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Week 13 •
Kinnick Stadium

Michigan State17 @FINAL 20Iowa

3-7 Big Ten Power rating: 5.3
6-4 Big Ten Power rating: 19.3

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
IOWA -17.5
PM Implied
IOWA -12.5
Blue Chip model
IOWA -16.1
Edge
-1.4MSU
See details
◂ favors MSUfavors IOWA ▸Market: IOWA -17.5
14.0 › IOWA
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
IOWA
no impact
no impact
no impact
no impact
1 MSU1 IOWA2 MSU2 IOWAModel: IOWA -16.1

Betting information

Spread
IOWA -17.5
Total
42.5
Odds implied score
MSU 12.5 – 30.0 IOWA
Prediction markets
IOWA 89% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

Iowa defeated Michigan State 20–17 in a nail-biter. Michigan State covered by 14.5; Game went Under by 5.5. The market closed at Iowa -17.5 and the Blue Chip model made it Iowa -16.1, an edge of 1.4 points toward Michigan State.

What are the key factors for Michigan State vs Iowa?

Michigan State

Fourth Quarter Collapse

Michigan State led 17-7 after three quarters but allowed Iowa to score 13 unanswered points in the fourth quarter, including a game-tying touchdown with 1:29 left and a game-winning field goal as time expired. The Spartans' offense managed only 26 yards in the fourth quarter, highlighting a critical inability to sustain drives or protect a lead.

Special Teams Vulnerability

Iowa's Kaden Wetjen returned a punt 62 yards for a touchdown in the first quarter and set up the game-tying drive with a 40-yard punt return late in the fourth quarter. Michigan State's punting game was exploited, and coach Jonathan Smith acknowledged special teams as a key factor in the loss.

Quarterback Performance

Alessio Milivojevic threw for 255 yards and two third-quarter touchdowns to Chrishon McCray, giving the Spartans a 10-point lead. However, he could not generate any offense in the fourth quarter, and the team's overall offensive output (335 yards) was not enough to overcome the defensive and special teams lapses.

Losing Streak Continues

The loss extended Michigan State's losing streak to eight games overall and nine consecutive Big Ten losses. The team has not won since September and is now 3-8 overall, 0-8 in conference play, with only one game remaining against Maryland.

Next Game Outlook

Michigan State faces Maryland in Detroit on Saturday. The Spartans will need to address their fourth-quarter execution, special teams coverage, and ability to close out games to have a chance at ending their losing streak. The team's morale is low after another close loss, and they must find a way to finish strong.

What were the weather conditions for Michigan State vs Iowa?

At kickoff, conditions at Kinnick Stadium were Clear, 41°F, wind chill 36°F with winds of 9 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Michigan State travels 370 miles to this game, a short road trip.

Michigan State arrives with a 1-hour westward body clock shift, short of the two-zone westward threshold where travel starts to price.

Iowa won by 3 in a nail-biter.

Michigan State covered the spread comfortably.

The total went Under by 5.5 points.

How do Michigan State and Iowa compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Iowa (19.3) over Michigan State (5.3) by 14.0 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. Iowa brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.1). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Michigan State and Iowa?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

Iowa won and Michigan State covered the spread.

Conditions

as of November 22, 2025 Game-time

Clear

41°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity68%
Wind9 mph SW
Gusts19 mph
Wind chill36°F
Snow chance0%
Wind map for Michigan State at Iowa: aerial view of Kinnick Stadium, wind from the SW at 9.2 mph, gusting to 19.2 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 13
Kickoff (local)
02:30 PM CST
Venue
Kinnick Stadium
Capacity
69,250
Elevation
722 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

Michigan StateAway IowaHome
This week370 miles0 miles
Last weekHome game3,094 miles
Season total6,952 miles5,396 miles
Body clock15:3014:30
Rest7 days7 days

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