DraftKings · as of August 22, 2026
Iowa State (power rating: 5.2) holds a 33.2-point advantage over Southeast Missouri State (-28.0) on a neutral field per Blue Chip Analytics. Iowa State's home field adds 2.9 points to that advantage at Jack Trice Stadium. The market line is Iowa State -29.5 and our model shows Iowa State -35.6; Major model-market disagreement - verify the inputs. Beyond home field, the model also charges the conditions. The weather component is provisional until the game-time reading is confirmed. Adjust the factors in the tool above to test your own numbers.
The Redhawks enter the season with a power rating well below Iowa State's, reflecting a significant talent and depth disparity typical of an FCS team facing a Power Four opponent. This gap is the central challenge for Southeast Missouri State, as they will need to overcome a substantial deficit in overall team strength to compete.
Playing at Jack Trice Stadium in Ames, Iowa, Southeast Missouri State will face a hostile environment with a strong home-field advantage. The Cyclones' venue is known for its noise and crowd impact, which can disrupt communication and execution for the visiting team, especially in early-season non-conference games.
As the season opener, neither team has played a game yet, but Southeast Missouri State is the underdog with less depth and fewer proven playmakers. The Redhawks will need to rely on their returning starters and scheme to stay competitive, but the lack of live reps against a higher-level opponent could expose weaknesses early.
With no betting line or prediction market available yet, the power rating disparity indicates that Iowa State is expected to be a heavy favorite. The market will likely reflect this gap when it opens, and Southeast Missouri State will need to outperform expectations to cover any spread.
Raynor threw for 3,361 yards and 19 touchdowns at Arkansas State in 2025, but he is learning a new scheme under Roehl, who emphasizes play-action. The receiving corps features returnee Dominic Overby and transfers Omari Hayes and Cody Jackson, who add explosiveness but lack chemistry with Raynor. This could lead to early timing issues against a Southeast Missouri State defense that may blitz heavily.
Kicker Kyle Konrardy is one of the nation's best, giving the Cyclones a dependable scoring option. Running back Aiden Flora averaged 26.1 yards per punt return with a touchdown, and Cameron Pettaway led the nation with a 33.0-yard kickoff return average. These units could flip field position or provide points if the offense stalls, which is critical against a FCS opponent that may struggle to keep pace.
Over 50 Cyclones entered the transfer portal, including 16 starters, and more than 45 transfers arrived. This level of turnover, combined with a new coaching staff, means the team's chemistry and execution are untested. Southeast Missouri State, as a disciplined FCS program, could capitalize on any early-season disorganization, especially if Iowa State's new pieces struggle to communicate.
The latest reading for Jack Trice Stadium shows Light rain shower, 72°F with winds of 14 mph. Gusts reaching 32 mph add variance to the kicking and passing game. Games with gusts at or above 30 mph have seen the total move down by about 1.4 points. It was taken before the ~10-day forecast window opened, so it describes the furthest hour the forecast reached rather than kickoff itself, and it is replaced once the game comes inside the window. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.
Prediction market pricing is not yet available for this game. The bookmaker spread of Iowa State -29.5 sets the line for now. The Blue Chip model makes it Iowa State -35.6; see the line value calculator below for the full breakdown.
Light rain shower
72°F
| Measure | Southeast Missouri StateAway | Iowa StateHome |
|---|---|---|
| This week | 391 miles | 0 miles |
| Last week | Bye week | Bye week |
| Season total | 391 miles | 0 miles |
| Body clock | 12:00 | 12:00 |
| Rest | 7 days | Season opener |
Southeast Missouri State travels 391 miles to this game, a short road trip. The trip crosses none of the distance or time-zone thresholds that have measured a price, so travel is not a factor here.
