Biggest Travel Disadvantages This Week
Teams ranked by how much further they traveled than their opponent. At a neutral site both teams travel, so the gap between them is the burden - not the raw trip. Body-clock offset and rest-day differential compound it.
3,215 miles · +4h body-clock shift · equal rest
2,426 miles · -3h body-clock shift · opponent +1d rest
1,558 miles · +2h body-clock shift · opponent +1d rest
Louisiana travels 1,558 miles to face
USC, arriving with a +2h body-clock shift.
1,513 miles · +1h body-clock shift · equal rest
1,511 miles · +2h body-clock shift · equal rest
Highest Weather-Risk Games This Week
Games ranked by combined wind, temperature, and precipitation impact. Thresholds: sustained wind ≥ 15 mph, gusts ≥ 25 mph, temp ≤ 32°F or ≥ 95°F, precipitation chance ≥ 60%.
76°F, 23 mph wind, 9% precip, Overcast
Northern Colorado @
Wyoming: 76°F, 23 mph wind, 9% precip, Overcast: conditions historically favor the home team when passing difficulty is elevated.
101°F, 7 mph wind, 2% precip, Partly Cloudy
Grambling @
TCU: 101°F, 7 mph wind, 2% precip, Partly Cloudy: conditions historically favor the home team when passing difficulty is elevated.
101°F, 12 mph wind, Sunny
UNLV @
North Texas: 101°F, 12 mph wind, Sunny: conditions historically favor the home team when passing difficulty is elevated.
Strongest Home-Field Advantages This Week
Home teams ranked by stadium HFA rating. Higher values reflect stronger historical home performance at that venue. Venues above 4,000 ft are flagged for altitude disadvantage.
HFA 3.8 pts · Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex · 16,909 capacity
Hawai'i carries a 3.8-point HFA edge at Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex (16,909 capacity) against
New Mexico State.
HFA 3.8 pts · Gerald J. Ford Stadium · 32,000 capacity
SMU carries a 3.8-point HFA edge at Gerald J. Ford Stadium (32,000 capacity) against
UC Davis.
HFA 3.7 pts · Reser Stadium · 35,548 capacity
Vegas versus Prediction Markets
The bookmaker's spread against the spread implied by the Kalshi prediction market - two markets, no model. When they disagree, it is worth asking which one moves.
Book: Miami -59.5 · Market: Miami -29.9 · Gap: 29.6 pts
The bookmaker line is
Miami -59.5; the prediction market implies
Miami -29.9, a notable divergence from the book. Two markets, no model - a wide gap is one side waiting to move.
Book: Indiana -57.5 · Market: Indiana -29.9 · Gap: 27.6 pts
The bookmaker line is
Indiana -57.5; the prediction market implies
Indiana -29.9, a notable divergence from the book. Two markets, no model - a wide gap is one side waiting to move.
Book: Houston -51.5 · Market: Houston -29.9 · Gap: 21.6 pts
The bookmaker line is
Houston -51.5; the prediction market implies
Houston -29.9, a notable divergence from the book. Two markets, no model - a wide gap is one side waiting to move.
Week 2 Picks: Where the Model Disagrees with the Spread
The side the Blue Chip model favors against the bookmaker's spread, strongest disagreement first; a game is listed only where the model line and the book line differ by at least 1 point. These are model-versus-spread leans, not a service: no record is kept or published, and the line you can get may differ.
Pick: -44.9SHP · Strong value · Model: Sacred Heart -21.4 · Book: Massachusetts -23.5
The model makes it
Sacred Heart -21.4 against a book line of Massachusetts -23.5; it sees strong value on Sacred Heart, 44.9 points off the spread.
Pick: -40.6W Geor · Strong value · Model: West Georgia -9.1 · Book: Arkansas State -31.5
The model makes it
West Georgia -9.1 against a book line of Arkansas State -31.5; it sees strong value on West Georgia, 40.6 points off the spread.
Pick: -39.5MercyH · Strong value · Model: New Mexico -2.0 · Book: New Mexico -41.5
The model makes it
New Mexico -2.0 against a book line of New Mexico -41.5; it sees strong value on Mercyhurst, 39.5 points off the spread.
