Biggest Travel Disadvantages This Week
Teams ranked by how much further they traveled than their opponent. At a neutral site both teams travel, so the gap between them is the burden - not the raw trip. Body-clock offset and rest-day differential compound it.
3,325 miles · -4h body-clock shift · +6d rest edge
Hawai'i travels 3,325 miles to face
Wyoming, arriving with a -4h body-clock shift.
2,554 miles · +3h body-clock shift · +1d rest edge
2,297 miles · -3h body-clock shift · opponent +1d rest
UCLA travels 2,297 miles to face
Maryland, arriving with a -3h body-clock shift.
2,195 miles · +3h body-clock shift · equal rest
Clemson travels 2,195 miles to face
California, arriving with a +3h body-clock shift.
2,127 miles · +3h body-clock shift · equal rest
Highest Weather-Risk Games This Week
Games ranked by combined wind, temperature, and precipitation impact. Thresholds: sustained wind ≥ 15 mph, gusts ≥ 25 mph, temp ≤ 32°F or ≥ 95°F, precipitation chance ≥ 60%.
54°F, 17 mph wind, 80% precip, Light rain
Virginia Tech @
Boston College: 54°F, 17 mph wind, 80% precip, Light rain: conditions historically favor the home team when passing difficulty is elevated.
63°F, 13 mph wind, 68% precip, Light rain shower
Liberty @
Coastal Carolina: 63°F, 13 mph wind, 68% precip, Light rain shower: conditions historically favor the home team when passing difficulty is elevated.
69°F, 13 mph wind, 10% precip, Overcast
Howard @
Rutgers: 69°F, 13 mph wind, 10% precip, Overcast: conditions historically favor the home team when passing difficulty is elevated.
Strongest Home-Field Advantages This Week
Home teams ranked by stadium HFA rating. Higher values reflect stronger historical home performance at that venue. Venues above 4,000 ft are flagged for altitude disadvantage.
HFA 3.8 pts · Gerald J. Ford Stadium · 32,000 capacity
SMU carries a 3.8-point HFA edge at Gerald J. Ford Stadium (32,000 capacity) against
Missouri State.
HFA 3.8 pts · Alamodome · 64,000 capacity
HFA 3.6 pts · Ben Hill Griffin Stadium · 88,548 capacity
Florida carries a 3.6-point HFA edge at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium (88,548 capacity) against
Ole Miss.
Vegas versus Prediction Markets
The bookmaker's spread against the spread implied by the Kalshi prediction market - two markets, no model. When they disagree, it is worth asking which one moves.
Book: Pittsburgh -54.5 · Market: Pittsburgh -29.9 · Gap: 24.6 pts
The bookmaker line is
Pittsburgh -54.5; the prediction market implies
Pittsburgh -29.9, a notable divergence from the book. Two markets, no model - a wide gap is one side waiting to move.
Book: Florida State -46.5 · Market: Florida State -29.9 · Gap: 16.6 pts
The bookmaker line is
Florida State -46.5; the prediction market implies
Florida State -29.9, a notable divergence from the book. Two markets, no model - a wide gap is one side waiting to move.
Book: Rutgers -42.5 · Market: Rutgers -27.2 · Gap: 15.3 pts
The bookmaker line is
Rutgers -42.5; the prediction market implies
Rutgers -27.2, a notable divergence from the book. Two markets, no model - a wide gap is one side waiting to move.
Week 4 Picks: Where the Model Disagrees with the Spread
The side the Blue Chip model favors against the bookmaker's spread, strongest disagreement first; a game is listed only where the model line and the book line differ by at least 1 point. These are model-versus-spread leans, not a service: no record is kept or published, and the line you can get may differ.
Pick: -52.6MercyH · Strong value · Model: Mercyhurst -12.2 · Book: Western Kentucky -40.5
The model makes it
Mercyhurst -12.2 against a book line of Western Kentucky -40.5; it sees strong value on Mercyhurst, 52.6 points off the spread.
Pick: -40.0StoneH · Strong value · Model: Stonehill -7.5 · Book: Ohio -32.5
The model makes it
Stonehill -7.5 against a book line of Ohio -32.5; it sees strong value on Stonehill, 40.0 points off the spread.
