Week 13 • November 28, 2026, 05:00 AM UTC
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ACC
Power Rank: 8.9
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ACC
Power Rank: 3.7

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Duke (power rating: 8.9) carries a 5.2-point edge over Wake Forest (3.7) on a neutral field per Blue Chip Analytics. Wake Forest's home field (Blue Chip HFA: 2.3) narrows that gap at Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium. See Line Value below.

General Information

Week: Week 13
Kick Off (at stadium): 12:00 AM EST
Stadium: Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium
Capacity: 31,500
Elevation: 958 ft
HFA Rating: 2.3
Playing Surface: Artificial Turf

Betting Information

Spread None
Total (O/U) -
Odds Implied Score -
Power Rank Implied Line Duke -5.2

Line Value Calculator

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Duke
Wake Forest
Home field — Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium
Weather: Clear
Travel impact

Positive adjustment = favours home team

Does weather affect Duke vs Wake Forest at Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium?

Game-time forecast at Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium shows Clear — 71.1°F, Feels Like 62.1°F with winds of 3.4 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. The weather adjustment has been pre-filled in the Line Value Calculator above — adjust manually if conditions change before kick-off.

Weather Conditions

Forecast for: July 05, 2026
Clear

Clear

71.1°F

Feels Like: 62.1°F
Wind: 3.4 mph WNW
Gusts: 7.0 mph
Precipitation: 0.01"
Humidity: 78%
Rain Chance: 10%
Snow Chance: 0%

Travel & Rest

Duke (Away)

This Week: 74.1 miles
Last Week: Home Game
Season Total: 3638.0 miles
Body Clock Time: 00:00
Rest Days: 7

Wake Forest (Home)

This Week: 0.0 miles
Last Week: 571.2 miles
Season Total: 8907.0 miles
Body Clock Time: 00:00
Rest Days: 7

What are the key factors for Duke vs Wake Forest?

Duke: Key Factors

Quarterback transition and offensive continuity

Duke's offense, which led the ACC in scoring last season, must adjust to new starting QB Walker Eget (San José State transfer) after losing Darian Mensah to Miami. Eget's 59% completion rate and 17 TDs vs 9 INTs last year are solid but below Mensah's production. The offensive line returns two starters and adds Coastal Carolina All-Sun Belt transfer Nick Del Grande at left tackle, but the unit's cohesion will be tested early against Tulane.

Defensive overhaul and inexperience

Duke's defense ranked 14th in scoring (29.4 ppg) and 15th in total defense (424.2 ypg) in the ACC last season. With many new starters—including transfers at cornerback (Dylan Flowers), safety (Evan Smith, Patrick Smith-Young) and linebacker Nick Morris Jr. returning from ACL injury—the unit faces a steep learning curve. Tulane's offense could exploit early communication gaps.

Running back Nate Sheppard as offensive centerpiece

Sophomore RB Nate Sheppard (1,132 yards, 11 TDs last season) returns as Duke's most proven playmaker. With a new QB and revamped O-line, Sheppard's ability to carry the rushing load and provide a safety valve in the passing game will be critical to controlling tempo and keeping Tulane's defense honest.

Home-field advantage and favorable weather

Duke opens at home with a venue HFA of 2.9 and clear, cool conditions (58°F, light wind). This neutralizes any weather-related disruption and gives the Blue Devils a comfort edge, especially for a team integrating many new starters. The home crowd should help the defense communicate more effectively.

Special teams stability and field position

Duke returns one of the ACC's top punters (Kade Reynoldson, 44.6 avg) and has explosive return options in Sheppard and Jayden Moore. New kicker Cosme Salas has a strong leg but unproven accuracy. In a potentially tight opener, field position and kicking game reliability could swing momentum.

Wake Forest: Key Factors

Quarterback Reunion and Offensive Potential

Gio Lopez reunites with offensive coordinator Rob Ezell, under whom he produced over 3,000 yards and 25 touchdowns in 2024. If Lopez recaptures that form, Wake Forest's offense could be explosive, but his erratic play at North Carolina last season remains a concern. The supporting cast features a rebuilt receiving corps with speed and potential, though the offensive line is still being finalized.

Defensive Strength as a Foundation

Wake Forest's defense returns both starting ends (Gabe Kirschke and Langston Hardy) who combined for 12 sacks and 26 tackles for loss, plus experienced tackles and linebackers. The secondary has a budding star at nickel (Davaughn Patterson) and safety Rushaun Tongue back from injury. This unit was the strength of last year's team and should be able to control the game against an Akron offense that is unproven.

Home Field Advantage and Favorable Conditions

Wake Forest opens at home with a venue HFA of 2.3, and the forecast calls for clear skies at 57°F with light wind. These conditions favor the Deacons' passing attack and should allow their defense to operate without weather-related disruptions. Akron will have to travel and adjust to the environment.

Special Teams Stability and Return Game

Kicker Connor Calvert was excellent last season (18-of-22 field goals, including a walk-off winner), providing reliable scoring. Punting was a weakness, but Australian Ethan Hyams takes over. Wake Forest was dynamic in the return game and has multiple options, which could provide short fields against an Akron team that may struggle to contain explosive plays.

Akron's Unknowns and Wake Forest's Depth

Akron enters with a 0-0 record and no power rating, making them a largely unknown opponent. Wake Forest has depth and experience across the roster, particularly on defense, and should be able to grind out a win if the offense is inconsistent. The Deacons' ability to rely on their defense and special teams gives them a clear edge in a season opener where both teams are still finding their identity.

What do the matchup numbers say?

Duke travels 74 miles to this game, a short road trip.

How do Duke and Wake Forest compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favour Duke (8.9) over Wake Forest (3.7) by 5.2 points on a neutral field. Despite playing at home, Wake Forest faces a power rating deficit. Check whether the market spread accounts for this gap. Wake Forest brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.3). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input — cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Sources

Weather

Blue Chip Analytics rates Duke as the stronger team by 5.2 points on a neutral field; apply HFA and travel context before finalising a line read.