Pick: -29.3S Utah · Strong value · Model: Southern Utah -8.8 · Book: Colorado State -20.5
The model makes it
Southern Utah -8.8 against a book line of Colorado State -20.5; it sees strong value on Southern Utah, 29.3 points off the spread.
Pick: -17.2HC · Strong value · Model: Miami (OH) -13.3 · Book: Miami (OH) -30.5 · Prediction market: Miami (OH) -27.1
The model makes it
Miami (OH) -13.3 against a book line of Miami (OH) -30.5; it sees strong value on Holy Cross, 17.2 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Miami (OH) -27.1, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: -14.0TXSO · Strong value · Model: UTEP -11.5 · Book: UTEP -25.5 · Prediction market: UTEP -19.9
The model makes it
UTEP -11.5 against a book line of UTEP -25.5; it sees strong value on Texas Southern, 14.0 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies UTEP -19.9, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: -13.9UTM · Strong value · Model: West Virginia -27.6 · Book: West Virginia -41.5 · Prediction market: West Virginia -29.9
The model makes it
West Virginia -27.6 against a book line of West Virginia -41.5; it sees strong value on UT Martin, 13.9 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies West Virginia -29.9, a modest gap from the model.
Pick: -13.1GRAM · Strong value · Model: TCU -30.4 · Book: TCU -43.5 · Prediction market: TCU -29.9
The model makes it
TCU -30.4 against a book line of TCU -43.5; it sees strong value on Grambling, 13.1 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies TCU -29.9, in line with the model.
Pick: -13.1GWEB · Strong value · Model: Liberty -15.4 · Book: Liberty -28.5 · Prediction market: Liberty -21.6
The model makes it
Liberty -15.4 against a book line of Liberty -28.5; it sees strong value on Gardner-Webb, 13.1 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Liberty -21.6, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: -12.5MONM · Strong value · Model: Western Michigan -15.0 · Book: Western Michigan -27.5 · Prediction market: Western Michigan -22.6
The model makes it
Western Michigan -15.0 against a book line of Western Michigan -27.5; it sees strong value on Monmouth, 12.5 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Western Michigan -22.6, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: -11.7ODU · Strong value · Model: Virginia Tech -7.8 · Book: Virginia Tech -19.5 · Prediction market: Virginia Tech -14.7
The model makes it
Virginia Tech -7.8 against a book line of Virginia Tech -19.5; it sees strong value on Old Dominion, 11.7 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Virginia Tech -14.7, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: -10.6FOR · Strong value · Model: Coastal Carolina -23.9 · Book: Coastal Carolina -34.5 · Prediction market: Coastal Carolina -27.2
The model makes it
Coastal Carolina -23.9 against a book line of Coastal Carolina -34.5; it sees strong value on Fordham, 10.6 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Coastal Carolina -27.2, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: -10.2TOW · Strong value · Model: South Carolina -33.3 · Book: South Carolina -43.5 · Prediction market: South Carolina -29.9
The model makes it
South Carolina -33.3 against a book line of South Carolina -43.5; it sees strong value on Towson, 10.2 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies South Carolina -29.9, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: -10.1RMU · Strong value · Model: Akron -17.4 · Book: Akron -27.5 · Prediction market: Akron -21.6
The model makes it
Akron -17.4 against a book line of Akron -27.5; it sees strong value on Robert Morris, 10.1 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Akron -21.6, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: -9.8ETSU · Strong value · Model: North Carolina -25.8 · Book: North Carolina -35.5 · Prediction market: North Carolina -27.2
The model makes it
North Carolina -25.8 against a book line of North Carolina -35.5; it sees strong value on East Tennessee State, 9.8 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies North Carolina -27.2, a modest gap from the model.
Pick: -9.0RICH · Strong value · Model: NC State -24.5 · Book: NC State -33.5 · Prediction market: NC State -23.8
The model makes it
NC State -24.5 against a book line of NC State -33.5; it sees strong value on Richmond, 9.0 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies NC State -23.8, in line with the model.
Pick: -8.9WEB · Strong value · Model: Colorado -25.6 · Book: Colorado -34.5 · Prediction market: Colorado -27.2
The model makes it
Colorado -25.6 against a book line of Colorado -34.5; it sees strong value on Weber State, 8.9 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Colorado -27.2, a modest gap from the model.
