College Football Playoff First Round Game
Memorial Stadium (Norman, OK)Neutral site

Alabama34 @FINAL 24Oklahoma , Postseason, Dec 20, 2025

10-3 SEC Power rating: 30.2
10-2 SEC Power rating: 22.2

How did the line hold up?

Market line
OU -1.5
PM Implied
OU -0.6
Blue Chip model
ALA -7.5
Edge
-9.0ALA
See details
◂ favors ALAfavors OU ▸Market: OU -1.5
ALA
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neutral
no impact
no impact
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OU
5 ALA5 OU10 ALA10 OUModel: ALA -7.5

Betting information

Spread
OU -1.5
Total
42.5
Odds implied score
ALA 20.5 – 22.0 OU
Prediction markets
OU 53% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

Alabama defeated Oklahoma 34–24 in a double-digit victory. Alabama covered by 11.5; Game went Over by 15.5. The market closed at Oklahoma -1.5 and the Blue Chip model made it Alabama -7.5 - a gap of 9.0 points toward Alabama, of which 8.5 points were beyond the model's measured factors. That was an information gap - the market pricing something the model does not carry - rather than a measured edge.

What were the weather conditions for Alabama vs Oklahoma?

At kickoff, conditions at Memorial Stadium (Norman, OK) were Clear, 43°F, wind chill 34°F with winds of 22 mph. Wind of 22 mph is enough to matter to the total: the market has historically taken about 1.7 points off the number in this band. It is worth re-checking closer to kickoff. Gusts reaching 38 mph add variance to the kicking and passing game. Games with gusts at or above 30 mph have seen the total move down by about 1.4 points. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Alabama travels 583 miles to this game, a moderate road trip.

The trip crosses none of the distance or time-zone thresholds that have measured a price, so travel is not a factor here.

Alabama won by 10 in a double-digit victory.

Alabama covered the spread by a solid margin.

The total went Over by 15.5 points.

How do Alabama and Oklahoma compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Alabama (30.2) over Oklahoma (22.2) by 8.0 points on a neutral field. Oklahoma faces a power rating deficit at a neutral venue. Check whether the market spread accounts for this gap. Neither team has a home-field advantage here, so the neutral-field differential above is already the venue-adjusted read.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Sources

Weather

Alabama won and Alabama covered the spread.

Conditions

as of December 20, 2025 Game-time

Clear

43°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity53%
Wind22 mph S
Gusts38 mph
Wind chill34°F
Snow chance0%
Wind map for Alabama at Oklahoma: aerial view of Memorial Stadium (Norman, OK), wind from the S at 21.9 mph, gusting to 38.3 mph

Quick facts

Week
Postseason
Kickoff (local)
07:00 PM CST
Venue
Memorial Stadium (Norman, OK)
Capacity
80,126
Elevation
1,194 ft
Surface
Grass

Travel and rest

Measure AlabamaAway OklahomaHome
This week583 miles0 miles
Last weekBye weekBye week
Season total3,955 miles7,435 miles
Body clock19:0019:00
Rest14 days21 days