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Week 13 •
Arizona Stadium

Baylor17 @FINAL 41Arizona

5-5 Big 12 Power rating: 12.5
7-3 Big 12 Power rating: 10.1

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
ARIZ -6.5
PM Implied
ARIZ -4.8
Blue Chip model
ARIZ -0.8
Edge
-5.7BAY
See details
◂ favors BAYfavors ARIZ ▸Market: ARIZ -6.5
BAY
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
ARIZ
no impact
ARIZ
ARIZ
no impact
2 BAY2 ARIZ4 BAY4 ARIZ6 BAY6 ARIZModel: ARIZ -0.8

Betting information

Spread
ARIZ -6.5
Total
61.5
Odds implied score
BAY 27.5 – 34.0 ARIZ
Prediction markets
ARIZ 69% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

Arizona defeated Baylor 41–17 to secure a comfortable win. Arizona covered by 17.5; Game went Under by 3.5. The market closed at Arizona -6.5 and the Blue Chip model made it Arizona -0.8 - a gap of 5.7 points toward Baylor, of which 4.3 points were beyond the model's measured factors. That was an information gap - the market pricing something the model does not carry - rather than a measured edge.

What are the key factors for Baylor vs Arizona?

Arizona

Defensive Transformation in Second Half

Arizona's defense completely shut down Baylor's high-powered passing offense in the second half, holding them to just 40 yards passing and 3.6 yards per play. This defensive turnaround, forcing five straight turnovers including three in the fourth quarter, demonstrates the team's ability to make crucial halftime adjustments and could be a key factor in their upcoming rivalry game.

Fourth Quarter Dominance and Momentum

The Wildcats scored 20 points in just over four minutes during the fourth quarter, showcasing their ability to capitalize on momentum shifts and close out games decisively. This explosive finishing ability will be crucial against a ranked Arizona State team in their season finale.

Kedrick Reescano's Ground Game Impact

Reescano's three rushing touchdowns, including key scores in the third and fourth quarters, provided Arizona with a reliable red zone threat and helped control the game's tempo. His ability to find big holes and finish drives will be essential against Arizona State's defense.

Four-Game Winning Streak Momentum

Arizona extended their winning streak to four games, improving to 8-3 overall and 5-3 in Big 12 play. This sustained success and confidence boost heading into the rivalry game against ranked Arizona State could provide significant psychological advantages in what will likely be a high-stakes matchup.

Senior Leadership and Home Field Advantage

Senior safety Dalton Johnson's 18-tackle performance in his final home game exemplifies the veteran leadership that has driven Arizona's late-season surge. However, they'll need to replicate this intensity on the road against Arizona State without the benefit of home crowd support.

What were the weather conditions for Baylor vs Arizona?

At kickoff, conditions at Arizona Stadium were Thundery outbreaks possible, 60°F with winds of 1 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Baylor travels 814 miles to this game, a significant road trip.

Baylor arrives with a 1-hour westward body clock shift, short of the two-zone westward threshold where travel starts to price.

Arizona won by 24 to secure a comfortable win.

Arizona covered the spread comfortably.

The total went Under by 3.5 points.

How do Baylor and Arizona compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Baylor (12.5) over Arizona (10.1) by 2.4 points on a neutral field. Despite playing at home, Arizona faces a power rating deficit. Check whether the market spread accounts for this gap. Arizona brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.4). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Baylor and Arizona?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

Arizona won and Arizona covered the spread.

Conditions

as of November 22, 2025 Game-time

Thundery outbreaks possible

60°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity44%
Wind1 mph SSW
Gusts2 mph
Snow chance0%
Wind map for Baylor at Arizona: aerial view of Arizona Stadium, wind from the SSW at 1.1 mph, gusting to 1.8 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 13
Kickoff (local)
11:00 AM MST
Venue
Arizona Stadium
Capacity
50,782
Elevation
2,438 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

BaylorAway ArizonaHome
This week814 miles0 miles
Last weekHome game3,109 miles
Season total3,548 miles8,571 miles
Body clock12:0011:00
Rest6 days7 days

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