Pick: -22.2NCCU · Strong value · Model: East Carolina -15.3 · Book: East Carolina -37.5 · Prediction market: East Carolina -27.2
The model makes it
East Carolina -15.3 against a book line of East Carolina -37.5; it sees strong value on North Carolina Central, 22.2 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies East Carolina -27.2, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: -18.8HOW · Strong value · Model: Rutgers -23.7 · Book: Rutgers -42.5 · Prediction market: Rutgers -27.2
The model makes it
Rutgers -23.7 against a book line of Rutgers -42.5; it sees strong value on Howard, 18.8 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Rutgers -27.2, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: -16.8LIU · Strong value · Model: Florida International -20.7 · Book: Florida International -37.5 · Prediction market: Florida International -27.2
The model makes it
Florida International -20.7 against a book line of Florida International -37.5; it sees strong value on Long Island University, 16.8 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Florida International -27.2, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: -13.4GWEB · Strong value · Model: Marshall -12.1 · Book: Marshall -25.5 · Prediction market: Marshall -17.3
The model makes it
Marshall -12.1 against a book line of Marshall -25.5; it sees strong value on Gardner-Webb, 13.4 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Marshall -17.3, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: -13.3UIW · Strong value · Model: Texas State -17.2 · Book: Texas State -30.5 · Prediction market: Texas State -19.2
The model makes it
Texas State -17.2 against a book line of Texas State -30.5; it sees strong value on Incarnate Word, 13.3 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Texas State -19.2, a modest gap from the model.
Pick: -12.8BUCK · Strong value · Model: Pittsburgh -41.8 · Book: Pittsburgh -54.5 · Prediction market: Pittsburgh -29.9
The model makes it
Pittsburgh -41.8 against a book line of Pittsburgh -54.5; it sees strong value on Bucknell, 12.8 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Pittsburgh -29.9, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: -11.6LIN · Strong value · Model: Eastern Michigan -12.9 · Book: Eastern Michigan -24.5 · Prediction market: Eastern Michigan -18.5
The model makes it
Eastern Michigan -12.9 against a book line of Eastern Michigan -24.5; it sees strong value on Lindenwood, 11.6 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Eastern Michigan -18.5, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: -10.1W&M · Strong value · Model: Duke -33.4 · Book: Duke -43.5 · Prediction market: Duke -29.9
The model makes it
Duke -33.4 against a book line of Duke -43.5; it sees strong value on William & Mary, 10.1 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Duke -29.9, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: -9.4RMU · Strong value · Model: Buffalo -19.1 · Book: Buffalo -28.5 · Prediction market: Buffalo -19.9
The model makes it
Buffalo -19.1 against a book line of Buffalo -28.5; it sees strong value on Robert Morris, 9.4 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Buffalo -19.9, in line with the model.
Pick: -7.8HCU · Strong value · Model: North Texas -30.7 · Book: North Texas -38.5 · Prediction market: North Texas -29.9
The model makes it
North Texas -30.7 against a book line of North Texas -38.5; it sees strong value on Houston Christian, 7.8 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies North Texas -29.9, in line with the model.
Pick: -5.9VAN · Strong value · Model: Auburn -4.1 · Book: Auburn -10.0 · Prediction market: Auburn -7.7
The model makes it
Auburn -4.1 against a book line of Auburn -10.0; it sees strong value on Vanderbilt, 5.9 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Auburn -7.7, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: -5.9CARK · Strong value · Model: Florida State -40.6 · Book: Florida State -46.5 · Prediction market: Florida State -29.9
The model makes it
Florida State -40.6 against a book line of Florida State -46.5; it sees strong value on Central Arkansas, 5.9 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Florida State -29.9, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: -5.3USF · Strong value · Model: South Florida -23.9 · Book: South Florida -18.5 · Prediction market: South Florida -13.9
The model makes it
South Florida -23.9 against a book line of South Florida -18.5; it sees strong value on South Florida, 5.3 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies South Florida -13.9, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: +5.3PSU · Strong value · Model: Penn State -15.3 · Book: Penn State -10.0 · Prediction market: Penn State -8.0
The model makes it
Penn State -15.3 against a book line of Penn State -10.0; it sees strong value on Penn State, 5.3 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Penn State -8.0, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: -4.3CMU · Strong value · Model: Miami -37.2 · Book: Miami -41.5 · Prediction market: Miami -29.9
The model makes it
Miami -37.2 against a book line of Miami -41.5; it sees strong value on Central Michigan, 4.3 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Miami -29.9, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: +4.2SAC · Strong value · Model: Massachusetts -0.3 · Book: Massachusetts -4.5 · Prediction market: Massachusetts -4.5
The model makes it
Massachusetts -0.3 against a book line of Massachusetts -4.5; it sees strong value on Sacramento State, 4.2 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Massachusetts -4.5, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: -4.0ILL · Strong value · Model: Ohio State -22.5 · Book: Ohio State -26.5 · Prediction market: Ohio State -20.7
The model makes it
Ohio State -22.5 against a book line of Ohio State -26.5; it sees strong value on Illinois, 4.0 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Ohio State -20.7, a modest gap from the model.
