Biggest Travel Disadvantages This Week
Teams ranked by how much further they traveled than their opponent. At a neutral site both teams travel, so the gap between them is the burden - not the raw trip. Body-clock offset and rest-day differential compound it.
2,756 miles · +3h body-clock shift · opponent +1d rest
UNLV travels 2,756 miles to face
Hawai'i, arriving with a +3h body-clock shift.
2,569 miles · +3h body-clock shift
Miami travels 2,569 miles to face
Stanford, arriving with a +3h body-clock shift.
2,045 miles · -3h body-clock shift · equal rest
1,999 miles · +3h body-clock shift
1,836 miles · -2h body-clock shift
Highest Weather-Risk Games This Week
Games ranked by combined wind, temperature, and precipitation impact. Thresholds: sustained wind ≥ 15 mph, gusts ≥ 25 mph, temp ≤ 32°F or ≥ 95°F, precipitation chance ≥ 60%.
102°F, 3 mph wind, 2% precip, Partly Cloudy
Oklahoma State @
Tulsa: 102°F, 3 mph wind, 2% precip, Partly Cloudy: conditions historically favor the home team when passing difficulty is elevated.
79°F, 22 mph wind, 20% precip, Patchy rain nearby
UNLV @
Hawai'i: 79°F, 22 mph wind, 20% precip, Patchy rain nearby: conditions historically favor the home team when passing difficulty is elevated.
93°F, 19 mph wind, 8% precip, Overcast
Morgan State @
Arizona State: 93°F, 19 mph wind, 8% precip, Overcast: conditions historically favor the home team when passing difficulty is elevated.
Strongest Home-Field Advantages This Week
Home teams ranked by stadium HFA rating. Higher values reflect stronger historical home performance at that venue. Venues above 4,000 ft are flagged for altitude disadvantage.
HFA 3.8 pts · Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex · 16,909 capacity
Hawai'i carries a 3.8-point HFA edge at Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex (16,909 capacity) against
UNLV.
HFA 3.8 pts · Alamodome · 64,000 capacity
HFA 3.6 pts · Ben Hill Griffin Stadium · 88,548 capacity
Vegas versus Prediction Markets
The bookmaker's spread against the spread implied by the Kalshi prediction market - two markets, no model. When they disagree, it is worth asking which one moves.
Book: Missouri -55.5 · Market: Missouri -29.9 · Gap: 25.6 pts
The bookmaker line is
Missouri -55.5; the prediction market implies
Missouri -29.9, a notable divergence from the book. Two markets, no model - a wide gap is one side waiting to move.
Book: Virginia Tech -55.5 · Market: Virginia Tech -29.9 · Gap: 25.6 pts
The bookmaker line is
Virginia Tech -55.5; the prediction market implies
Virginia Tech -29.9, a notable divergence from the book. Two markets, no model - a wide gap is one side waiting to move.
Book: Ohio State -51.0 · Market: Ohio State -29.9 · Gap: 21.1 pts
The bookmaker line is
Ohio State -51.0; the prediction market implies
Ohio State -29.9, a notable divergence from the book. Two markets, no model - a wide gap is one side waiting to move.
Week 1 Picks: Where the Model Disagrees with the Spread
The side the Blue Chip model favors against the bookmaker's spread, strongest disagreement first; a game is listed only where the model line and the book line differ by at least 1 point. These are model-versus-spread leans, not a service: no record is kept or published, and the line you can get may differ.
Pick: -41.2MercyH · Strong value · Model: Mercyhurst -12.7 · Book: New Mexico State -28.5
The model makes it
Mercyhurst -12.7 against a book line of New Mexico State -28.5; it sees strong value on Mercyhurst, 41.2 points off the spread.
Pick: -33.5Ut Tech · Strong value · Model: BYU -18.1 · Book: BYU -51.5
The model makes it
BYU -18.1 against a book line of BYU -51.5; it sees strong value on Utah Tech, 33.5 points off the spread.
Pick: -32.3W Geor · Strong value · Model: West Georgia -9.8 · Book: Kennesaw State -22.5
The model makes it
West Georgia -9.8 against a book line of Kennesaw State -22.5; it sees strong value on West Georgia, 32.3 points off the spread.
