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Week 13 • November 22, 2025, 08:30 PM UTC
Michigan State @ Iowa
3-7
Big Ten
Power Rank: 5.3
17 FINAL 20
6-4
Big Ten
Power Rank: 19.3
Michigan State covered by 13.5 | Game went Under by 5.5

By · Last updated

Iowa defeated Michigan State 20–17 in a nail-biter.

Michigan State @ Iowa Preview

General Information

Week: Week 13
Kick Off (at stadium): 02:30 PM CST
Stadium: Kinnick Stadium
Capacity: 69,250
Elevation: 722 ft
HFA Rating: 2.7
Playing Surface: Artifical Turf

Betting Information

Spread Iowa -16.5
Total (O/U) 42.5
Expected Score MSU 13.0 - 29.5 IOWA
Power Rank Implied Line Iowa +14.0
Prediction Markets Iowa 89% Win Chance (Kalshi)

Weather Conditions

Forecast for: February 02, 2026
Clear

Clear

18.9°F

Wind Chill: 7.6°F
Wind: 9.8 mph NNW
Gusts: 15.4 mph
Precipitation: 0.01"
Humidity: 86%
Rain Chance: 0%
Snow Chance: 0%

Travel & Rest

Michigan State (Away)

This Week: 370.0 miles
Last Week: Home Game
Season Total: 7108.3 miles
Body Clock Time: 15:30
Rest Days: 7

Iowa (Home)

This Week: 0.0 miles
Last Week: 3093.8 miles
Season Total: 5944.9 miles
Body Clock Time: 14:30
Rest Days: 7

Line Value Calculator

Adjust factors to calculate your projected line

Betting Information
Current Line Iowa -16.5
Total Points 42.5
Blue Chip Analytics Power Rating
Michigan State 5.3
Iowa 19.3
Travel Impact
Away Team Travel 370 mi
Home Team Travel 0 mi
Rest Even
HFA: Kinnick Stadium
Capacity 69,250
Elevation 722 ft
Weather: Clear
Temperature 18.9°F
Wind Speed 9.8 mph
Your Line Iowa +14.0
Implied Value —

What are the key factors for Michigan State vs Iowa?

Michigan State: Key Factors

Iowa: Key Factors

What happened in the game?

Michigan State travels 370 miles to this game, a short road trip.

Michigan State arrives with a 1-hour body clock shift.

Iowa won by 3 in a nail-biter.

Michigan State covered the spread, covering by a solid margin.

The total went Under by 5.5 points.

Does weather affect this game at Kinnick Stadium?

At 18.9°F, this is a cold-weather game. Cold conditions below 35°F historically compress scoring and reduce passing efficiency, favouring unders and run-heavy offences.

Precipitation chance is 80%, pointing to a wet-field game. High precip probability increases fumble risk and typically compresses both team totals.

Full conditions are shown in the data panel above. Forecast data sourced from WeatherAPI.com. Use the Line Value Calculator to apply a manual weather adjustment to your projected line.

How do Michigan State and Iowa compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favour Iowa (19.3) over Michigan State (5.3) by 14.0 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. Iowa brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.7). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input — cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Michigan State and Iowa?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Model & Methodology

Iowa won and Michigan State covered the spread.