Pick: +4.0GASO · Strong value · Model: Houston -13.6 · Book: Houston -17.5 · Prediction market: Houston -13.3
The model makes it
Houston -13.6 against a book line of Houston -17.5; it sees strong value on Georgia Southern, 4.0 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Houston -13.3, in line with the model.
Pick: -3.9NAVY · Value · Model: Navy -10.4 · Book: Navy -6.5 · Prediction market: Navy -5.3
The model makes it
Navy -10.4 against a book line of Navy -6.5; it sees value on Navy, 3.9 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Navy -5.3, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: -3.8TA&M · Value · Model: LSU -4.7 · Book: LSU -8.5 · Prediction market: LSU -7.6
The model makes it
LSU -4.7 against a book line of LSU -8.5; it sees value on Texas A&M, 3.8 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies LSU -7.6, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: -3.8UL · Value · Model: Louisiana -13.8 · Book: Louisiana -10.0 · Prediction market: Louisiana -7.7
The model makes it
Louisiana -13.8 against a book line of Louisiana -10.0; it sees value on Louisiana, 3.8 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Louisiana -7.7, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: +3.6WVU · Value · Model: West Virginia -5.1 · Book: West Virginia -1.5 · Prediction market: West Virginia -0.7
The model makes it
West Virginia -5.1 against a book line of West Virginia -1.5; it sees value on West Virginia, 3.6 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies West Virginia -0.7, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: +3.1JXST · Value · Model: Jacksonville State -10.6 · Book: Jacksonville State -7.5 · Prediction market: Jacksonville State -6.0
The model makes it
Jacksonville State -10.6 against a book line of Jacksonville State -7.5; it sees value on Jacksonville State, 3.1 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Jacksonville State -6.0, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: -3.1MIZ · Value · Model: Mississippi State -2.4 · Book: Mississippi State -5.5 · Prediction market: Mississippi State -3.0
The model makes it
Mississippi State -2.4 against a book line of Mississippi State -5.5; it sees value on Missouri, 3.1 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Mississippi State -3.0, in line with the model.
Pick: -3.0IOWA · Value · Model: Michigan -2.5 · Book: Michigan -5.5 · Prediction market: Michigan -4.5
The model makes it
Michigan -2.5 against a book line of Michigan -5.5; it sees value on Iowa, 3.0 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Michigan -4.5, a modest gap from the model.
Pick: -3.0MISS · Value · Model: Florida -0.5 · Book: Florida -3.5 · Prediction market: Florida -3.3
The model makes it
Florida -0.5 against a book line of Florida -3.5; it sees value on Ole Miss, 3.0 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Florida -3.3, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: +2.9UCF · Value · Model: TCU -0.1 · Book: TCU -3.0 · Prediction market: TCU -3.0
The model makes it
TCU -0.1 against a book line of TCU -3.0; it sees value on UCF, 2.9 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies TCU -3.0, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: -2.8JMU · Value · Model: James Madison -8.8 · Book: James Madison -6.0 · Prediction market: James Madison -5.3
The model makes it
James Madison -8.8 against a book line of James Madison -6.0; it sees value on James Madison, 2.8 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies James Madison -5.3, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: -2.7GT · Value · Model: Georgia Tech -6.2 · Book: Georgia Tech -3.5 · Prediction market: Georgia Tech -2.5
The model makes it
Georgia Tech -6.2 against a book line of Georgia Tech -3.5; it sees value on Georgia Tech, 2.7 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Georgia Tech -2.5, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: +2.5AKR · Value · Model: UNLV -11.0 · Book: UNLV -13.5 · Prediction market: UNLV -10.1
The model makes it
UNLV -11.0 against a book line of UNLV -13.5; it sees value on Akron, 2.5 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies UNLV -10.1, in line with the model.
Pick: +2.4WSU · Slight lean · Model: Arizona -8.1 · Book: Arizona -10.5 · Prediction market: Arizona -8.7
The model makes it
Arizona -8.1 against a book line of Arizona -10.5; it sees a slight lean toward Washington State, 2.4 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Arizona -8.7, in line with the model.
Pick: +2.4FRES · Slight lean · Model: Fresno State -15.8 · Book: Fresno State -13.5 · Prediction market: Fresno State -10.1
The model makes it
Fresno State -15.8 against a book line of Fresno State -13.5; it sees a slight lean toward Fresno State, 2.4 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Fresno State -10.1, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: +2.3USC · Slight lean · Model: Oregon -1.2 · Book: Oregon -3.5 · Prediction market: Oregon -3.4
The model makes it
Oregon -1.2 against a book line of Oregon -3.5; it sees a slight lean toward USC, 2.3 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Oregon -3.4, a modest gap from the model.
