Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Amon G. Carter StadiumNeutral site

Rice10 @FINAL 41Texas State , Postseason, Jan 2, 2026

5-7 American Power rating: -12.8
6-6 Sun Belt Power rating: -0.7

How did the line hold up?

Market line
TXST -19.5
PM Implied
Not yet available
Blue Chip model
TXST -12.1
Edge
-7.4RICE
See details
◂ favors RICEfavors TXST ▸Market: TXST -19.5
12.1 › TXST
Adjust the power ratings by team
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
neutral
no impact
no impact
no impact
no impact
5 RICE5 TXSTModel: TXST -12.1

Betting information

Spread
TXST -19.5
Total
55.5
Odds implied score
RICE 18.0 – 37.5 TXST

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

Texas State defeated Rice 41–10 in a dominant performance. Texas State covered by 11.5; Game went Under by 4.5. The market closed at Texas State -19.5 and the Blue Chip model made it Texas State -12.1 - a gap of 7.4 points toward Rice, of which 7.4 points were beyond the model's measured factors. That was an information gap - the market pricing something the model does not carry - rather than a measured edge.

What were the weather conditions for Rice vs Texas State?

At kickoff, conditions at Amon G. Carter Stadium were Clear, 73°F with winds of 8 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Rice travels 237 miles to this game, a short road trip.

The trip crosses none of the distance or time-zone thresholds that have measured a price, so travel is not a factor here.

Texas State won by 31 in a dominant performance.

Texas State covered the spread by a solid margin.

The total went Under by 4.5 points.

How do Rice and Texas State compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Texas State (-0.7) over Rice (-12.8) by 12.1 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. Neither team has a home-field advantage here, so the neutral-field differential above is already the venue-adjusted read.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Sources

Weather

Texas State won and Texas State covered the spread.

Conditions

as of January 2, 2026 Game-time

Clear

73°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity45%
Wind8 mph NNW
Gusts12 mph
Snow chance0%
Wind map for Rice at Texas State: aerial view of Amon G. Carter Stadium, wind from the NNW at 7.6 mph, gusting to 11.6 mph

Quick facts

Week
Postseason
Kickoff (local)
12:00 PM CST
Venue
Amon G. Carter Stadium
Capacity
47,000
Elevation
646 ft
Surface
Grass

Travel and rest

Measure RiceAway Texas StateHome
This week237 miles197 miles
Last weekBye weekBye week
Season total6,980 miles7,062 miles
Body clock12:0012:00
Rest33 days34 days