Pick: -8.4USM · Strong value · Model: Auburn -24.1 · Book: Auburn -32.5 · Prediction market: Auburn -23.8
The model makes it
Auburn -24.1 against a book line of Auburn -32.5; it sees strong value on Southern Miss, 8.4 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Auburn -23.8, in line with the model.
Pick: -8.2CCSU · Strong value · Model: Toledo -27.3 · Book: Toledo -35.5 · Prediction market: Toledo -27.2
The model makes it
Toledo -27.3 against a book line of Toledo -35.5; it sees strong value on Central Connecticut, 8.2 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Toledo -27.2, in line with the model.
Pick: -8.1SOU · Strong value · Model: Houston -43.4 · Book: Houston -51.5 · Prediction market: Houston -29.9
The model makes it
Houston -43.4 against a book line of Houston -51.5; it sees strong value on Southern, 8.1 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Houston -29.9, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: -7.7WCU · Strong value · Model: Cincinnati -28.9 · Book: Cincinnati -36.5 · Prediction market: Cincinnati -27.2
The model makes it
Cincinnati -28.9 against a book line of Cincinnati -36.5; it sees strong value on Western Carolina, 7.7 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Cincinnati -27.2, a modest gap from the model.
Pick: -7.4NAVY · Strong value · Model: Navy -11.9 · Book: Navy -4.5 · Prediction market: Navy -4.2
The model makes it
Navy -11.9 against a book line of Navy -4.5; it sees strong value on Navy, 7.4 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Navy -4.2, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: +7.2WYO · Strong value · Model: Wyoming -29.7 · Book: Wyoming -22.5 · Prediction market: Wyoming -17.3
The model makes it
Wyoming -29.7 against a book line of Wyoming -22.5; it sees strong value on Wyoming, 7.2 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Wyoming -17.3, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: +7.1NEV · Strong value · Model: Nevada -3.6 · Book: Montana State -3.5 · Prediction market: Montana State -4.2
The model makes it
Nevada -3.6 against a book line of Montana State -3.5; it sees strong value on Nevada, 7.1 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Montana State -4.2, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: -6.6WAG · Strong value · Model: James Madison -39.9 · Book: James Madison -46.5 · Prediction market: James Madison -29.9
The model makes it
James Madison -39.9 against a book line of James Madison -46.5; it sees strong value on Wagner, 6.6 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies James Madison -29.9, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: +6.2VAN · Strong value · Model: Vanderbilt -27.2 · Book: Vanderbilt -21.0 · Prediction market: Vanderbilt -15.4
The model makes it
Vanderbilt -27.2 against a book line of Vanderbilt -21.0; it sees strong value on Vanderbilt, 6.2 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Vanderbilt -15.4, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: -6.1UTSA · Strong value · Model: UTSA -3.6 · Book: Texas State -2.5 · Prediction market: Texas State -1.2
The model makes it
UTSA -3.6 against a book line of Texas State -2.5; it sees strong value on UTSA, 6.1 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Texas State -1.2, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: -5.6LT · Strong value · Model: LSU -29.9 · Book: LSU -35.5 · Prediction market: LSU -27.2
The model makes it
LSU -29.9 against a book line of LSU -35.5; it sees strong value on Louisiana Tech, 5.6 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies LSU -27.2, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: +4.9NIU · Strong value · Model: Northern Illinois -0.9 · Book: Illinois State -4.0 · Prediction market: Illinois State -1.7
The model makes it
Northern Illinois -0.9 against a book line of Illinois State -4.0; it sees strong value on Northern Illinois, 4.9 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Illinois State -1.7, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: -4.8BUF · Strong value · Model: Florida International -5.2 · Book: Florida International -10.0 · Prediction market: Florida International -8.0
The model makes it
Florida International -5.2 against a book line of Florida International -10.0; it sees strong value on Buffalo, 4.8 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Florida International -8.0, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: -4.7SDSU · Strong value · Model: UCLA -8.3 · Book: UCLA -13.0 · Prediction market: UCLA -9.6
The model makes it
UCLA -8.3 against a book line of UCLA -13.0; it sees strong value on San Diego State, 4.7 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies UCLA -9.6, a modest gap from the model.