Pick: +2.3ALA · Slight lean · Model: Alabama -14.8 · Book: Alabama -12.5 · Prediction market: Alabama -9.6
The model makes it
Alabama -14.8 against a book line of Alabama -12.5; it sees a slight lean toward Alabama, 2.3 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Alabama -9.6, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: +2.3BC · Slight lean · Model: Virginia Tech -12.2 · Book: Virginia Tech -14.5 · Prediction market: Virginia Tech -11.0
The model makes it
Virginia Tech -12.2 against a book line of Virginia Tech -14.5; it sees a slight lean toward Boston College, 2.3 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Virginia Tech -11.0, a modest gap from the model.
Pick: -2.1NIU · Slight lean · Model: Georgia State -8.4 · Book: Georgia State -10.5 · Prediction market: Georgia State -7.7
The model makes it
Georgia State -8.4 against a book line of Georgia State -10.5; it sees a slight lean toward Northern Illinois, 2.1 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Georgia State -7.7, in line with the model.
Pick: -2.1TLSA · Slight lean · Model: Arkansas -4.9 · Book: Arkansas -7.0 · Prediction market: Arkansas -5.9
The model makes it
Arkansas -4.9 against a book line of Arkansas -7.0; it sees a slight lean toward Tulsa, 2.1 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Arkansas -5.9, in line with the model.
Pick: +2.0TOL · Slight lean · Model: Toledo -5.0 · Book: Toledo -3.0 · Prediction market: Toledo -1.7
The model makes it
Toledo -5.0 against a book line of Toledo -3.0; it sees a slight lean toward Toledo, 2.0 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Toledo -1.7, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: -2.0UNM · Slight lean · Model: New Mexico -13.5 · Book: New Mexico -11.5 · Prediction market: New Mexico -9.1
The model makes it
New Mexico -13.5 against a book line of New Mexico -11.5; it sees a slight lean toward New Mexico, 2.0 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies New Mexico -9.1, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: +1.9WMU · Slight lean · Model: Boise State -5.6 · Book: Boise State -7.5 · Prediction market: Boise State -6.6
The model makes it
Boise State -5.6 against a book line of Boise State -7.5; it sees a slight lean toward Western Michigan, 1.9 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Boise State -6.6, a modest gap from the model.
Pick: -1.8CONN · Slight lean · Model: Miami (OH) -1.2 · Book: Miami (OH) -3.0 · Prediction market: Miami (OH) -1.7
The model makes it
Miami (OH) -1.2 against a book line of Miami (OH) -3.0; it sees a slight lean toward UConn, 1.8 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Miami (OH) -1.7, in line with the model.
Pick: +1.7TTU · Slight lean · Model: Texas Tech -36.2 · Book: Texas Tech -34.5 · Prediction market: Texas Tech -27.2
The model makes it
Texas Tech -36.2 against a book line of Texas Tech -34.5; it sees a slight lean toward Texas Tech, 1.7 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Texas Tech -27.2, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: -1.4USA · Slight lean · Model: Kentucky -19.1 · Book: Kentucky -20.5 · Prediction market: Kentucky -15.4
The model makes it
Kentucky -19.1 against a book line of Kentucky -20.5; it sees a slight lean toward South Alabama, 1.4 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Kentucky -15.4, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: -1.2KENN · Slight lean · Model: Arkansas State -5.3 · Book: Arkansas State -6.5 · Prediction market: Arkansas State -5.3
The model makes it
Arkansas State -5.3 against a book line of Arkansas State -6.5; it sees a slight lean toward Kennesaw State, 1.2 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Arkansas State -5.3, in line with the model.
Pick: +1.2LOU · Slight lean · Model: Louisville -12.7 · Book: Louisville -11.5 · Prediction market: Louisville -9.6
The model makes it
Louisville -12.7 against a book line of Louisville -11.5; it sees a slight lean toward Louisville, 1.2 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Louisville -9.6, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: +1.1CIN · Slight lean · Model: Kansas State -4.8 · Book: Kansas State -6.0 · Prediction market: Kansas State -4.8
The model makes it
Kansas State -4.8 against a book line of Kansas State -6.0; it sees a slight lean toward Cincinnati, 1.1 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Kansas State -4.8, in line with the model.
Pick: +1.1WYO · Slight lean · Model: Hawai'i -1.4 · Book: Hawai'i -2.5 · Prediction market: Hawai'i -0.9
The model makes it
Hawai'i -1.4 against a book line of Hawai'i -2.5; it sees a slight lean toward Wyoming, 1.1 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Hawai'i -0.9, in line with the model.
