Week 12 •
M. M. Roberts Stadium

South Alabama @ Southern Miss , Week 12, Nov 21, 2026

4-2 Sun Belt Power rating: -7.2
1-4 Sun Belt Power rating: -18.6

Is there value in the South Alabama vs Southern Miss line?

Market line
None posted
PM Implied
Not yet available
Blue Chip model
USA -8.7
Edge
No line posted
See details
◂ favors USAfavors USM ▸
‹ 11.4 USA
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1 USA1 USM2 USA2 USMModel: USA -8.7

South Alabama (power rating: -7.2) carries a 11.4-point advantage over Southern Miss (-18.6) on a neutral field per Blue Chip Analytics. Southern Miss's home field (Blue Chip HFA: 2.5) narrows that gap at M. M. Roberts Stadium. Beyond home field, the model reads only a slight effect from the conditions. The weather component is provisional until the game-time reading is confirmed. Adjust the factors in the tool above to test your own numbers.

Does weather affect South Alabama vs Southern Miss at M. M. Roberts Stadium?

The latest reading for M. M. Roberts Stadium shows Overcast, 69°F with winds of 9 mph. Gusts reaching 21 mph add variance to the kicking and passing game. Games with gusts at or above 30 mph have seen the total move down by about 1.4 points. It was taken before the ~10-day forecast window opened, so it describes the furthest hour the forecast reached rather than kickoff itself, and it is replaced once the game comes inside the window. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

How do South Alabama and Southern Miss compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor South Alabama (-7.2) over Southern Miss (-18.6) by 11.4 points on a neutral field. Despite playing at home, Southern Miss faces a power rating deficit. Check whether the market spread accounts for this gap. Southern Miss brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.5). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Sources

Weather

Blue Chip makes this South Alabama -8.7. No market line is posted yet for comparison.

Conditions

as of October 18, 2026 Preliminary

Overcast

69°F

Rain19%
Precip0.00"
Humidity71%
Wind9 mph E
Gusts21 mph
Snow chance0%
Wind map for South Alabama at Southern Miss: aerial view of M. M. Roberts Stadium, wind from the E at 8.7 mph, gusting to 21 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 12
Kickoff (local)
11:00 PM CST
Venue
M. M. Roberts Stadium
Capacity
36,000
Elevation
233 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

Measure South AlabamaAway Southern MissHome
This week80 miles0 miles
Last weekHome game424 miles
Season total3,908 miles1,887 miles
Body clock23:0023:00
Rest7 days7 days

South Alabama travels 80 miles to this game, a short road trip. The trip crosses none of the distance or time-zone thresholds that have measured a price, so travel is not a factor here.