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Colorado Buffaloes is 2-4 on the season, 2-4 against the spread, and holds a power rating of -2.2. Colorado Buffaloes is covering at just 39% since the start of last season (7-11), below the FBS average, a notable trend for spread bettors. The Colorado Buffaloes head to Oklahoma State next in Week 8.
In Week 7 of 2026 the Colorado Buffaloes Power Rating of -2.2 is 2.2 points below the FBS average according to Blue Chip Analytics. Colorado Buffaloes have logged 5,798 miles of travel so far, out of a season total of 10,224 miles, ranking 29th heaviest in the FBS.
Julian Lewis QB, Isaac Wilson QB, Danny Scudero WR, DeKalon Taylor RB, Damian Henderson II RB, Richard Young RB, Micah Welch RB, DeAndre Moore Jr. WR, Kam Perry WR, Ernest Campbell WR, Joseph Williams WR, Zach Atkins TE, Demetrius Hunter OL
Santana Hopper DL, Toby Anene EDGE, Balansama Kamara EDGE, Lamont Lester Jr. EDGE, Liona Lefau LB, Boo Carter CB, Cree Thomas CB, Randon Fontenette S, Naeten Mitchell S
Damon Greaves P, Elliot Arnold K
| After | Record | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Week 2 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 0-2 |
| Week 3 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Week 4 | 2-2 | 2-2 | 2-2 |
| Week 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Week 6 | 2-4 | 3-3 | 2-4 |
| Week 7 | 3-4 | 4-3 | 2-5 |
| Week 9 | 3-5 | 4-4 | 3-5 |
| Week 10 | 3-6 | 4-5 | 4-5 |
| Week 11 | 3-7 | 4-6 | 4-6 |
| Week 13 | 3-8 | 4-7 | 5-6 |
| Week 14 | 3-9 | 5-7 | 5-7 |
A season record is a record, not a forecast. Blue Chip Analytics' own research finds that beating the closing line repeats at close to zero from one season to the next - see most underrated and overrated teams. Read the table as what happened, not as what is likely to happen next.
Opened -0.5 in the preseason and finished -2.2 after week 8, a move of -1.8 points. High +1.8 (week 3), low -4.1 (week 6).
PreW8
SP+ is an independent opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, one of the systems blended into the Blue Chip Analytics power rating rather than a Blue Chip Analytics number itself. Defensive SP+ measures points allowed, so a lower figure is a better defence - the rank beside it already accounts for that.
Source spread is how far apart the independent rating systems are on this team, not a margin of error on our own number. A wide spread means the models disagree, which is itself worth knowing.
The measured home field advantage of +4.1 is regressed to +2.9 before it is applied, a difference of 1.2 points. A single venue's raw result carries a lot of noise, so the applied figure is pulled toward the league pattern. See how much is home field advantage really worth.
| Opponent | Met | Record | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Georgia Tech | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Baylor | 1 | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| Texas Tech | 1 | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| Utah | 10 | 2-8 | 3-7 |
| Oklahoma State | 2 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Kansas State | 2 | 0-2 | 2-0 |
| Arizona State | 8 | 4-4 | 4-4 |
| Houston | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Cincinnati | 1 | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| UCF | 1 | 1-0 | 1-0 |
No meeting on record since 2016: Weber State, Northwestern.