Pick: -4.6UL · Strong value · Model: USC -26.9 · Book: USC -31.5 · Prediction market: USC -23.8
The model makes it
USC -26.9 against a book line of USC -31.5; it sees strong value on Louisiana, 4.6 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies USC -23.8, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: +4.5SMU · Strong value · Model: SMU -35.0 · Book: SMU -30.5 · Prediction market: SMU -23.9
The model makes it
SMU -35.0 against a book line of SMU -30.5; it sees strong value on SMU, 4.5 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies SMU -23.9, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: -4.3STBK · Strong value · Model: Ball State -9.2 · Book: Ball State -13.5 · Prediction market: Ball State -10.1
The model makes it
Ball State -9.2 against a book line of Ball State -13.5; it sees strong value on Stony Brook, 4.3 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Ball State -10.1, a modest gap from the model.
Pick: +4.3ORST · Strong value · Model: Texas Tech -21.2 · Book: Texas Tech -25.5 · Prediction market: Texas Tech -19.9
The model makes it
Texas Tech -21.2 against a book line of Texas Tech -25.5; it sees strong value on Oregon State, 4.3 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Texas Tech -19.9, a modest gap from the model.
Pick: -4.2VILL · Strong value · Model: Louisville -34.3 · Book: Louisville -38.5 · Prediction market: Louisville -27.2
The model makes it
Louisville -34.3 against a book line of Louisville -38.5; it sees strong value on Villanova, 4.2 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Louisville -27.2, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: +4.1UNT · Strong value · Model: North Texas -1.1 · Book: UNLV -3.0 · Prediction market: UNLV -1.7
The model makes it
North Texas -1.1 against a book line of UNLV -3.0; it sees strong value on North Texas, 4.1 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies UNLV -1.7, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: +4.0CONN · Strong value · Model: Maryland -7.5 · Book: Maryland -11.5 · Prediction market: Maryland -9.2
The model makes it
Maryland -7.5 against a book line of Maryland -11.5; it sees strong value on UConn, 4.0 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Maryland -9.2, a modest gap from the model.
Pick: -3.8CAM · Value · Model: Florida -46.7 · Book: Florida -50.5 · Prediction market: Florida -29.9
The model makes it
Florida -46.7 against a book line of Florida -50.5; it sees value on Campbell, 3.8 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Florida -29.9, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: +3.8MINN · Value · Model: Minnesota -2.8 · Book: Mississippi State -1.0 · Prediction market: Mississippi State -0.1
The model makes it
Minnesota -2.8 against a book line of Mississippi State -1.0; it sees value on Minnesota, 3.8 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Mississippi State -0.1, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: +3.7AF · Value · Model: Air Force -2.2 · Book: North Dakota State -1.5 · Prediction market: North Dakota State -0.7
The model makes it
Air Force -2.2 against a book line of North Dakota State -1.5; it sees value on Air Force, 3.7 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies North Dakota State -0.7, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: -3.6WIU · Value · Model: Wisconsin -36.9 · Book: Wisconsin -40.5 · Prediction market: Wisconsin -29.9
The model makes it
Wisconsin -36.9 against a book line of Wisconsin -40.5; it sees value on Western Illinois, 3.6 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Wisconsin -29.9, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: -3.4ORE · Value · Model: Oregon -26.9 · Book: Oregon -23.5 · Prediction market: Oregon -17.3
The model makes it
Oregon -26.9 against a book line of Oregon -23.5; it sees value on Oregon, 3.4 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Oregon -17.3, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: -3.1OSU · Value · Model: Ohio State -1.6 · Book: Texas -1.5 · Prediction market: Texas -1.2
The model makes it
Ohio State -1.6 against a book line of Texas -1.5; it sees value on Ohio State, 3.1 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Texas -1.2, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: -3.1COLG · Value · Model: Central Michigan -16.4 · Book: Central Michigan -19.5 · Prediction market: Central Michigan -14.7
The model makes it
Central Michigan -16.4 against a book line of Central Michigan -19.5; it sees value on Colgate, 3.1 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Central Michigan -14.7, a modest gap from the model.
Pick: -3.0WOF · Value · Model: Kent State -7.5 · Book: Kent State -10.5 · Prediction market: Kent State -8.4
The model makes it
Kent State -7.5 against a book line of Kent State -10.5; it sees value on Wofford, 3.0 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Kent State -8.4, a modest gap from the model.
