UNLV defeated Idaho State 38–31 in a one-score game. Idaho State covered by 23.5; Game went Over by 1.5.
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Positive adjustment = favours home team
This game was played indoors at Allegiant Stadium in a climate-controlled environment. Weather was not a factor.
~72°F
Quarterback Jordan Cooke threw for 380 yards and a touchdown on 30-of-50 passing, but also threw three interceptions, contributing to four total turnovers. This inconsistency will need to be addressed to improve offensive efficiency.
Idaho State led 31-24 in the fourth quarter, showing ability to score against a UNLV defense that had four interceptions. The offense demonstrated resilience, but late-game execution faltered with turnovers and a costly intentional grounding penalty.
UNLV's Jai'Den Thomas rushed for 147 yards and three touchdowns on just 10 carries, including long runs of 39 and 70 yards. The defense allowed big plays, which will be a key area to tighten up for future games.
Despite a fourth-quarter lead, Idaho State failed to close out the game due to turnovers and a critical intentional grounding penalty on a potential game-tying drive. Improving composure and decision-making in clutch moments is essential.
Idaho State travels 490 miles to this game, a moderate road trip.
Idaho State arrives with a 1-hour body clock shift.
UNLV won by 7 in a one-score game.
Idaho State covered the spread comfortably.
The total went Over by 1.5 points.
Heat (97.3°F) may be a conditioning factor, particularly in the second half.
Full conditions are shown in the data panel above. Forecast data sourced from WeatherAPI.com. Use the Line Value Calculator to apply a manual weather adjustment to your projected line.
Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favour UNLV (-6.8) over Idaho State (-20.4) by 13.6 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. UNLV brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.9). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.
Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.
UNLV won and Idaho State covered the spread.
