Cincinnati Bearcats

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Cincinnati Bearcats is 1-0 on the season, 1-0 against the spread, and holds a power rating of +4.3. Cincinnati Bearcats enters the season with a power rating of +4.3, placing them above average relative to the FBS midpoint. The Cincinnati Bearcats host Western Carolina next in Week 2. In 2025, Cincinnati Bearcats went 7-6 overall, 6-7 against the spread, and 7-6 on totals.

Conference: Big 12 Conference
Stadium: Nippert Stadium, Cincinnati, OH
Power Rating (most current): +4.3
HFA Rating:2.8 pts
2026 Win Total:5.5
2026 Record: 1-0
2026 ATS: 1-0
2026 O/U: 0-1

2026 Schedule & Results

In Week 1 of 2026 the Cincinnati Bearcats Power Rating of +4.3 is 4.3 points above the FBS average according to Blue Chip Analytics. Cincinnati Bearcats have logged 0 miles of travel so far, out of a season total of 9,317 miles, ranking 38th heaviest in the FBS.

Cincinnati Bearcats Coaching Staff and Key Players

Head coachScott Satterfield
Tenure3 seasons
Record at school15-22
Career record91-70 (13 seasons)
Offensive coordinatorsNic Cardwell, Pete Thomas
Defensive coordinatorsNate Woody, Cortney Braswell

Offense

JC French IV QB, Isaiah Johnson WR, JV Gibson WR, Larenzo Fenner WR, Cade Wolford WR, Evan Tengesdahl OL, Taran Tyo OL, Joe Cotton OL, Zion Johnson RB, Gi'Bran Payne RB, Zylan Perry RB

Defense

Josh Hough DL, Chidera Otutu DL, Ty Goodwill S, Kenny Worthy CB, Marquaze Parker EDGE, Brian Simms III LB, Thomas Johnson LB, Filip Maciorowski LB

Special teams

Stephen Rusnak K, Max Fletcher P

2025 Season in Review

Record7-6 ATS6-7 O/U7-6
Running totals after each week played. Cumulative, not per week.
AfterRecordATSO/U
Week 10-11-00-1
Week 21-11-11-1
Week 32-12-12-1
Week 53-13-13-1
Week 64-14-14-1
Week 75-14-24-2
Week 86-15-25-2
Week 97-16-25-3
Week 107-26-36-3
Week 127-36-46-4
Week 137-46-56-5
Week 147-56-67-5
Postseason7-66-77-6

A season record is a record, not a forecast. Blue Chip Analytics' own research finds that beating the closing line repeats at close to zero from one season to the next - see most underrated and overrated teams. Read the table as what happened, not as what is likely to happen next.

2025 Power Rating Trajectory

Opened +8.1 in the preseason and finished +14.0 after the postseason, a move of +5.9 points. High +14.0 (the postseason), low +8.1 (the preseason).

Line chart of the 2025 Blue Chip Analytics power rating across 18 points, from +8.1 to +14.0.

PrePost

Cincinnati Bearcats SP+ Profile

Offence+29.646 of 138higher is better
Defence+25.465 of 138lower is better
Special teams+0.346 of 138higher is better

SP+ is an independent opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, one of the systems blended into the Blue Chip Analytics power rating rather than a Blue Chip Analytics number itself. Defensive SP+ measures points allowed, so a lower figure is a better defence - the rank beside it already accounts for that.

How Confident Is This Rating?

Sources blended5
Source spread±3.7 pts
HFA measured+3.2 pts
HFA applied+2.8 pts

Source spread is how far apart the independent rating systems are on this team, not a margin of error on our own number. A wide spread means the models disagree, which is itself worth knowing.

The measured and applied home field advantage agree to within 0.5 points here, so smoothing changes little for this venue.

Record Against 2026 Opponents

Regular and postseason meetings, 2016–2025. Over/under history begins in 2017 and 2020 was shortened by COVID, so game counts vary.
OpponentMetRecordATS
Boston College11-01-0
Miami (OH)87-15-3
Kansas State10-10-1
Arizona10-10-1
West Virginia20-20-2
Texas Tech10-10-0-1
Utah10-10-1
Houston65-15-1
Iowa State31-21-2
Colorado10-10-1
BYU30-30-3

No meeting on record since 2016: Western Carolina.

Home, Road and Neutral, 2016–2025

At home45-2026-38-1 ATS · 65 games
On the road28-2423-26-3 ATS · 52 games
Neutral site3-53-5 ATS · 8 games

2026 Season Travel Profile

9,317 miles - ranked 38th heaviest in FBS (138 teams)
Cumulative travel of 9,317 round-trip miles across the 2026 season.

