Kinder's Texas Bowl
NRG StadiumNeutral siteIndoor

LSU35 @FINAL 38Houston , Postseason, Dec 28, 2025

7-5 SEC Power rating: 17.6
9-3 Big 12 Power rating: 8.9

How did the line hold up?

Market line
HOU -1.5
PM Implied
HOU -0.5
Blue Chip model
LSU -8.7
Edge
-10.2LSU
See details
◂ favors LSUfavors HOU ▸Market: HOU -1.5
LSU
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5 LSU5 HOU10 LSU10 HOUModel: LSU -8.7

Betting information

Spread
HOU -1.5
Total
43.5
Odds implied score
LSU 21.0 – 22.5 HOU
Prediction markets
HOU 52% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

Houston defeated LSU 38–35 in a nail-biter. Houston covered by 1.5; Game went Over by 29.5. The market closed at Houston -1.5 and the Blue Chip model made it LSU -8.7 - a gap of 10.2 points toward LSU, of which 10.2 points were beyond the model's measured factors. That was an information gap - the market pricing something the model does not carry - rather than a measured edge. Blue Chip Analytics had rated LSU 8.7 points stronger on a neutral field.

What were the weather conditions for LSU vs Houston?

This game was played indoors at NRG Stadium in a climate-controlled environment. Weather was not a factor.

What happened in the game?

LSU travels 258 miles to this game, a short road trip.

The trip crosses none of the distance or time-zone thresholds that have measured a price, so travel is not a factor here.

Houston won by 3 in a nail-biter.

Houston covered the spread narrowly.

The total went Over by 29.5 points.

How do LSU and Houston compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor LSU (17.6) over Houston (8.9) by 8.7 points on a neutral field. Houston faces a power rating deficit at a neutral venue. Check whether the market spread accounts for this gap. Neither team has a home-field advantage here, so the neutral-field differential above is already the venue-adjusted read.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Sources

Weather

Houston won and Houston covered the spread.

Conditions

Indoor, climate controlled

~72°F

NRG Stadium is a domed venue. Wind, precipitation and temperature are not factors in this game.

Wind map for LSU at Houston: aerial view of NRG Stadium

Quick facts

Week
Postseason
Kickoff (local)
08:15 PM CST
Venue
NRG Stadium
Capacity
80,109
Elevation
49 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

Measure LSUAway HoustonHome
This week258 miles4 miles
Last weekBye weekBye week
Season total4,469 miles8,655 miles
Body clock20:1520:15
Rest29 days29 days