Week 010,224 mi total
| Week | Opponent | Distance | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 0 | - | Bye | |
| Week 1 | Georgia Tech | 1,230 mi | 2,460 mi |
| Week 2 | Weber State | Home | 2,460 mi |
| Week 3 | Northwestern | 929 mi | 4,317 mi |
| Week 4 | Baylor | 740 mi | 5,798 mi |
| Week 5 | Texas Tech | Home | 5,798 mi |
| Week 6 | - | Bye | |
| Week 7 | Utah | Home | 5,798 mi |
| Week 8 | Oklahoma State | 521 mi | 6,839 mi |
| Week 9 | Kansas State | Home | 6,839 mi |
| Week 10 | Arizona State | 585 mi | 8,010 mi |
| Week 11 | Houston | Home | 8,010 mi |
| Week 12 | Cincinnati | 1,107 mi | 10,224 mi |
| Week 13 | UCF | Home | 10,224 mi |
| Week 14 | - | Bye | |
| Week 15 | - | Bye | |
| Week 16 | - | Bye | |
| Postseason | - | Bye | |
Colorado opened 2026 with a dramatic 14-13 win at Georgia Tech, sealed by Julian Lewis's 20-yard touchdown pass to Charlie Williams with 42 seconds left and a blocked field goal by Boo Carter. A 52-21 rout of FCS Weber State followed, but the Buffaloes have since dropped four straight: a 41-7 blowout at Northwestern, a 23-13 loss at Baylor, a 29-7 home defeat to Texas Tech, and a 27-24 heartbreaker to Utah. At 2-4 overall and 0-3 in Big 12 play, the season is at a crossroads.
Brennan Marion's Go-Go scheme was supposed to ignite the offense, and it did against Weber State when Julian Lewis threw four first-half touchdowns and set a school record for first-quarter passing yards. But Lewis was pulled at halftime against Baylor and benched entirely against Texas Tech in favor of Isaac Wilson, who threw three interceptions in that start. Wilson showed resilience against Utah with 256 yards and two touchdowns, nearly leading a comeback, but the lack of a settled starter has prevented the offense from finding rhythm. The Buffaloes have committed multiple turnovers in three straight games and are converting third downs at an alarming rate (3 of 15 at Baylor).
Despite ranking 133rd in run defense last season, the 2026 unit has been stout. Colorado held Georgia Tech to 51 rushing yards, limited Weber State to 127 (most of which came after a 52-14 lead), and held Baylor to just 3.3 yards per carry. The front seven, led by transfers like Santana Hopper and Liona Lefau, has exceeded expectations. However, the defense has been hung out to dry by turnovers and penalties, and the pass defense has had breakdowns, as seen in the Northwestern and Utah games.
Colorado has been flagged 13 times for 107 yards against Weber State, 8 times for 84 yards against Texas Tech, and 10 times for 93 yards against Utah. The Buffaloes are the most penalized team in the Big 12. Turnovers have been equally damaging: four interceptions against Texas Tech (including a pick-six), three first-half turnovers against Northwestern, and two interceptions from Wilson against Utah. These self-inflicted wounds have consistently put the defense in bad spots and stalled offensive drives.
With six games remaining, Colorado needs four wins to reach a bowl game. The schedule still includes road trips to Oklahoma State, Arizona, and TCU, plus home games against Arizona State, West Virginia, and Kansas. The Buffaloes have shown flashes of brilliance, particularly in the passing game with Joseph Williams and DeAndre Moore Jr., but they must protect the football and reduce penalties to have a chance. The defense has been good enough to keep them in games, but the offense's inconsistency and the quarterback uncertainty remain the biggest obstacles. If Isaac Wilson can build on his second-half performance against Utah and the line can provide protection, Colorado could still string together wins. But time is running out.
Colorado Buffaloes is 2-4 against the spread in the 2026 season, covering 33% of games.
Colorado Buffaloes holds a Blue Chip Analytics power rating of -2.2, representing their expected point margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field.
Colorado Buffaloes's home field advantage rating is 2.9 points, the venue adjustment Blue Chip Analytics applies for games at their home stadium.
Colorado Buffaloes's consensus regular-season win total for 2026 is 4.5 wins, priced at +110 over and -140 under. This is the betting market's expectation, not a Blue Chip Analytics projection.
Colorado Buffaloes travels 10,224 miles in the 2026 season, ranking 29th heaviest in the FBS.
Cumulative travel distance counts both the outbound and return journey for every away game. For example, if a team travels 374 miles to play an away game, Blue Chip Analytics counts 748 miles (374 miles there, 374 miles back) toward the cumulative total. Home games and bye weeks add zero miles. The per-week Distance column shows the one-way distance only, as the return trip happens after the game is played.
Colorado Buffaloes: 2-4 overall, 2-4 ATS, power rating -2.2 (2026 records).