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Isleta New Mexico Bowl •
University Stadium (NM)Neutral site

North Texas49 @FINAL 47San Diego State

11-2 American Power rating: 8.5
9-3 MW Power rating: 5.3

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
UNT -7.5
PM Implied
UNT -5.9
Blue Chip model
UNT -3.2
Edge
+4.3SDSU
See details
◂ favors UNTfavors SDSU ▸Market: UNT -7.5
UNT
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
neutral
no impact
no impact
no impact
no impact
2 UNT2 SDSU4 UNT4 SDSUModel: UNT -3.2

Betting information

Spread
UNT -7.5
Total
54.5
Odds implied score
UNT 31.0 – 23.5 SDSU
Prediction markets
UNT 72% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

North Texas defeated San Diego State 49–47 in a nail-biter. San Diego State covered by 5.5; Game went Over by 41.5. The market closed at North Texas -7.5 and the Blue Chip model made it North Texas -3.2 - a gap of 4.3 points toward San Diego State, of which 4.3 points were beyond the model's measured factors. That was an information gap - the market pricing something the model does not carry - rather than a measured edge.

What were the weather conditions for North Texas vs San Diego State?

At kickoff, conditions at University Stadium (NM) were Cloudy, 44°F, wind chill 41°F with winds of 8 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

North Texas travels 557 miles to this game, a moderate road trip.

North Texas arrives with a 1-hour westward body clock shift, short of the two-zone westward threshold where travel starts to price.

North Texas won by 2 in a nail-biter.

San Diego State covered the spread.

The total went Over by 41.5 points.

How do North Texas and San Diego State compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor North Texas (8.5) over San Diego State (5.3) by 3.2 points on a neutral field. San Diego State faces a power rating deficit at a neutral venue. Check whether the market spread accounts for this gap. Neither team has a home-field advantage here, so the neutral-field differential above is already the venue-adjusted read.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on North Texas and San Diego State?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

North Texas won and San Diego State covered the spread.

Conditions

as of December 27, 2025 Game-time

Cloudy

44°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity53%
Wind8 mph W
Gusts13 mph
Wind chill41°F
Snow chance0%
Wind map for North Texas at San Diego State: aerial view of University Stadium (NM), wind from the W at 7.6 mph, gusting to 12.8 mph

Quick facts

Week
Postseason
Kickoff (local)
03:45 PM MST
Venue
University Stadium (NM)
Capacity
39,224
Elevation
5,121 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

North TexasAway San Diego StateHome
This week557 miles623 miles
Last weekBye weekBye week
Season total9,682 miles13,976 miles
Body clock16:4514:45
Rest21 days29 days

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