Week 3
FBC Mortgage Stadium

Georgia State @ UCF , Week 3, Sep 19, 2026

0-0 Sun Belt Power rating: -18.6
0-0 Big 12 Power rating: 0.6

Is there value in the Georgia State vs UCF line?

Market line
None posted
PM Implied
Not yet available
Blue Chip model
UCF -22.4
Edge
No line posted
See details
◂ favors GASTfavors UCF ▸
19.2 › UCF
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1 GAST1 UCF2 GAST2 UCF3 GAST3 UCFModel: UCF -22.4

UCF (power rating: 0.6) holds a 19.2-point advantage over Georgia State (-18.6) on a neutral field per Blue Chip Analytics. UCF's home field adds 3.2 points to that advantage at FBC Mortgage Stadium. Beyond home field, nothing else applies here - rest, travel, elevation and weather all read neutral for this matchup. Adjust the factors in the tool above to test your own numbers.

Does weather affect Georgia State vs UCF at FBC Mortgage Stadium?

The latest reading for FBC Mortgage Stadium shows Patchy rain nearby, 76°F with winds of 5 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. It was taken before the ~10-day forecast window opened, so it describes the furthest hour the forecast reached rather than kickoff itself, and it is replaced once the game comes inside the window. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

How do Georgia State and UCF compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor UCF (0.6) over Georgia State (-18.6) by 19.2 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. UCF brings one of the stronger home environments in the FBS to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 3.2). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Sources

Weather

Blue Chip makes this UCF -22.4. No market line is posted yet for comparison.

Conditions

as of August 22, 2026 Preliminary

Patchy rain nearby

76°F

Rain46%
Precip0.01"
Humidity83%
Wind5 mph SSE
Gusts9 mph
Wind map for Georgia State at UCF: aerial view of FBC Mortgage Stadium, wind from the SSE at 5.1 mph, gusting to 8.8 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 3
Kickoff (local)
07:00 PM EDT
Venue
FBC Mortgage Stadium
Capacity
44,206
Elevation
75 ft
Surface
Grass

Travel and rest

Measure Georgia StateAway UCFHome
This week401 miles0 miles
Last week45 miles1,638 miles
Season total446 miles1,638 miles
Body clock19:0019:00
Rest7 days7 days

Georgia State travels 401 miles to this game, a moderate road trip. The trip crosses none of the distance or time-zone thresholds that have measured a price, so travel is not a factor here.