Week 13 • November 28, 2026, 05:00 AM UTC
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Big Ten
Power Rank: 16.3
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Big Ten
Power Rank: 1.4

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USC (power rating: 16.3) carries a 14.9-point edge over UCLA (1.4) on a neutral field per Blue Chip Analytics. UCLA's home field (Blue Chip HFA: 2.2) narrows that gap at Rose Bowl. See Line Value below.

General Information

Week: Week 13
Kick Off (at stadium): 09:00 PM PST
Stadium: Rose Bowl
Capacity: 89,702
Elevation: 810 ft
HFA Rating: 2.2
Playing Surface: Grass

Betting Information

Spread None
Total (O/U) -
Odds Implied Score -
Power Rank Implied Line USC -14.9

Line Value Calculator

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USC
UCLA
Home field — Rose Bowl
Weather: Clear
Travel impact

Positive adjustment = favours home team

Does weather affect USC vs UCLA at Rose Bowl?

Game-time forecast at Rose Bowl shows Clear — 61.0°F, Feels Like 53.1°F with winds of 1.3 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. The weather adjustment has been pre-filled in the Line Value Calculator above — adjust manually if conditions change before kick-off.

Weather Conditions

Forecast for: July 05, 2026
Clear

Clear

61.0°F

Feels Like: 53.1°F
Wind: 1.3 mph ESE
Gusts: 2.8 mph
Precipitation: 0.0"
Humidity: 49%
Rain Chance: 2%
Snow Chance: 0%

Travel & Rest

USC (Away)

This Week: 12.3 miles
Last Week: Home Game
Season Total: 16310.6 miles
Body Clock Time: 21:00
Rest Days: 7

UCLA (Home)

This Week: 0.0 miles
Last Week: 3879.6 miles
Season Total: 13657.0 miles
Body Clock Time: 21:00
Rest Days: 7

What are the key factors for USC vs UCLA?

USC: Key Factors

Offensive line continuity and run game potential

USC returns all five starters on the offensive line, a group that Lincoln Riley believes can be the most dominant he's had. The running back tandem of Waymond Jordan and King Miller averaged 6.3 yards per carry last season. Against Fresno State's rebuilt front, USC should be able to establish the run and control the game tempo, especially with a home-field advantage of 2.2 points.

New-look receiving corps and quarterback chemistry

Jayden Maiava returns as an elite quarterback (second in QBR last season), but his top three targets from 2025 are gone. The new group includes Tanook Hines, NC State transfer Terrell Anderson, and freshman Boobie Feaster. Early-season chemistry will be critical; expect some growing pains but also explosive plays as Maiava builds rapport.

Gary Patterson's defensive debut with upgraded front

New defensive coordinator Gary Patterson inherits a deeper defensive line with transfers like Zuriah Fisher (Penn State) and freshmen like Jahkeem Stewart. The secondary returns Marcelles Williams and adds Jontez Williams (Iowa State). Fresno State's offense is unproven, giving USC's defense a chance to set the tone and generate pressure.

Special teams overhaul and return game uncertainty

USC has a new special teams coordinator (Mike Ekeler) and a new punter (Lachlan Carrigan). Kicker Ryon Sayeri is a reliable weapon, but the return game loses Makai Lemon. Hines, Mosley, and others will need to step up. Field position could be a factor in a game where USC is heavily favored.

Home opener with favorable weather and no travel

USC plays at home with zero travel miles and a 2.2-point home-field advantage. The forecast is cloudy and 60°F with light wind, ideal conditions for Maiava's passing attack. Fresno State must travel and adjust to the environment, giving USC a clear situational edge.

UCLA: Key Factors

New-look roster cohesion under first-year coach

UCLA enters the season with a largely overhauled roster under new head coach Bob Chesney, including key transfers from James Madison and other programs. The team's success hinges on how quickly these new pieces—especially along both lines and at receiver—can gel in a challenging road opener at Cal.

Nico Iamaleava's dual-threat ability is the offensive engine

Quarterback Nico Iamaleava returns as the centerpiece, combining a 64.4% completion rate with 505 rushing yards last season. His mobility and willingness to take hits are critical, but scouts question his downfield accuracy under pressure. Cal's defense will likely focus on containing his runs and forcing him to throw from the pocket.

Defensive strength in secondary vs. Cal's passing attack

UCLA's secondary is the defense's strongest unit, with returning safety Cole Martin, cornerback Rodrick Pleasant, and nickel Scooter Jackson, plus impact transfers like Utah safety Tao Johnson. This group should be well-equipped to handle Cal's passing game, especially if the Bruins can generate pressure with a rebuilt defensive line.

Weather and travel factors favor a low-scoring, grind-it-out game

The Bruins travel 343 miles to Berkeley, facing a forecast of light rain, 51°F, and 9 mph wind. These conditions typically suppress scoring and favor teams that can run the ball effectively. UCLA's running back duo of Wayne Knight and Anthony Woods will be crucial in controlling the clock and keeping the game manageable.

Special teams reliability provides a safety net

Placekicker Mateen Bhaghani has made 83% of his career field goals, including 39-of-45 inside 50 yards, while punter Curtis Gerrand averaged 43 yards per punt last season. In what could be a tight, low-scoring affair, field position and kicking accuracy may prove decisive for UCLA.

What do the matchup numbers say?

USC travels 12 miles to this game, a short road trip.

How do USC and UCLA compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favour USC (16.3) over UCLA (1.4) by 14.9 points on a neutral field. Despite playing at home, UCLA faces a power rating deficit. Check whether the market spread accounts for this gap. UCLA brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.2). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input — cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Sources

Weather

Blue Chip Analytics rates USC as the stronger team by 14.9 points on a neutral field; apply HFA and travel context before finalising a line read.