Week 09,317 mi total

Week Opponent Distance Cumulative
Week 0-Bye
Week 1Boston CollegeHome0 mi
Week 2Western CarolinaHome0 mi
Week 3Miami (OH)Home0 mi
Week 4Kansas StateHome0 mi
Week 5Arizona1,555 mi3,109 mi
Week 6-Bye
Week 7West Virginia247 mi3,603 mi
Week 8Texas TechHome3,603 mi
Week 9UtahHome3,603 mi
Week 10Houston895 mi5,393 mi
Week 11Iowa State519 mi6,431 mi
Week 12ColoradoHome6,431 mi
Week 13BYU1,443 mi9,317 mi
Week 14-Bye
Week 15-Bye
Week 16-Bye
Postseason-Bye

Cincinnati Bearcats Season Outlook

A Rebuilt Offense Under New Leadership

Cincinnati enters 2026 with almost an entirely new skill group on offense. Quarterback Brendan Sorsby departed for Texas Tech, and the Bearcats brought in Georgia Southern's JC French IV to run the show. French is not the same explosive athlete as Sorsby, but he is a proven winner who fits the play-action, ground-heavy attack that offensive coordinator Nic Cardwell and Pete Thomas want to run. The offensive line is the clear strength, returning three starters including All-American Evan Tengesdahl, Taran Tyo, and left tackle Joe Cotton. With Zion Johnson, Gi'Bran Payne, and Zylan Perry in the backfield, the running game should be the engine that sets up everything else. The receiving corps is largely new, but Isaiah Johnson brings elite speed and should be the top target, with JV Gibson, Larenzo Fenner, and Cade Wolford filling out the rotation.

New Defensive Scheme Promises More Chaos

First-year defensive coordinator Nate Woody is installing a pressure-based 3-3-5 scheme, a departure from what the Bearcats ran in 2025. The defense lost NFL-bound tackles Jake Golday and Dontay Corleone, plus key defensive backs Christian Harrison and Jiquan Sanks. To fill those holes, Cincinnati added Josh Hough and Chidera Otutu on the interior, and safety Ty Goodwill and cornerback Kenny Worthy in the secondary. Marquaze Parker, who has been consistent since his true freshman year, is the top pass-rusher, with Brian Simms III and Thomas Johnson at outside linebacker. Northern Illinois transfer Filip Maciorowski is expected to play the high-volume tackler role that Golday vacated. The scheme is designed to create more turnovers, which was a weakness last season, and the added investment on defense should lead to more disruptive plays.

Special Teams Stability and Return Threats

The Bearcats return both starting specialists, kicker Stephen Rusnak and punter Max Fletcher, who each had strong first seasons as starters. Their consistency gives Cincinnati a reliable edge in field position and scoring. On returns, Isaiah Johnson is the obvious choice for kickoffs and punts, as he is the fastest and shiftiest player on the roster. His ability to break a big return could be a game-changer in close contests, especially early in the season while the new offense and defense are still finding their footing.

High Expectations Despite Roster Turnover

The preseason outlook suggests it will be hard for Cincinnati to top its 2025 performance given the amount of departed talent, but the pieces are in place for a strong season. The offensive line and running back depth should make French's transition smoother, and the new defensive scheme should generate more turnovers. The Bearcats are favored by a touchdown in their opener against Boston College, with a 72% win probability according to prediction markets. That early test will show how quickly the new pieces can gel. The schedule includes significant travel, over 7,000 miles total, which could be a factor in road games. The key will be whether French can manage games effectively and whether the defense can force the chaos that Woody's scheme promises.

Key Players to Watch and Potential Breakouts

Beyond the obvious names, several players could define Cincinnati's season. Isaiah Johnson is not just a return threat; he is the deep threat who can stretch defenses and open up the running game. On defense, Marquaze Parker is the most proven pass-rusher and should see a massive role. Filip Maciorowski is an intriguing addition who could lead the team in tackles. The offensive line, anchored by Tengesdahl and Cotton, will be the unit that makes everything work. If the running game can control the clock and the defense can force turnovers, Cincinnati could exceed expectations. The coaching staff, led by Scott Satterfield, is under pressure after a 15-22 record in three years, and a strong season would be a major statement.

Sources

Schedule & Results

Frequently Asked Questions

What is Cincinnati Bearcats's against-the-spread record in 2026?

Cincinnati Bearcats is 1-0 against the spread in the 2026 season, covering 100% of games.

What is Cincinnati Bearcats's Blue Chip Analytics power rating?

Cincinnati Bearcats holds a Blue Chip Analytics power rating of +4.3, representing their expected point margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field.

What is Cincinnati Bearcats's home field advantage rating?

Cincinnati Bearcats's home field advantage rating is 2.8 points, the venue adjustment Blue Chip Analytics applies for games at their home stadium.

What is Cincinnati Bearcats's 2026 win total?

Cincinnati Bearcats's consensus regular-season win total for 2026 is 5.5 wins, priced at +120 over and -150 under. This is the betting market's expectation, not a Blue Chip Analytics projection.

How many miles does Cincinnati Bearcats travel in 2026?

Cincinnati Bearcats travels 9,317 miles in the 2026 season, ranking 38th heaviest in the FBS.

How does Blue Chip Analytics calculate cumulative travel distance?

Cumulative travel distance counts both the outbound and return journey for every away game. For example, if a team travels 374 miles to play an away game, Blue Chip Analytics counts 748 miles (374 miles there, 374 miles back) toward the cumulative total. Home games and bye weeks add zero miles. The per-week Distance column shows the one-way distance only, as the return trip happens after the game is played.

Cincinnati Bearcats: 1-0 overall, 1-0 ATS, power rating +4.3 (2026 records).