Baylor Hayes' dual-threat ability (376 rushing yards before sacks in 2025) will be critical against Oklahoma State's defense, especially with projected 26 mph winds limiting deep passing. Hayes' scrambling can extend plays and exploit any gaps in the Cowboys' rush lanes.

Tulsa must replace its top three rushers and receivers from 2025. Newcomer RB Trequan Jones (graded as the third-best transfer RB by PFF) will be relied upon heavily, but the lack of proven pass-catchers could stall drives against a Power 4 opponent.

Tulsa's secondary, led by All-Conference CB Elijah Green (5 INTs in 2025) and S Zach Williams (73 tackles, 2 FF), must prevent explosive plays that plagued the defense late last season. Oklahoma State's passing attack will test their discipline in windy conditions.

Playing at home (HFA 1.9) provides a boost, but 26 mph winds and rain could neutralize Tulsa's passing game and favor a ground-and-pound approach. The kicking game, with new kicker Marlon Hauck (no FGs in college), becomes a liability in adverse weather.

The loss of leading tackler Ray Coney (129 stops) to Texas A&M leaves a void in the middle. Chris Thompson Jr. returns from a broken ankle but may be rusty, making Tulsa vulnerable to Oklahoma State's run game and short-to-intermediate passes.

New OC Rick Bowie plans to push tempo and take more deep shots. QB Owen McCown, entering his third year as starter, is key to executing this attack. The receiving corps is deep with returning standouts David Amador II and AJ Wilson plus impact transfers TJ West and James Madison II. If McCown is fully recovered from sports hernia surgery, UTSA's passing game could be explosive against a first-year FBS opponent.

UTSA lost most of its defense but added key transfers: LB Brandon Tucker (FCS All-America), S Nate Robinson Jr. (Marist), and CB Asaad Chapman (JUCO). The defensive line returns anchors Tai Leonard, Johnny Bowens III, and Jameian Buxton. The unit's ability to gel quickly will be tested, but the talent infusion and home dome environment should help against UTRGV's offense.

The game is at home in a dome (HFA 2.9), eliminating weather concerns and giving UTSA a comfortable environment. No travel and a full offseason of rest provide optimal preparation. This should allow the Roadrunners to execute their new schemes cleanly and maintain energy throughout the game.

UT Rio Grande Valley is playing its first FBS season, likely lacking depth and experience at this level. UTSA's veteran roster, led by a third-year QB and a seventh-year head coach, should have a significant edge in discipline and execution. The Roadrunners can exploit mismatches early to build a comfortable lead.

Will Henderson III (866 yards, 6 TDs in 2025) returns as the lead back, with Cal transfer Brandon High Jr. adding depth. This duo can control the clock and wear down a less experienced defense. Their ability to run effectively will open up play-action for McCown and keep UTRGV's offense off the field.