26 Final 23 38 Final 61 13 Final 20 30 Final 24 34 Final 6 31 Final 34 34 Final 41 16 Final 35 19 Final 16 38 Final 35 14 Final 28 28 Final 31 38 Final 45 14 Final 42 24 Final 20 13 Final 6 20 Final 59 49 Final 51 23 Final 52 24 Final 37 38 Final 17 24 Final 25 28 Final 27 20 Final 35 10 Final 21 24 Final 27 56 Final 21 31 Final 39 24 Final 31 20 Final 31 49 Final 39 10 Final 13 23 Final 15 10 Final 28 17 Final 34 49 Final 27 17 Final 28 20 Final 24 21 Final 14 13 Final 28 31 Final 35 0 Final 26 31 Final 10 49 Final 56 20 Final 16 24 Final 57 32 Final 38 3 Final 39 17 Final 20 7 Final 24 27 Final 34 17 Final 34 31 Final 30 42 Final 19 @ @
Valero Alamo Bowl •
AlamodomeNeutral siteIndoor

USC27 @FINAL 30TCU

9-3 Big Ten Power rating: 23.5
8-4 Big 12 Power rating: 15.9

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
USC -4.5
PM Implied
USC -3.9
Blue Chip model
USC -7.3
Edge
-2.8USC
See details
◂ favors USCfavors TCU ▸Market: USC -4.5
‹ 7.6 USC
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
neutral
no impact
TCU
no impact
no impact
1 USC1 TCU2 USC2 TCU3 USC3 TCUModel: USC -7.3

Betting information

Spread
USC -4.5
Total
56.5
Odds implied score
USC 30.5 – 26.0 TCU
Prediction markets
USC 66% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

TCU defeated USC 30–27 in a nail-biter. TCU covered by 7.5; Game went Over by 0.5. The market closed at USC -4.5 and the Blue Chip model made it USC -7.3 - a gap of 2.8 points toward USC, of which 2.5 points were beyond the model's measured factors. That was an information gap - the market pricing something the model does not carry - rather than a measured edge. Blue Chip Analytics had rated USC 7.6 points stronger on a neutral field.

What were the weather conditions for USC vs TCU?

This game was played indoors at Alamodome in a climate-controlled environment. Weather was not a factor.

What happened in the game?

USC travels 1,207 miles to this game, a significant road trip.

USC arrives with a 2-hour eastward body clock shift, short of the two-zone westward threshold where travel starts to price.

TCU won by 3 in a nail-biter.

TCU covered the spread by a solid margin.

The total went Over by 0.5 points.

How do USC and TCU compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor USC (23.5) over TCU (15.9) by 7.6 points on a neutral field. TCU faces a power rating deficit at a neutral venue. Check whether the market spread accounts for this gap. Neither team has a home-field advantage here, so the neutral-field differential above is already the venue-adjusted read.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on USC and TCU?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

TCU won and TCU covered the spread.

Conditions

Indoor, climate controlled

~72°F

Alamodome is a domed venue. Wind, precipitation and temperature are not factors in this game.

Wind map for USC at TCU: aerial view of Alamodome

Quick facts

Week
Postseason
Kickoff (local)
08:00 PM CST
Venue
Alamodome
Capacity
64,000
Elevation
738 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

USCAway TCUHome
This week1,207 miles236 miles
Last weekBye weekBye week
Season total15,827 miles9,503 miles
Body clock18:0020:00
Rest31 days32 days

Other games this week