Pick: -25.1UTRGV · Strong value · Model: UTSA -3.4 · Book: UTSA -28.5
The model makes it
UTSA -3.4 against a book line of UTSA -28.5; it sees strong value on UT Rio Grande Valley, 25.1 points off the spread.
Pick: -19.3VMI · Strong value · Model: Virginia Tech -36.2 · Book: Virginia Tech -55.5 · Prediction market: Virginia Tech -29.9
The model makes it
Virginia Tech -36.2 against a book line of Virginia Tech -55.5; it sees strong value on VMI, 19.3 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Virginia Tech -29.9, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: -17.9Tenn St · Strong value · Model: Georgia -28.6 · Book: Georgia -46.5
The model makes it
Georgia -28.6 against a book line of Georgia -46.5; it sees strong value on Tennessee State, 17.9 points off the spread.
Pick: -15.8UNH · Strong value · Model: Syracuse -19.7 · Book: Syracuse -35.5 · Prediction market: Syracuse -29.9
The model makes it
Syracuse -19.7 against a book line of Syracuse -35.5; it sees strong value on New Hampshire, 15.8 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Syracuse -29.9, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: -14.0CIT · Strong value · Model: Charlotte -6.5 · Book: Charlotte -20.5 · Prediction market: Charlotte -15.4
The model makes it
Charlotte -6.5 against a book line of Charlotte -20.5; it sees strong value on The Citadel, 14.0 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Charlotte -15.4, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: -13.5NCAT · Strong value · Model: Georgia State -15.0 · Book: Georgia State -28.5 · Prediction market: Georgia State -19.8
The model makes it
Georgia State -15.0 against a book line of Georgia State -28.5; it sees strong value on North Carolina A&T, 13.5 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Georgia State -19.8, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: -12.8MRMK · Strong value · Model: Delaware -18.7 · Book: Delaware -31.5 · Prediction market: Delaware -23.8
The model makes it
Delaware -18.7 against a book line of Delaware -31.5; it sees strong value on Merrimack, 12.8 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Delaware -23.8, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: -11.8PRST · Strong value · Model: San Diego State -28.7 · Book: San Diego State -40.5 · Prediction market: San Diego State -29.9
The model makes it
San Diego State -28.7 against a book line of San Diego State -40.5; it sees strong value on Portland State, 11.8 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies San Diego State -29.9, a modest gap from the model.
Pick: -11.6NWST · Strong value · Model: Louisiana Tech -32.9 · Book: Louisiana Tech -44.5 · Prediction market: Louisiana Tech -29.9
The model makes it
Louisiana Tech -32.9 against a book line of Louisiana Tech -44.5; it sees strong value on Northwestern State, 11.6 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Louisiana Tech -29.9, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: -10.3BRY · Strong value · Model: Army -26.7 · Book: Army -37.0 · Prediction market: Army -27.2
The model makes it
Army -26.7 against a book line of Army -37.0; it sees strong value on Bryant, 10.3 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Army -27.2, in line with the model.
Pick: -9.3FOR · Strong value · Model: North Dakota State -32.3 · Book: North Dakota State -41.5 · Prediction market: North Dakota State -29.9
The model makes it
North Dakota State -32.3 against a book line of North Dakota State -41.5; it sees strong value on Fordham, 9.2 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies North Dakota State -29.9, a modest gap from the model.
Pick: -8.4TOW · Strong value · Model: Navy -22.1 · Book: Navy -30.5 · Prediction market: Navy -23.8
The model makes it
Navy -22.1 against a book line of Navy -30.5; it sees strong value on Towson, 8.4 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Navy -23.8, a modest gap from the model.
