Week 13 • November 28, 2026, 05:00 AM UTC
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Big 12
Power Rank: 6.4
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Big 12
Power Rank: 8.7

By · Last updated

Houston (power rating: 8.7) holds a 2.3-point edge over Baylor (6.4) on a neutral field per Blue Chip Analytics. Houston's home field adds 2.2 points to that edge at TDECU Stadium. See Line Value below.

General Information

Week: Week 13
Kick Off (at stadium): 11:00 PM CST
Stadium: TDECU Stadium
Capacity: 40,000
Elevation: 52 ft
HFA Rating: 2.2
Playing Surface: Artificial Turf

Betting Information

Spread None
Total (O/U) -
Odds Implied Score -
Power Rank Implied Line Houston -2.3

Line Value Calculator

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Baylor
Houston
Home field — TDECU Stadium
Weather: Clear
Travel impact

Positive adjustment = favours home team

Does weather affect Baylor vs Houston at TDECU Stadium?

Game-time forecast at TDECU Stadium shows Clear — 79.0°F, Heat Index 83.5°F with winds of 4.5 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. The weather adjustment has been pre-filled in the Line Value Calculator above — adjust manually if conditions change before kick-off.

Weather Conditions

Forecast for: July 05, 2026
Clear

Clear

79.0°F

Heat Index: 83.5°F
Wind: 4.5 mph SSW
Gusts: 6.5 mph
Precipitation: 0.0"
Humidity: 79%
Rain Chance: 9%
Snow Chance: 0%

Travel & Rest

Baylor (Away)

This Week: 164.5 miles
Last Week: Home Game
Season Total: 8435.5 miles
Body Clock Time: 23:00
Rest Days: 7

Houston (Home)

This Week: 0.0 miles
Last Week: 2218.5 miles
Season Total: 10328.3 miles
Body Clock Time: 23:00
Rest Days: 7

What are the key factors for Baylor vs Houston?

Baylor: Key Factors

New-look offense with DJ Lagway at quarterback

Baylor enters the season with a completely revamped offense, headlined by former 5-star QB DJ Lagway. He will be throwing to a receiving corps that lost its top four targets from last year, with Louis Brown IV, Jadon Porter, and Dre'lon Miller expected to step up. The offensive line also features four new starters, so cohesion and protection will be critical against Auburn's defense.

Aggressive defensive scheme under new coordinator

First-year DC Joe Klanderman has installed an attacking, havoc-creating defense, a stark contrast to last year's passive approach. The Bears added several transfer pass rushers (Hosea Wheeler, Jamaal Whyce Jr., Ryan Davis, Garrick Ponder) to generate pressure. However, consistency remains a concern, as last year's defense was prone to giving up big runs.

Neutral-site game with no home-field advantage

This game is played in a dome with zero home-field advantage for either team. Travel is roughly equal (756 miles for Baylor), so the environment should not be a significant factor. The indoor setting favors passing attacks, which could benefit Lagway and Baylor's new-look offense.

Special teams uncertainty with new kicker

Baylor returns elite punter Palmer Williams, but kicker Rhett Armstrong has never attempted a field goal in a college game. In a potentially close contest, field goal reliability could be a deciding factor. The return game is also unsettled, adding another variable.

High-pressure season for head coach Dave Aranda

Aranda is coaching for his job in 2026 after a 36-37 record through six seasons. The team has undergone significant roster turnover, and the pressure to win immediately is immense. This opener against Auburn will set the tone for the entire season and could impact team morale and execution.

Houston: Key Factors

Conner Weigman's dual-threat ability is the offensive engine

Weigman is coming off a career-best season with 2,705 passing yards, 25 touchdowns, 700 rushing yards, and 11 rushing TDs. His mobility and toughness are central to Houston's offense, and he will be the focal point against Oregon State. The retooled offensive line with three portal starters must protect him and open lanes for Makhi Hughes.

Rebuilt defense faces early test against Oregon State's offense

Houston lost key contributors on defense, including leading tackler Carlos Allen and sack leader Eddie Walls III. The secondary is the strength with All-Big 12 corner Will James and safeties Kentrell Webb and Jordan Allen, but the front seven has new faces. Edge rushers Brandon Mack II and Latreveon McCutchin, plus interior depth, must step up quickly.

Home-field advantage and favorable weather conditions

Houston plays at home with a venue HFA of 2.2, and the forecast calls for patchy rain, 72°F, and 13 mph wind. The mild conditions should not significantly hinder the passing game, but the wind could affect deep throws and kicking. Houston's speed and experience in similar weather may provide an edge.

New kicker adds uncertainty to special teams

Houston will debut a new placekicker, with Zac Yoakam as the only candidate with college experience. In a potentially close game, field goal reliability could be critical. Punter Liam Dougherty is reliable with a 44.1-yard average, but the kicking game is an unknown factor.

Offensive weapons provide multiple threats

Wide receiver Amare Thomas (12 TD catches, near 1,000 yards) and tight end Patrick Overmyer (NFL-caliber transfer) give Weigman strong targets. Running back Makhi Hughes, who rushed for nearly 3,000 yards at Tulane, adds a powerful ground game. This balanced attack will test Oregon State's defense.

What do the matchup numbers say?

Baylor travels 165 miles to this game, a short road trip.

How do Baylor and Houston compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favour Houston (8.7) over Baylor (6.4) by 2.3 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. Houston brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.2). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input — cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Sources

Weather

Blue Chip Analytics rates Houston as the stronger team by 2.3 points on a neutral field; apply HFA and travel context before finalising a line read.