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Week 13 •
Gerald J. Ford Stadium

Louisville6 @FINAL 38SMU

7-3 ACC Power rating: 15.6
7-3 ACC Power rating: 12.7

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
SMU -4.0
PM Implied
SMU -3.3
Blue Chip model
SMU -2.0
Edge
-2.0LOU
See details
◂ favors LOUfavors SMU ▸Market: SMU -4.0
LOU
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
SMU
SMU
SMU
no impact
no impact
2 LOU2 SMU4 LOU4 SMUModel: SMU -2.0

Betting information

Spread
SMU -4.0
Total
49.5
Odds implied score
LOU 22.8 – 26.8 SMU
Prediction markets
SMU 63% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

SMU defeated Louisville 38–6 in a dominant performance. SMU covered by 28.0; Game went Under by 5.5. The market closed at SMU -4.0 and the Blue Chip model made it SMU -2.0, an edge of 2.0 points toward Louisville.

What were the weather conditions for Louisville vs SMU?

At kickoff, conditions at Gerald J. Ford Stadium were Sunny, 61°F with winds of 7 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Louisville travels 722 miles to this game, a moderate road trip.

Louisville arrives with a 1-hour westward body clock shift, short of the two-zone westward threshold where travel starts to price.

SMU won by 32 in a dominant performance.

SMU covered the spread comfortably.

The total went Under by 5.5 points.

How do Louisville and SMU compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Louisville (15.6) over SMU (12.7) by 2.9 points on a neutral field. Despite playing at home, SMU faces a power rating deficit. Check whether the market spread accounts for this gap. SMU brings one of the stronger home environments in the FBS to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 3.8). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Louisville and SMU?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

SMU won and SMU covered the spread.

Conditions

as of November 22, 2025 Game-time

Sunny

61°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity63%
Wind7 mph NNE
Gusts8 mph
Snow chance0%
Wind map for Louisville at SMU: aerial view of Gerald J. Ford Stadium, wind from the NNE at 6.5 mph, gusting to 8.1 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 13
Kickoff (local)
11:00 AM CST
Venue
Gerald J. Ford Stadium
Capacity
32,000
Elevation
594 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

LouisvilleAway SMUHome
This week722 miles0 miles
Last weekHome gameBye week
Season total3,818 miles7,438 miles
Body clock12:0011:00
Rest7 days14 days

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