Pick: -8.2FUR · Strong value · Model: Tennessee -40.4 · Book: Tennessee -48.5 · Prediction market: Tennessee -29.9
The model makes it
Tennessee -40.4 against a book line of Tennessee -48.5; it sees strong value on Furman, 8.2 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Tennessee -29.9, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: +8.1JMU · Strong value · Model: James Madison -14.1 · Book: James Madison -6.0 · Prediction market: James Madison -4.8
The model makes it
James Madison -14.1 against a book line of James Madison -6.0; it sees strong value on James Madison, 8.1 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies James Madison -4.8, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: -7.9CCU · Strong value · Model: West Virginia -13.1 · Book: West Virginia -21.0 · Prediction market: West Virginia -16.3
The model makes it
West Virginia -13.1 against a book line of West Virginia -21.0; it sees strong value on Coastal Carolina, 7.9 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies West Virginia -16.3, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: +7.4USM · Strong value · Model: Southern Miss -24.9 · Book: Southern Miss -17.5 · Prediction market: Southern Miss -15.4
The model makes it
Southern Miss -24.9 against a book line of Southern Miss -17.5; it sees strong value on Southern Miss, 7.4 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Southern Miss -15.4, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: -7.0MUR · Strong value · Model: Middle Tennessee -14.5 · Book: Middle Tennessee -21.5 · Prediction market: Middle Tennessee -16.3
The model makes it
Middle Tennessee -14.5 against a book line of Middle Tennessee -21.5; it sees strong value on Murray State, 7.0 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Middle Tennessee -16.3, a modest gap from the model.
Pick: -6.9UNT · Strong value · Model: Indiana -33.6 · Book: Indiana -40.5 · Prediction market: Indiana -29.9
The model makes it
Indiana -33.6 against a book line of Indiana -40.5; it sees strong value on North Texas, 6.9 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Indiana -29.9, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: +6.9OSU · Strong value · Model: Ohio State -57.9 · Book: Ohio State -51.0 · Prediction market: Ohio State -29.9
The model makes it
Ohio State -57.9 against a book line of Ohio State -51.0; it sees strong value on Ohio State, 6.9 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Ohio State -29.9, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: -6.8TAR · Strong value · Model: Tarleton State -5.3 · Book: Bowling Green -1.5 · Prediction market: Bowling Green -0.8
The model makes it
Tarleton State -5.3 against a book line of Bowling Green -1.5; it sees strong value on Tarleton State, 6.8 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Bowling Green -0.8, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: -6.0OHIO · Strong value · Model: Nebraska -18.0 · Book: Nebraska -24.0 · Prediction market: Nebraska -18.5
The model makes it
Nebraska -18.0 against a book line of Nebraska -24.0; it sees strong value on Ohio, 6.0 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Nebraska -18.5, in line with the model.
Pick: -6.0WKU · Strong value · Model: Western Kentucky -5.0 · Book: Nevada -1.0 · Prediction market: Nevada -0.1
The model makes it
Western Kentucky -5.0 against a book line of Nevada -1.0; it sees strong value on Western Kentucky, 6.0 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Nevada -0.1, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: -6.0TOL · Strong value · Model: Michigan State -4.5 · Book: Michigan State -10.5 · Prediction market: Michigan State -8.4
The model makes it
Michigan State -4.5 against a book line of Michigan State -10.5; it sees strong value on Toledo, 6.0 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Michigan State -8.4, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: -6.0INST · Strong value · Model: Purdue -28.5 · Book: Purdue -34.5 · Prediction market: Purdue -27.2
The model makes it
Purdue -28.5 against a book line of Purdue -34.5; it sees strong value on Indiana State, 6.0 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Purdue -27.2, a modest gap from the model.
Pick: -5.9LIU · Strong value · Model: Kansas -37.6 · Book: Kansas -43.5 · Prediction market: Kansas -29.9
The model makes it
Kansas -37.6 against a book line of Kansas -43.5; it sees strong value on Long Island University, 5.9 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Kansas -29.9, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: +5.9TLSA · Strong value · Model: Oklahoma State -7.6 · Book: Oklahoma State -13.5 · Prediction market: Oklahoma State -10.1
The model makes it
Oklahoma State -7.6 against a book line of Oklahoma State -13.5; it sees strong value on Tulsa, 5.9 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Oklahoma State -10.1, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: -5.9NORF · Strong value · Model: Old Dominion -34.6 · Book: Old Dominion -40.5 · Prediction market: Old Dominion -29.9
The model makes it
Old Dominion -34.6 against a book line of Old Dominion -40.5; it sees strong value on Norfolk State, 5.9 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Old Dominion -29.9, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: -5.8BCU · Strong value · Model: UCF -36.7 · Book: UCF -42.5 · Prediction market: UCF -29.9
The model makes it
UCF -36.7 against a book line of UCF -42.5; it sees strong value on Bethune-Cookman, 5.8 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies UCF -29.9, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: -5.8SD St · Strong value · Model: Northwestern -6.7 · Book: Northwestern -12.5
The model makes it
Northwestern -6.7 against a book line of Northwestern -12.5; it sees strong value on South Dakota State, 5.8 points off the spread.
