Iowa State Cyclones is 1-0 on the season, 0-1 against the spread, and holds a power rating of +5.1. Iowa State Cyclones enters the season with a power rating of +5.1, placing them above average relative to the FBS midpoint. The Iowa State Cyclones head to Iowa next in Week 2. In 2025, Iowa State Cyclones went 8-4 overall, 6-6 against the spread, and 4-7 on totals.
In Week 1 of 2026 the Iowa State Cyclones Power Rating of +5.1 is 5.1 points above the FBS average according to Blue Chip Analytics. Iowa State Cyclones have logged 0 miles of travel so far, out of a season total of 8,255 miles, ranking 53rd heaviest in the FBS.
Jaylen Raynor QB, Aiden Flora RB, Cameron Pettaway RB, Dominic Overby WR, Omari Hayes WR, Cody Jackson WR, Jake Taylor OL, Colin Amick OL, Braden Smith OL
Zaimir Hawk DL, Jace J. Gilbert DL, Carson Willich LB, David Coffey CB, Drew Surges S, Sullivan Schlimgen LB, Max Baloun DL, Isaac Terrell DL, Malaki Ta'ase DL, Duhron Goodman S, Trillion Sorrell CB
Kyle Konrardy K, Ethan Gurney P
| After | Record | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 0 | 1-0 | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| Week 1 | 2-0 | 2-0 | 1-1 |
| Week 2 | 3-0 | 3-0 | 1-1 |
| Week 3 | 4-0 | 3-1 | 1-2 |
| Week 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 | 2-2 |
| Week 6 | 5-1 | 4-2 | 3-2 |
| Week 7 | 5-2 | 4-3 | 3-3 |
| Week 9 | 5-3 | 4-4 | 4-3 |
| Week 10 | 5-4 | 4-5 | 4-4 |
| Week 11 | 6-4 | 5-5 | 4-5 |
| Week 13 | 7-4 | 6-5 | 4-6 |
| Week 14 | 8-4 | 6-6 | 4-7 |
A season record is a record, not a forecast. Blue Chip Analytics' own research finds that beating the closing line repeats at close to zero from one season to the next - see most underrated and overrated teams. Read the table as what happened, not as what is likely to happen next.
Opened +5.2 in the preseason and finished +5.1 after week 2, a move of -0.1 points. High +5.2 (the preseason), low +4.4 (week 1).
PreW2
SP+ is an independent opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, one of the systems blended into the Blue Chip Analytics power rating rather than a Blue Chip Analytics number itself. Defensive SP+ measures points allowed, so a lower figure is a better defence - the rank beside it already accounts for that.
Source spread is how far apart the independent rating systems are on this team, not a margin of error on our own number. A wide spread means the models disagree, which is itself worth knowing.
The measured and applied home field advantage agree to within 0.8 points here, so smoothing changes little for this venue.
| Opponent | Met | Record | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Southeast Missouri State | 1 | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| Iowa | 9 | 3-6 | 5-4 |
| Utah | 1 | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| West Virginia | 8 | 5-3 | 5-3 |
| BYU | 2 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Arizona | 1 | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| Oklahoma State | 9 | 4-5 | 4-4-1 |
| Baylor | 9 | 5-4 | 4-5 |
| Cincinnati | 3 | 2-1 | 2-1 |
| UCF | 1 | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| Kansas State | 10 | 6-4 | 7-2-1 |
No meeting on record since 2016: Bowling Green.
