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Week 13 •
Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium

Sam Houston17 @FINAL 31Middle Tennessee

2-8 CUSA Power rating: -17.7
1-9 CUSA Power rating: -15.8

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
MTSU -6.5
PM Implied
MTSU -4.8
Blue Chip model
MTSU -4.2
Edge
-2.3SHSU
See details
◂ favors SHSUfavors MTSU ▸Market: MTSU -6.5
MTSU
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
MTSU
no impact
no impact
no impact
no impact
1 SHSU1 MTSU2 SHSU2 MTSUModel: MTSU -4.2

Betting information

Spread
MTSU -6.5
Total
53.5
Odds implied score
SHSU 23.5 – 30.0 MTSU
Prediction markets
MTSU 69% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

Middle Tennessee defeated Sam Houston 31–17 in a double-digit victory. Middle Tennessee covered by 7.5; Game went Under by 5.5. The market closed at Middle Tennessee -6.5 and the Blue Chip model made it Middle Tennessee -4.2, an edge of 2.3 points toward Sam Houston.

What were the weather conditions for Sam Houston vs Middle Tennessee?

At kickoff, conditions at Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium were Overcast, 56°F with winds of 6 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Sam Houston travels 638 miles to this game, a moderate road trip.

The trip crosses none of the distance or time-zone thresholds that have measured a price, so travel is not a factor here.

Middle Tennessee won by 14 in a double-digit victory.

Middle Tennessee covered the spread by a solid margin.

The total went Under by 5.5 points.

How do Sam Houston and Middle Tennessee compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Middle Tennessee (-15.8) over Sam Houston (-17.7) by 1.9 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. Middle Tennessee brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.3). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Sam Houston and Middle Tennessee?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

Middle Tennessee won and Middle Tennessee covered the spread.

Conditions

as of November 22, 2025 Game-time

Overcast

56°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity89%
Wind6 mph N
Gusts9 mph
Snow chance0%
Wind map for Sam Houston at Middle Tennessee: aerial view of Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium, wind from the N at 6 mph, gusting to 8.5 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 13
Kickoff (local)
02:00 PM CST
Venue
Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium
Capacity
27,303
Elevation
656 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

Sam HoustonAway Middle TennesseeHome
This week638 miles0 miles
Last weekHome game157 miles
Season total15,348 miles6,483 miles
Body clock14:0014:00
Rest6 days7 days

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