Pick: -5.6MORG · Strong value · Model: Arizona State -38.9 · Book: Arizona State -44.5 · Prediction market: Arizona State -29.9
The model makes it
Arizona State -38.9 against a book line of Arizona State -44.5; it sees strong value on Morgan State, 5.6 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Arizona State -29.9, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: -5.4UAPB · Strong value · Model: Missouri -50.1 · Book: Missouri -55.5 · Prediction market: Missouri -29.9
The model makes it
Missouri -50.1 against a book line of Missouri -55.5; it sees strong value on Arkansas-Pine Bluff, 5.4 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Missouri -29.9, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: +5.3RUTG · Strong value · Model: Rutgers -34.8 · Book: Rutgers -29.5 · Prediction market: Rutgers -23.8
The model makes it
Rutgers -34.8 against a book line of Rutgers -29.5; it sees strong value on Rutgers, 5.3 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Rutgers -23.8, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: +5.3ISU · Strong value · Model: Iowa State -35.8 · Book: Iowa State -30.5 · Prediction market: Iowa State -23.8
The model makes it
Iowa State -35.8 against a book line of Iowa State -30.5; it sees strong value on Iowa State, 5.3 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Iowa State -23.8, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: +5.3PSU · Strong value · Model: Penn State -28.3 · Book: Penn State -23.0 · Prediction market: Penn State -18.5
The model makes it
Penn State -28.3 against a book line of Penn State -23.0; it sees strong value on Penn State, 5.3 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Penn State -18.5, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: +5.3CIN · Strong value · Model: Cincinnati -12.8 · Book: Cincinnati -7.5 · Prediction market: Cincinnati -6.0
The model makes it
Cincinnati -12.8 against a book line of Cincinnati -7.5; it sees strong value on Cincinnati, 5.2 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Cincinnati -6.0, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: -4.9LAM · Strong value · Model: Louisiana -15.6 · Book: Louisiana -20.5 · Prediction market: Louisiana -15.4
The model makes it
Louisiana -15.6 against a book line of Louisiana -20.5; it sees strong value on Lamar, 4.9 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Louisiana -15.4, in line with the model.
Pick: -4.4SELA · Strong value · Model: South Alabama -9.1 · Book: South Alabama -13.5 · Prediction market: South Alabama -10.5
The model makes it
South Alabama -9.1 against a book line of South Alabama -13.5; it sees strong value on SE Louisiana, 4.4 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies South Alabama -10.5, a modest gap from the model.
Pick: -4.3UNA · Strong value · Model: Arkansas -36.2 · Book: Arkansas -40.5 · Prediction market: Arkansas -29.9
The model makes it
Arkansas -36.2 against a book line of Arkansas -40.5; it sees strong value on North Alabama, 4.3 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Arkansas -29.9, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: -4.2HCU · Strong value · Model: Rice -18.3 · Book: Rice -22.5 · Prediction market: Rice -17.3
The model makes it
Rice -18.3 against a book line of Rice -22.5; it sees strong value on Houston Christian, 4.2 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Rice -17.3, in line with the model.
Pick: +4.2MEM · Strong value · Model: Memphis -15.2 · Book: Memphis -11.0 · Prediction market: Memphis -8.8
The model makes it
Memphis -15.2 against a book line of Memphis -11.0; it sees strong value on Memphis, 4.2 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Memphis -8.8, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: -3.9URI · Value · Model: Temple -10.6 · Book: Temple -14.5 · Prediction market: Temple -11.1
The model makes it
Temple -10.6 against a book line of Temple -14.5; it sees value on Rhode Island, 3.9 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Temple -11.1, in line with the model.