Week 08,255 mi total
| Week | Opponent | Distance | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 0 | - | Bye | |
| Week 1 | Southeast Missouri State | Home | 0 mi |
| Week 2 | Iowa | 110 mi | 221 mi |
| Week 3 | Bowling Green | Home | 221 mi |
| Week 4 | Utah | Home | 221 mi |
| Week 5 | West Virginia | Home | 221 mi |
| Week 6 | BYU | 946 mi | 2,113 mi |
| Week 7 | - | Bye | |
| Week 8 | Arizona | 1,167 mi | 4,446 mi |
| Week 9 | Oklahoma State | Home | 4,446 mi |
| Week 10 | Baylor | 746 mi | 5,938 mi |
| Week 11 | Cincinnati | Home | 5,938 mi |
| Week 12 | UCF | 1,159 mi | 8,255 mi |
| Week 13 | Kansas State | Home | 8,255 mi |
| Week 14 | - | Bye | |
| Week 15 | - | Bye | |
| Week 16 | - | Bye | |
| Postseason | - | Bye | |
Iowa State opened the Jimmy Rogers era with a 38-10 victory over Southeast Missouri State, but the head coach was quick to note the performance was far from polished. The Cyclones won comfortably thanks to four total touchdowns from quarterback Jaylen Raynor, yet they failed to cover a 30.5-point spread and the game went under the total. Rogers acknowledged the team needs to improve in several areas, especially with tougher opponents ahead. The roster features 81 newcomers, so early chemistry issues are expected, but the margin of victory against an FCS opponent raises questions about how quickly this group can gel.
Raynor, a three-year starter at Arkansas State who transferred to Ames, showed why he was brought in to replace Rocco Becht. In the opener, he threw for 184 yards and two touchdowns while adding 32 rushing yards and two more scores on the ground. His elusiveness in the pocket was on display, even if his straight-line speed is not elite. Raynor's experience starting 33 games at the FBS level gives Iowa State a steady hand under center, which is crucial for a team breaking in a new offensive system and an almost entirely rebuilt offensive line.
The Cyclones' defense, coordinated by Jesse Bobbit, recorded six sacks in the opener, with defensive end Isaac Terrell leading the way with three. Terrell, who followed Rogers from Washington State, became the first Iowa State player since 2006 to post multiple sacks in his debut. The unit also forced three takeaways and held Southeast Missouri State to just 209 total yards. However, the Redhawks managed 67 rushing yards, and Iowa State's offense controlled the ball for 14 fewer minutes, which could be a concern against more balanced attacks. The defense will need to tighten up against the run as the schedule gets tougher.
The Cyclones' offensive line, featuring transfers Jake Taylor, Colin Amick, and Braden Smith, has yet to prove it can open consistent running lanes. Iowa State rushed for only 108 yards in the opener, snapping a streak of seven straight games with at least 150 yards on the ground. The passing game showed explosiveness with five plays of 20-plus yards, but receiver Dominic Overby led the team with just 85 yards, and no player topped 100 yards rushing or receiving, ending a nine-game streak. Running backs Aiden Flora and Cameron Pettaway will need more support from the line as the season progresses.
Kicker Kyle Konrardy, one of the few holdovers from last season, connected on a 33-yard field goal in the opener, giving Iowa State a dependable scoring option. The return game also has potential, with Pettaway having led the nation in kickoff return average last season and Flora averaging 26.1 yards per punt return with a touchdown in 2025. While the offense and defense are still finding their footing, special teams could keep Iowa State competitive in close games, especially early in the season when the new-look roster is still developing.
Iowa State Cyclones is 0-1 against the spread in the 2026 season, covering 0% of games.
Iowa State Cyclones holds a Blue Chip Analytics power rating of +5.1, representing their expected point margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field.
Iowa State Cyclones's home field advantage rating is 2.9 points, the venue adjustment Blue Chip Analytics applies for games at their home stadium.
Iowa State Cyclones's consensus regular-season win total for 2026 is 4.5 wins, priced at -160 over and +130 under. This is the betting market's expectation, not a Blue Chip Analytics projection.
Iowa State Cyclones travels 8,255 miles in the 2026 season, ranking 53rd heaviest in the FBS.
Cumulative travel distance counts both the outbound and return journey for every away game. For example, if a team travels 374 miles to play an away game, Blue Chip Analytics counts 748 miles (374 miles there, 374 miles back) toward the cumulative total. Home games and bye weeks add zero miles. The per-week Distance column shows the one-way distance only, as the return trip happens after the game is played.
Iowa State Cyclones: 1-0 overall, 0-1 ATS, power rating +5.1 (2026 records).
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