

Houston Cougars travels 10,328 miles in the 2026 season, ranking 26th heaviest in the FBS.

How does Blue Chip Analytics calculate cumulative travel distance?

Cumulative travel distance counts both the outbound and return journey for every away game. For example, if a team travels 374 miles to play an away game, Blue Chip Analytics counts 748 miles (374 miles there, 374 miles back) toward the cumulative total. Home games and bye weeks add zero miles. The per-week Distance column shows the one-way distance only, as the return trip happens after the game is played.

Houston Cougars: 6-1 overall, 3-4 ATS, power rating +14.3 (2026 records).