Cincinnati Bearcats is 4-2 on the season, 3-3 against the spread, and holds a power rating of +3.2. Cincinnati Bearcats's games are going over the total at 67% this season (4-2), a notable trend for totals bettors. The Cincinnati Bearcats host Texas Tech next in Week 8.
In Week 7 of 2026 the Cincinnati Bearcats Power Rating of +3.2 is 3.2 points above the FBS average according to Blue Chip Analytics. Cincinnati Bearcats have logged 3,603 miles of travel so far, out of a season total of 9,317 miles, ranking 38th heaviest in the FBS.
JC French IV QB, Isaiah Johnson WR, JV Gibson WR, Larenzo Fenner WR, Cade Wolford WR, Evan Tengesdahl OL, Taran Tyo OL, Joe Cotton OL, Zion Johnson RB, Gi'Bran Payne RB, Zylan Perry RB
Josh Hough DL, Chidera Otutu DL, Ty Goodwill S, Kenny Worthy CB, Marquaze Parker EDGE, Brian Simms III LB, Thomas Johnson LB, Filip Maciorowski LB
Stephen Rusnak K, Max Fletcher P
| After | Record | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 0-1 | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| Week 2 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Week 3 | 2-1 | 2-1 | 2-1 |
| Week 5 | 3-1 | 3-1 | 3-1 |
| Week 6 | 4-1 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Week 7 | 5-1 | 4-2 | 4-2 |
| Week 8 | 6-1 | 5-2 | 5-2 |
| Week 9 | 7-1 | 6-2 | 5-3 |
| Week 10 | 7-2 | 6-3 | 6-3 |
| Week 12 | 7-3 | 6-4 | 6-4 |
| Week 13 | 7-4 | 6-5 | 6-5 |
| Week 14 | 7-5 | 6-6 | 7-5 |
| Postseason | 7-6 | 6-7 | 7-6 |
A season record is a record, not a forecast. Blue Chip Analytics' own research finds that beating the closing line repeats at close to zero from one season to the next - see most underrated and overrated teams. Read the table as what happened, not as what is likely to happen next.
Opened +5.0 in the preseason and finished +3.2 after week 8, a move of -1.8 points. High +8.3 (week 5), low +3.2 (week 8).
PreW8
SP+ is an independent opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, one of the systems blended into the Blue Chip Analytics power rating rather than a Blue Chip Analytics number itself. Defensive SP+ measures points allowed, so a lower figure is a better defence - the rank beside it already accounts for that.
Source spread is how far apart the independent rating systems are on this team, not a margin of error on our own number. A wide spread means the models disagree, which is itself worth knowing.
The measured and applied home field advantage agree to within 0.5 points here, so smoothing changes little for this venue.
| Opponent | Met | Record | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Boston College | 1 | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| Miami (OH) | 8 | 7-1 | 5-3 |
| Kansas State | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Arizona | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| West Virginia | 2 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| Texas Tech | 1 | 0-1 | 0-0-1 |
| Utah | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Houston | 6 | 5-1 | 5-1 |
| Iowa State | 3 | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Colorado | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| BYU | 3 | 0-3 | 0-3 |
No meeting on record since 2016: Western Carolina.
Week 09,317 mi total
| Week | Opponent | Distance | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 0 | - | Bye | |
| Week 1 | Boston College | Home | 0 mi |
| Week 2 | Western Carolina | Home | 0 mi |
| Week 3 | Miami (OH) | Home | 0 mi |
| Week 4 | Kansas State | Home | 0 mi |
| Week 5 | Arizona | 1,555 mi | 3,109 mi |
| Week 6 | - | Bye | |
| Week 7 | West Virginia | 247 mi | 3,603 mi |
| Week 8 | Texas Tech | Home | 3,603 mi |
| Week 9 | Utah | Home | 3,603 mi |
| Week 10 | Houston | 895 mi | 5,393 mi |
| Week 11 | Iowa State | 519 mi | 6,431 mi |
| Week 12 | Colorado | Home | 6,431 mi |
| Week 13 | BYU | 1,443 mi | 9,317 mi |
| Week 14 | - | Bye | |
| Week 15 | - | Bye | |
| Week 16 | - | Bye | |
| Postseason | - | Bye | |
Cincinnati opened the season with four straight wins, including a 34-15 victory over Boston College and a 62-10 rout of Western Carolina. The Bearcats covered the spread in both games, but their 3-0 start was built against overmatched opponents. The first real test came against Kansas State, and while Cincinnati won 31-26, the offense managed just 31 points against a Power Four front. The 4-0 start was impressive, but it masked underlying issues that have since been exposed.