Pick: +3.6UK · Value · Model: Kentucky -26.1 · Book: Kentucky -22.5 · Prediction market: Kentucky -17.3
The model makes it
Kentucky -26.1 against a book line of Kentucky -22.5; it sees value on Kentucky, 3.6 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Kentucky -17.3, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: -3.5UALB · Value · Model: Buffalo -15.0 · Book: Buffalo -18.5 · Prediction market: Buffalo -13.3
The model makes it
Buffalo -15.0 against a book line of Buffalo -18.5; it sees value on UAlbany, 3.5 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Buffalo -13.3, a modest gap from the model.
Pick: +3.5USF · Value · Model: South Florida -18.0 · Book: South Florida -14.5 · Prediction market: South Florida -11.0
The model makes it
South Florida -18.0 against a book line of South Florida -14.5; it sees value on South Florida, 3.5 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies South Florida -11.0, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: -3.4NAU · Value · Model: Arizona -28.1 · Book: Arizona -31.5 · Prediction market: Arizona -27.1
The model makes it
Arizona -28.1 against a book line of Arizona -31.5; it sees value on Northern Arizona, 3.4 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Arizona -27.1, a modest gap from the model.
Pick: +3.4HAW · Value · Model: Hawai'i -0.4 · Book: UNLV -3.0 · Prediction market: UNLV -1.3
The model makes it
Hawai'i -0.4 against a book line of UNLV -3.0; it sees value on Hawai'i, 3.4 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies UNLV -1.3, a modest gap from the model.
Pick: -3.4ECU · Value · Model: Alabama -24.6 · Book: Alabama -28.0 · Prediction market: Alabama -23.8
The model makes it
Alabama -24.6 against a book line of Alabama -28.0; it sees value on East Carolina, 3.4 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Alabama -23.8, in line with the model.
Pick: +3.3VAN · Value · Model: Vanderbilt -31.8 · Book: Vanderbilt -28.5 · Prediction market: Vanderbilt -21.6
The model makes it
Vanderbilt -31.8 against a book line of Vanderbilt -28.5; it sees value on Vanderbilt, 3.3 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Vanderbilt -21.6, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: -3.1WSU · Value · Model: Washington -19.9 · Book: Washington -23.0 · Prediction market: Washington -17.3
The model makes it
Washington -19.9 against a book line of Washington -23.0; it sees value on Washington State, 3.1 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Washington -17.3, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: -3.0WMU · Value · Model: Michigan -24.5 · Book: Michigan -27.5 · Prediction market: Michigan -23.8
The model makes it
Michigan -24.5 against a book line of Michigan -27.5; it sees value on Western Michigan, 3.0 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Michigan -23.8, in line with the model.
Pick: -2.8SJSU · Value · Model: Eastern Michigan -0.2 · Book: Eastern Michigan -3.0 · Prediction market: Eastern Michigan -0.7
The model makes it
Eastern Michigan -0.2 against a book line of Eastern Michigan -3.0; it sees value on San José State, 2.8 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Eastern Michigan -0.7, in line with the model.
Pick: +2.7CAL · Value · Model: California -0.2 · Book: UCLA -2.5 · Prediction market: UCLA -1.7
The model makes it
California -0.2 against a book line of UCLA -2.5; it sees value on California, 2.7 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies UCLA -1.7, a modest gap from the model.