Pick: +2.8ECU · Value · Model: East Carolina -9.3 · Book: East Carolina -6.5 · Prediction market: East Carolina -5.0
The model makes it
East Carolina -9.3 against a book line of East Carolina -6.5; it sees value on East Carolina, 2.8 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies East Carolina -5.0, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: +2.8PITT · Value · Model: Pittsburgh -9.8 · Book: Pittsburgh -7.0 · Prediction market: Pittsburgh -5.7
The model makes it
Pittsburgh -9.8 against a book line of Pittsburgh -7.0; it sees value on Pittsburgh, 2.8 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Pittsburgh -5.7, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: +2.7TA&M · Value · Model: Texas A&M -17.2 · Book: Texas A&M -14.5 · Prediction market: Texas A&M -11.5
The model makes it
Texas A&M -17.2 against a book line of Texas A&M -14.5; it sees value on Texas A&M, 2.7 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Texas A&M -11.5, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: -2.6FAMU · Value · Model: Miami -56.9 · Book: Miami -59.5 · Prediction market: Miami -29.9
The model makes it
Miami -56.9 against a book line of Miami -59.5; it sees value on Florida A&M, 2.6 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Miami -29.9, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: +2.5BAY · Value · Model: Baylor -40.0 · Book: Baylor -37.5 · Prediction market: Baylor -29.9
The model makes it
Baylor -40.0 against a book line of Baylor -37.5; it sees value on Baylor, 2.5 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Baylor -29.9, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: -2.5ALA · Value · Model: Alabama -12.5 · Book: Alabama -10.0 · Prediction market: Alabama -7.7
The model makes it
Alabama -12.5 against a book line of Alabama -10.0; it sees value on Alabama, 2.5 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Alabama -7.7, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: +2.4TULN · Slight lean · Model: Tulane -11.9 · Book: Tulane -9.5 · Prediction market: Tulane -7.6
The model makes it
Tulane -11.9 against a book line of Tulane -9.5; it sees a slight lean toward Tulane, 2.4 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Tulane -7.6, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: -2.4WSU · Slight lean · Model: Kansas State -15.2 · Book: Kansas State -17.5 · Prediction market: Kansas State -13.3
The model makes it
Kansas State -15.2 against a book line of Kansas State -17.5; it sees a slight lean toward Washington State, 2.4 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Kansas State -13.3, a modest gap from the model.
Pick: -2.3GASO · Slight lean · Model: Clemson -17.2 · Book: Clemson -19.5 · Prediction market: Clemson -14.7
The model makes it
Clemson -17.2 against a book line of Clemson -19.5; it sees a slight lean toward Georgia Southern, 2.3 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Clemson -14.7, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: +2.3UTAH · Slight lean · Model: Utah -14.8 · Book: Utah -12.5 · Prediction market: Utah -10.1
The model makes it
Utah -14.8 against a book line of Utah -12.5; it sees a slight lean toward Utah, 2.3 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Utah -10.1, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: +2.3IU · Slight lean · Model: Indiana -59.8 · Book: Indiana -57.5 · Prediction market: Indiana -29.9
The model makes it
Indiana -59.8 against a book line of Indiana -57.5; it sees a slight lean toward Indiana, 2.3 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Indiana -29.9, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: +2.0UAB · Slight lean · Model: UAB -11.5 · Book: UAB -9.5 · Prediction market: UAB -7.3
The model makes it
UAB -11.5 against a book line of UAB -9.5; it sees a slight lean toward UAB, 2.0 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies UAB -7.3, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: -2.0RICE · Slight lean · Model: Notre Dame -43.5 · Book: Notre Dame -45.5 · Prediction market: Notre Dame -29.9
The model makes it
Notre Dame -43.5 against a book line of Notre Dame -45.5; it sees a slight lean toward Rice, 2.0 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Notre Dame -29.9, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: +1.9SHSU · Slight lean · Model: Tulsa -10.6 · Book: Tulsa -12.5 · Prediction market: Tulsa -10.0
The model makes it
Tulsa -10.6 against a book line of Tulsa -12.5; it sees a slight lean toward Sam Houston, 1.9 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Tulsa -10.0, in line with the model.