Cincinnati's first road game of the season resulted in a 34-7 loss at Arizona, where the offense was held to a season-low seven points. The defense, which had thrived on pressure and turnovers in the first three weeks, was unable to contain Arizona's balanced attack. The following week, West Virginia exposed further cracks, putting up 45 points and 598 total yards in a 45-42 win. The Bearcats' defense has now allowed 34 and 45 points in back-to-back losses, and the tackling in space has been a recurring problem.
Cincinnati's offense is built around a veteran offensive line and a deep running back room. Gi'Bran Payne, a transfer from Notre Dame, rushed for over 100 yards in each of the first two games, and JC French IV adds a rushing threat from the quarterback position. The Bearcats rushed for 255 yards against Boston College and 418 against Western Carolina. However, when forced to throw, French has been efficient but not prolific. He attempted only 14 passes against Boston College and 18 in the first half against Western Carolina. Against West Virginia, he threw for a career-high 389 yards and three touchdowns, showing he can carry the offense when needed, but consistency remains a question.
First-year defensive coordinator Nate Woody installed an aggressive 3-4 scheme designed to create chaos and turnovers. The unit recorded four sacks and two turnovers against Boston College and overwhelmed Western Carolina. However, Miami (OH) scored 31 points and kept the game within four points, and Arizona and West Virginia each scored 34 and 45 points, respectively. The pressure scheme has generated sacks, but it has also left the rebuilt secondary exposed. Marquaze Parker and the edge rushers must generate consistent pressure without giving up big plays. The Bearcats have forced turnovers, but they have also allowed explosive passing games, as evidenced by West Virginia's 464 passing yards.
Cincinnati has lost two straight and sits at 4-2 overall and 1-2 in Big 12 play. The upcoming game against Texas Tech, a 6-0 team with a power rating of 17.1, will be a major test. The Bearcats will need to establish their run game to control the clock and keep the Red Raiders' high-powered offense off the field. Defensively, they must find a way to generate pressure without exposing their secondary. The return of key players from injury and the continued development of JC French IV will be crucial. If Cincinnati can rediscover the form that led to its 4-0 start, a bowl game is still within reach, but the margin for error is shrinking.
Cincinnati Bearcats is 3-3 against the spread in the 2026 season, covering 50% of games.
Cincinnati Bearcats holds a Blue Chip Analytics power rating of +3.2, representing their expected point margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field.
Cincinnati Bearcats's home field advantage rating is 2.8 points, the venue adjustment Blue Chip Analytics applies for games at their home stadium.
Cincinnati Bearcats's consensus regular-season win total for 2026 is 5.5 wins, priced at +120 over and -150 under. This is the betting market's expectation, not a Blue Chip Analytics projection.
Cincinnati Bearcats travels 9,317 miles in the 2026 season, ranking 38th heaviest in the FBS.
Cumulative travel distance counts both the outbound and return journey for every away game. For example, if a team travels 374 miles to play an away game, Blue Chip Analytics counts 748 miles (374 miles there, 374 miles back) toward the cumulative total. Home games and bye weeks add zero miles. The per-week Distance column shows the one-way distance only, as the return trip happens after the game is played.
Cincinnati Bearcats: 4-2 overall, 3-3 ATS, power rating +3.2 (2026 records).
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