Pick: +1.1IU · Slight lean · Model: Indiana -21.6 · Book: Indiana -20.5 · Prediction market: Indiana -16.3
The model makes it
Indiana -21.6 against a book line of Indiana -20.5; it sees a slight lean toward Indiana, 1.1 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Indiana -16.3, a notable divergence from the model.
Notable ATS Records This Week
Teams in this week's games with a cover rate of ≥60% (hot) or ≤40% (cold) ATS this season, minimum 4 games with a decided ATS result.
Hot ATS ·
4-0 ATS (100%) ·
away @ Indiana
Northwestern is hot ats this season, covering 4-0 (100%) ATS in 4 games. They play away @
Indiana this week.
Duke is hot ats this season, covering 4-0 (100%) ATS in 4 games. They play home vs.
William & Mary this week.
Utah is hot ats this season, covering 4-0 (100%) ATS in 4 games. They play away @
Iowa State this week.
How We Ranked Week 4's Games
Each ranked section draws from the same enriched data that powers our per-game pages.
Travel distances are calculated as straight-line (great-circle) distances from each team's home
market to the game stadium. Body-clock offset is the signed time-zone difference the away team
crosses, or both teams in case of neutral site games. Rest-day differential is the difference in
days since each team last played. Weather scoring compounds wind, temperature, and precipitation
against fixed thresholds, dome stadiums are excluded as weather is irrelevant indoors, see our
Weather tool for the full methodology.
HFA ratings come from our
Home Field Advantage tool, which estimates
the per-venue point value based on historical margin-of-victory data. Stadiums above 4,000 ft
are flagged; altitude creates a documented visiting-team disadvantage. Power ratings are from the
Blue Chip power-rating model. A pick is the
side the model favors where its line and the market line differ by at least
1 point, graded on the same ladder the per-game pages use.
The Vegas versus Prediction Markets section compares the bookmaker's spread with the spread
implied by the Kalshi prediction market - converted from its win probability through a fixed
logistic scale - with no model involved. The Picks section sets the Blue Chip model line
against the bookmaker line, with the Kalshi-implied line beneath each pick as a second read.
ATS records are season-to-date.
Frequently Asked Questions
How many games are in college football Week 4 2026?
Week 4 of the 2026 FBS season features 71 games tracked by Blue Chip Analytics. The full schedule, lines, and totals are listed in the game table on this page.
How does Blue Chip Analytics rank travel disadvantages?
Teams are ranked by how much further they traveled than their opponent, measured as straight-line distance from each home market to the game stadium. At a home game the host travels nothing, so this is simply the visitor's trip; at a neutral site both teams travel and the gap between them is the burden. Body-clock offset (time-zone hours crossed) is listed alongside distance as a compound fatigue indicator.
What weather conditions qualify as high-risk for this week?
Games are flagged when the kickoff-hour forecast meets at least one of: sustained wind ≥ 15 mph, gusts ≥ 25 mph, temperature ≤ 32°F or ≥ 95°F, or a precipitation chance ≥ 60%. Scores compound across all factors: a cold and windy game ranks higher than a mildly breezy one. Weeks with no game past these thresholds show no weather section at all.
What is a Home Field Advantage (HFA) rating?
Blue Chip's HFA rating estimates the point value of playing at home at a specific stadium, based on historical margin-of-victory data. A rating of 3.0 means the home team historically performs about 3 points better at that venue than their power ratings alone would predict.
What does the Vegas versus Prediction Markets section show?
It ranks games by how far the bookmaker's spread sits from the spread implied by the Kalshi prediction market. Kalshi's win probability is converted to a spread through a fixed logistic scale, and no model is involved - it is one market against another. A wide gap is a directional flag, not a betting recommendation.
What are the Week 4 2026 picks?
Each pick is the side the Blue Chip model favors against the bookmaker's spread, listed only where the model line and the book line differ by at least 1 point and ranked by the size of that gap, graded on the same ladder the per-game pages use. The Kalshi-implied line sits beneath each as a second market read. These are model-versus-spread leans, not a service: no record is kept or published, and the line you can get may differ.
What qualifies as a notable ATS record?
Teams are flagged when at least 4 of their games this season have produced a decided ATS result and their cover rate is ≥60% (hot) or ≤40% (cold). Records are season-to-date and, especially early on, rest on small samples - a hot or cold streak here is context to note, not a demonstrated edge.
Week 4 of the 2026 season features 71 FBS games; the ranked sections above surface the travel, weather, HFA, market-vs-market and ATS-record angles, and the picks where the model disagrees with the spread.
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