Pick: +1.9BYU · Slight lean · Model: BYU -8.8 · Book: BYU -7.0 · Prediction market: BYU -6.0
The model makes it
BYU -8.8 against a book line of BYU -7.0; it sees a slight lean toward BYU, 1.9 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies BYU -6.0, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: +1.8MISS · Slight lean · Model: Ole Miss -46.3 · Book: Ole Miss -44.5 · Prediction market: Ole Miss -29.9
The model makes it
Ole Miss -46.3 against a book line of Ole Miss -44.5; it sees a slight lean toward Ole Miss, 1.8 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Ole Miss -29.9, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: +1.8KENN · Slight lean · Model: Kennesaw State -10.3 · Book: Kennesaw State -8.5 · Prediction market: Kennesaw State -6.6
The model makes it
Kennesaw State -10.3 against a book line of Kennesaw State -8.5; it sees a slight lean toward Kennesaw State, 1.8 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Kennesaw State -6.6, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: -1.7MTSU · Slight lean · Model: Marshall -10.8 · Book: Marshall -12.5 · Prediction market: Marshall -9.2
The model makes it
Marshall -10.8 against a book line of Marshall -12.5; it sees a slight lean toward Middle Tennessee, 1.7 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Marshall -9.2, a modest gap from the model.
Pick: -1.6USF · Slight lean · Model: Army -1.9 · Book: Army -3.5 · Prediction market: Army -2.5
The model makes it
Army -1.9 against a book line of Army -3.5; it sees a slight lean toward South Florida, 1.6 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Army -2.5, in line with the model.
Pick: +1.6HAW · Slight lean · Model: Hawai'i -8.6 · Book: Hawai'i -7.0 · Prediction market: Hawai'i -6.3
The model makes it
Hawai'i -8.6 against a book line of Hawai'i -7.0; it sees a slight lean toward Hawai'i, 1.6 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Hawai'i -6.3, a modest gap from the model.
Pick: -1.6WAKE · Slight lean · Model: Wake Forest -4.6 · Book: Wake Forest -3.0 · Prediction market: Wake Forest -2.1
The model makes it
Wake Forest -4.6 against a book line of Wake Forest -3.0; it sees a slight lean toward Wake Forest, 1.6 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Wake Forest -2.1, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: -1.6MEM · Slight lean · Model: Boise State -6.9 · Book: Boise State -8.5 · Prediction market: Boise State -7.3
The model makes it
Boise State -6.9 against a book line of Boise State -8.5; it sees a slight lean toward Memphis, 1.6 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Boise State -7.3, in line with the model.
Pick: -1.5DUKE · Slight lean · Model: Illinois -4.5 · Book: Illinois -6.0 · Prediction market: Illinois -5.0
The model makes it
Illinois -4.5 against a book line of Illinois -6.0; it sees a slight lean toward Duke, 1.5 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Illinois -5.0, in line with the model.
Pick: +1.4OHIO · Slight lean · Model: Ohio -3.9 · Book: Ohio -2.5 · Prediction market: Ohio -0.9
The model makes it
Ohio -3.9 against a book line of Ohio -2.5; it sees a slight lean toward Ohio, 1.4 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Ohio -0.9, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: -1.4BGSU · Slight lean · Model: Nebraska -29.1 · Book: Nebraska -30.5 · Prediction market: Nebraska -23.8
The model makes it
Nebraska -29.1 against a book line of Nebraska -30.5; it sees a slight lean toward Bowling Green, 1.4 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Nebraska -23.8, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: -1.3RUTG · Slight lean · Model: Boston College -1.7 · Book: Boston College -3.0 · Prediction market: Boston College -1.9
The model makes it
Boston College -1.7 against a book line of Boston College -3.0; it sees a slight lean toward Rutgers, 1.3 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Boston College -1.9, in line with the model.
Pick: -1.3NORF · Slight lean · Model: Virginia -45.2 · Book: Virginia -46.5 · Prediction market: Virginia -29.9
The model makes it
Virginia -45.2 against a book line of Virginia -46.5; it sees a slight lean toward Norfolk State, 1.3 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Virginia -29.9, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: +1.2MSU · Slight lean · Model: Michigan State -18.7 · Book: Michigan State -17.5 · Prediction market: Michigan State -13.3
The model makes it
Michigan State -18.7 against a book line of Michigan State -17.5; it sees a slight lean toward Michigan State, 1.2 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Michigan State -13.3, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: +1.1GT · Slight lean · Model: Tennessee -10.9 · Book: Tennessee -12.0 · Prediction market: Tennessee -9.6
The model makes it
Tennessee -10.9 against a book line of Tennessee -12.0; it sees a slight lean toward Georgia Tech, 1.1 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Tennessee -9.6, a modest gap from the model.
