Week 10 • November 07, 2026, 05:00 AM UTC
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Big 12
Power Rank: 1.5
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Big 12
Power Rank: 6.4

By · Last updated

Baylor (power rating: 6.4) holds a 4.9-point edge over Iowa State (1.5) on a neutral field per Blue Chip Analytics. Baylor's home field adds 2.4 points to that edge at McLane Stadium. Iowa State travels 746 miles for this game — check the travel panel for rest and body clock context. See Line Value below.

General Information

Week: Week 10
Kick Off (at stadium): 11:00 PM CST
Stadium: McLane Stadium
Capacity: 45,140
Elevation: 404 ft
HFA Rating: 2.4
Playing Surface: Artificial Turf

Betting Information

Spread None
Total (O/U) -
Odds Implied Score -
Power Rank Implied Line Baylor -4.9

Line Value Calculator

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Iowa State
Baylor
Home field — McLane Stadium
Weather: Clear
Travel impact

Positive adjustment = favours home team

Does weather affect Iowa State vs Baylor at McLane Stadium?

Game-time forecast at McLane Stadium shows Clear — 76.6°F, Heat Index 80.1°F with winds of 7.6 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. The weather adjustment has been pre-filled in the Line Value Calculator above — adjust manually if conditions change before kick-off.

Weather Conditions

Forecast for: July 05, 2026
Clear

Clear

76.6°F

Heat Index: 80.1°F
Wind: 7.6 mph S
Gusts: 13.6 mph
Precipitation: 0.0"
Humidity: 76%
Rain Chance: 9%
Snow Chance: 0%

Travel & Rest

Iowa State (Away)

This Week: 746.1 miles
Last Week: Home Game
Season Total: 5192.1 miles
Body Clock Time: 23:00
Rest Days: 7

Baylor (Home)

This Week: 0.0 miles
Last Week: 1948.5 miles
Season Total: 6250.9 miles
Body Clock Time: 23:00
Rest Days: 7

What are the key factors for Iowa State vs Baylor?

Iowa State: Key Factors

Massive roster turnover creates cohesion questions

Iowa State lost over 50 players to the portal, including 16 starters and 24 who followed the former coach to Penn State. The team added more than 45 transfers, meaning nearly the entire roster is new. This lack of continuity could lead to early-season execution issues, especially on offense where the line is almost entirely rebuilt and the quarterback is a newcomer.

New offensive system relies on downhill run and play-action

Offensive coordinator Tyler Roehl, returning from the Detroit Lions, is expected to emphasize downhill rushing and play-action passing. The running back duo of Aiden Flora and MAC Freshman of the Year Cameron Pettaway provides a strong foundation, but the rebuilt offensive line must gel quickly for the scheme to work effectively.

Defense retains key pieces but loses critical safety

The defense returns several contributors like DL Zaimir Hawk and Jace J. Gilbert, LB Carson Willich, and DBs David Coffey and Drew Surges. However, the spring ACL injury to Toledo transfer safety Braden Awls is a significant blow, forcing the staff to develop replacements during the summer. The unit's depth and chemistry will be tested early.

Strong special teams provide a reliable edge

Kicker Kyle Konrardy is one of the nation's best, and the return game features explosive threats in Pettaway (33.0-yard kickoff return average) and Flora (26.1-yard punt return average with a touchdown). In a game where the offense may need time to click, special teams could provide crucial field position and scoring.

Home opener with favorable weather but strong wind

Iowa State hosts Southeast Missouri State at home with a 2.7-point home-field advantage. The forecast calls for partly cloudy skies at 69°F but with 23 mph wind, which could affect passing and kicking. The Cyclones' run-heavy offensive approach may be well-suited to these conditions, while the defense must account for wind on deep throws.

Baylor: Key Factors

New-look offense with DJ Lagway at quarterback

Baylor enters the season with a completely revamped offense, headlined by former 5-star QB DJ Lagway. He will be throwing to a receiving corps that lost its top four targets from last year, with Louis Brown IV, Jadon Porter, and Dre'lon Miller expected to step up. The offensive line also features four new starters, so cohesion and protection will be critical against Auburn's defense.

Aggressive defensive scheme under new coordinator

First-year DC Joe Klanderman has installed an attacking, havoc-creating defense, a stark contrast to last year's passive approach. The Bears added several transfer pass rushers (Hosea Wheeler, Jamaal Whyce Jr., Ryan Davis, Garrick Ponder) to generate pressure. However, consistency remains a concern, as last year's defense was prone to giving up big runs.

Neutral-site game with no home-field advantage

This game is played in a dome with zero home-field advantage for either team. Travel is roughly equal (756 miles for Baylor), so the environment should not be a significant factor. The indoor setting favors passing attacks, which could benefit Lagway and Baylor's new-look offense.

Special teams uncertainty with new kicker

Baylor returns elite punter Palmer Williams, but kicker Rhett Armstrong has never attempted a field goal in a college game. In a potentially close contest, field goal reliability could be a deciding factor. The return game is also unsettled, adding another variable.

High-pressure season for head coach Dave Aranda

Aranda is coaching for his job in 2026 after a 36-37 record through six seasons. The team has undergone significant roster turnover, and the pressure to win immediately is immense. This opener against Auburn will set the tone for the entire season and could impact team morale and execution.

What do the matchup numbers say?

Iowa State travels 746 miles to this game, a moderate road trip.

How do Iowa State and Baylor compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favour Baylor (6.4) over Iowa State (1.5) by 4.9 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. Baylor brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.4). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input — cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Sources

Weather

Blue Chip Analytics rates Baylor as the stronger team by 4.9 points on a neutral field; apply HFA and travel context before finalising a line read.