Pick: +2.7GT · Value · Model: Georgia Tech -8.7 · Book: Georgia Tech -6.0 · Prediction market: Georgia Tech -4.8
The model makes it
Georgia Tech -8.7 against a book line of Georgia Tech -6.0; it sees value on Georgia Tech, 2.7 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Georgia Tech -4.8, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: -2.6KENT · Value · Model: South Carolina -33.9 · Book: South Carolina -36.5 · Prediction market: South Carolina -29.9
The model makes it
South Carolina -33.9 against a book line of South Carolina -36.5; it sees value on Kent State, 2.6 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies South Carolina -29.9, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: +2.5ORE · Value · Model: Oregon -27.6 · Book: Oregon -25.0 · Prediction market: Oregon -21.5
The model makes it
Oregon -27.6 against a book line of Oregon -25.0; it sees value on Oregon, 2.5 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Oregon -21.5, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: +2.5MISS · Value · Model: Ole Miss -8.9 · Book: Ole Miss -6.5 · Prediction market: Ole Miss -5.3
The model makes it
Ole Miss -8.9 against a book line of Ole Miss -6.5; it sees value on Ole Miss, 2.5 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Ole Miss -5.3, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: -2.3DUQ · Slight lean · Model: Air Force -27.2 · Book: Air Force -29.5 · Prediction market: Air Force -23.8
The model makes it
Air Force -27.2 against a book line of Air Force -29.5; it sees a slight lean toward Duquesne, 2.3 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Air Force -23.8, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: +2.1ILL · Slight lean · Model: Illinois -29.6 · Book: Illinois -27.5 · Prediction market: Illinois -19.9
The model makes it
Illinois -29.6 against a book line of Illinois -27.5; it sees a slight lean toward Illinois, 2.1 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Illinois -19.9, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: +1.9USU · Slight lean · Model: Utah State -15.9 · Book: Utah State -14.0 · Prediction market: Utah State -11.1
The model makes it
Utah State -15.9 against a book line of Utah State -14.0; it sees a slight lean toward Utah State, 1.9 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Utah State -11.1, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: +1.9STAN · Slight lean · Model: Miami -21.6 · Book: Miami -23.5 · Prediction market: Miami -18.5
The model makes it
Miami -21.6 against a book line of Miami -23.5; it sees a slight lean toward Stanford, 1.9 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Miami -18.5, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: -1.9WYO · Slight lean · Model: Colorado State -1.1 · Book: Colorado State -3.0 · Prediction market: Colorado State -1.9
The model makes it
Colorado State -1.1 against a book line of Colorado State -3.0; it sees a slight lean toward Wyoming, 1.9 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Colorado State -1.9, in line with the model.
Pick: +1.7CONN · Slight lean · Model: UConn -21.2 · Book: UConn -19.5 · Prediction market: UConn -16.3
The model makes it
UConn -21.2 against a book line of UConn -19.5; it sees a slight lean toward UConn, 1.7 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies UConn -16.3, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: +1.7TROY · Slight lean · Model: Troy -18.2 · Book: Troy -16.5 · Prediction market: Troy -12.1
The model makes it
Troy -18.2 against a book line of Troy -16.5; it sees a slight lean toward Troy, 1.7 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Troy -12.1, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: +1.7USC · Slight lean · Model: USC -23.2 · Book: USC -21.5 · Prediction market: USC -16.4
The model makes it
USC -23.2 against a book line of USC -21.5; it sees a slight lean toward USC, 1.7 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies USC -16.4, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: +1.7IOWA · Slight lean · Model: Iowa -33.7 · Book: Iowa -32.0 · Prediction market: Iowa -27.2
The model makes it
Iowa -33.7 against a book line of Iowa -32.0; it sees a slight lean toward Iowa, 1.7 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Iowa -27.2, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: -1.6ME · Slight lean · Model: App State -17.9 · Book: App State -19.5 · Prediction market: App State -15.4
The model makes it
App State -17.9 against a book line of App State -19.5; it sees a slight lean toward Maine, 1.6 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies App State -15.4, a modest gap from the model.
Pick: -1.4ULM · Slight lean · Model: Mississippi State -27.1 · Book: Mississippi State -28.5 · Prediction market: Mississippi State -21.6
The model makes it
Mississippi State -27.1 against a book line of Mississippi State -28.5; it sees a slight lean toward UL Monroe, 1.4 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Mississippi State -21.6, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: +1.3OU · Slight lean · Model: Oklahoma -42.8 · Book: Oklahoma -41.5 · Prediction market: Oklahoma -29.9
The model makes it
Oklahoma -42.8 against a book line of Oklahoma -41.5; it sees a slight lean toward Oklahoma, 1.3 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Oklahoma -29.9, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: -1.3CHSO · Slight lean · Model: Georgia Southern -25.2 · Book: Georgia Southern -26.5 · Prediction market: Georgia Southern -19.9
The model makes it
Georgia Southern -25.2 against a book line of Georgia Southern -26.5; it sees a slight lean toward Charleston Southern, 1.3 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Georgia Southern -19.9, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: +1.1LSU · Slight lean · Model: LSU -10.6 · Book: LSU -9.5 · Prediction market: LSU -8.0
The model makes it
LSU -10.6 against a book line of LSU -9.5; it sees a slight lean toward LSU, 1.1 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies LSU -8.0, a notable divergence from the model.