Pick: -1.0PSU · Slight lean · Model: Penn State -25.5 · Book: Penn State -24.5 · Prediction market: Penn State -18.6
The model makes it
Penn State -25.5 against a book line of Penn State -24.5; it sees a slight lean toward Penn State, 1.0 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Penn State -18.6, a notable divergence from the model.
How We Ranked Week 2's Games
Each ranked section draws from the same enriched data that powers our per-game pages.
Travel distances are calculated as straight-line (great-circle) distances from each team's home
market to the game stadium. Body-clock offset is the signed time-zone difference the away team
crosses, or both teams in case of neutral site games. Rest-day differential is the difference in
days since each team last played. Weather scoring compounds wind, temperature, and precipitation
against fixed thresholds, dome stadiums are excluded as weather is irrelevant indoors, see our
Weather tool for the full methodology.
HFA ratings come from our
Home Field Advantage tool, which estimates
the per-venue point value based on historical margin-of-victory data. Stadiums above 4,000 ft
are flagged; altitude creates a documented visiting-team disadvantage. Power ratings are from the
Blue Chip power-rating model. A pick is the
side the model favors where its line and the market line differ by at least
1 point, graded on the same ladder the per-game pages use.
The Vegas versus Prediction Markets section compares the bookmaker's spread with the spread
implied by the Kalshi prediction market - converted from its win probability through a fixed
logistic scale - with no model involved. The Picks section sets the Blue Chip model line
against the bookmaker line, with the Kalshi-implied line beneath each pick as a second read.
ATS records are season-to-date.
Frequently Asked Questions
How many games are in college football Week 2 2026?
Week 2 of the 2026 FBS season features 86 games tracked by Blue Chip Analytics. The full schedule, lines, and totals are listed in the game table on this page.
How does Blue Chip Analytics rank travel disadvantages?
Teams are ranked by how much further they traveled than their opponent, measured as straight-line distance from each home market to the game stadium. At a home game the host travels nothing, so this is simply the visitor's trip; at a neutral site both teams travel and the gap between them is the burden. Body-clock offset (time-zone hours crossed) is listed alongside distance as a compound fatigue indicator.
What weather conditions qualify as high-risk for this week?
Games are flagged when the kickoff-hour forecast meets at least one of: sustained wind ≥ 15 mph, gusts ≥ 25 mph, temperature ≤ 32°F or ≥ 95°F, or a precipitation chance ≥ 60%. Scores compound across all factors: a cold and windy game ranks higher than a mildly breezy one. Weeks with no game past these thresholds show no weather section at all.
What is a Home Field Advantage (HFA) rating?
Blue Chip's HFA rating estimates the point value of playing at home at a specific stadium, based on historical margin-of-victory data. A rating of 3.0 means the home team historically performs about 3 points better at that venue than their power ratings alone would predict.
What does the Vegas versus Prediction Markets section show?
It ranks games by how far the bookmaker's spread sits from the spread implied by the Kalshi prediction market. Kalshi's win probability is converted to a spread through a fixed logistic scale, and no model is involved - it is one market against another. A wide gap is a directional flag, not a betting recommendation.
What are the Week 2 2026 picks?
Each pick is the side the Blue Chip model favors against the bookmaker's spread, listed only where the model line and the book line differ by at least 1 point and ranked by the size of that gap, graded on the same ladder the per-game pages use. The Kalshi-implied line sits beneath each as a second market read. These are model-versus-spread leans, not a service: no record is kept or published, and the line you can get may differ.
What qualifies as a notable ATS record?
Teams are flagged when at least 4 of their games this season have produced a decided ATS result and their cover rate is ≥60% (hot) or ≤40% (cold). Records are season-to-date and, especially early on, rest on small samples - a hot or cold streak here is context to note, not a demonstrated edge.
Week 2 of the 2026 season features 86 FBS games; the ranked sections above surface the travel, weather, HFA, market-vs-market and ATS-record angles, and the picks where the model disagrees with the spread.
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