How We Ranked Week 1's Games
Each ranked section draws from the same enriched data that powers our per-game pages.
Travel distances are calculated as straight-line (great-circle) distances from each team's home
market to the game stadium. Body-clock offset is the signed time-zone difference the away team
crosses, or both teams in case of neutral site games. Rest-day differential is the difference in
days since each team last played. Weather scoring compounds wind, temperature, and precipitation
against fixed thresholds, dome stadiums are excluded as weather is irrelevant indoors, see our
Weather tool for the full methodology.
HFA ratings come from our
Home Field Advantage tool, which estimates
the per-venue point value based on historical margin-of-victory data. Stadiums above 4,000 ft
are flagged; altitude creates a documented visiting-team disadvantage. Power ratings are from the
Blue Chip power-rating model. A pick is the
side the model favors where its line and the market line differ by at least
1 point, graded on the same ladder the per-game pages use.
The Vegas versus Prediction Markets section compares the bookmaker's spread with the spread
implied by the Kalshi prediction market - converted from its win probability through a fixed
logistic scale - with no model involved. The Picks section sets the Blue Chip model line
against the bookmaker line, with the Kalshi-implied line beneath each pick as a second read.
ATS records are season-to-date.
Frequently Asked Questions
How many games are in college football Week 1 2026?
Week 1 of the 2026 FBS season features 91 games tracked by Blue Chip Analytics. The full schedule, lines, and totals are listed in the game table on this page.
How does Blue Chip Analytics rank travel disadvantages?
Teams are ranked by how much further they traveled than their opponent, measured as straight-line distance from each home market to the game stadium. At a home game the host travels nothing, so this is simply the visitor's trip; at a neutral site both teams travel and the gap between them is the burden. Body-clock offset (time-zone hours crossed) is listed alongside distance as a compound fatigue indicator.
What weather conditions qualify as high-risk for this week?
Games are flagged when the kickoff-hour forecast meets at least one of: sustained wind ≥ 15 mph, gusts ≥ 25 mph, temperature ≤ 32°F or ≥ 95°F, or a precipitation chance ≥ 60%. Scores compound across all factors: a cold and windy game ranks higher than a mildly breezy one. Weeks with no game past these thresholds show no weather section at all.
What is a Home Field Advantage (HFA) rating?
Blue Chip's HFA rating estimates the point value of playing at home at a specific stadium, based on historical margin-of-victory data. A rating of 3.0 means the home team historically performs about 3 points better at that venue than their power ratings alone would predict.
What does the Vegas versus Prediction Markets section show?
It ranks games by how far the bookmaker's spread sits from the spread implied by the Kalshi prediction market. Kalshi's win probability is converted to a spread through a fixed logistic scale, and no model is involved - it is one market against another. A wide gap is a directional flag, not a betting recommendation.
What are the Week 1 2026 picks?
Each pick is the side the Blue Chip model favors against the bookmaker's spread, listed only where the model line and the book line differ by at least 1 point and ranked by the size of that gap, graded on the same ladder the per-game pages use. The Kalshi-implied line sits beneath each as a second market read. These are model-versus-spread leans, not a service: no record is kept or published, and the line you can get may differ.
What qualifies as a notable ATS record?
Teams are flagged when at least 4 of their games this season have produced a decided ATS result and their cover rate is ≥60% (hot) or ≤40% (cold). Records are season-to-date and, especially early on, rest on small samples - a hot or cold streak here is context to note, not a demonstrated edge.
Week 1 of the 2026 season features 91 FBS games; the ranked sections above surface the travel, weather, HFA, market-vs-market and ATS-record angles, and the picks where the model disagrees with the spread.
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