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Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl •
Arizona StadiumNeutral site

Miami (OH)3 @FINAL 18Fresno State

7-6 MAC Power rating: -2.0
8-4 MW Power rating: -2.2

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
FRES -5.5
PM Implied
FRES -3.6
Blue Chip model
FRES -0.7
Edge
-4.8M-OH
See details
◂ favors M-OHfavors FRES ▸Market: FRES -5.5
M-OH
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
neutral
no impact
FRES
no impact
no impact
2 M-OH2 FRES4 M-OH4 FRESModel: FRES -0.7

Betting information

Spread
FRES -5.5
Total
40.5
Odds implied score
M-OH 17.5 – 23.0 FRES
Prediction markets
FRES 64% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

Fresno State defeated Miami (OH) 18–3 in a double-digit victory. Fresno State covered by 9.5; Game went Under by 19.5. The market closed at Fresno State -5.5 and the Blue Chip model made it Fresno State -0.7 - a gap of 4.8 points toward Miami (OH), of which 4.2 points were beyond the model's measured factors. That was an information gap - the market pricing something the model does not carry - rather than a measured edge.

What were the weather conditions for Miami (OH) vs Fresno State?

At kickoff, conditions at Arizona Stadium were Partly cloudy, 52°F with winds of 5 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Miami (OH) travels 1,548 miles to this game, a cross-country trip.

That is a westward shift of 2 time zones, the one travel pattern Blue Chip has measured as carrying a consistent price: about 0.9 points, with the distance burden already inside it.

Fresno State won by 15 in a double-digit victory.

Fresno State covered the spread by a solid margin.

The total went Under by 19.5 points.

How do Miami (OH) and Fresno State compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings rate Miami (OH) (-2.0) and Fresno State (-2.2) as essentially equal on a neutral field. In this range, home field, travel, rest, and weather context carry more weight than the raw rating differential. Neither team has a home-field advantage here, so the neutral-field differential above is already the venue-adjusted read.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Miami (OH) and Fresno State?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

Fresno State won and Fresno State covered the spread.

Conditions

as of December 27, 2025 Game-time

Partly cloudy

52°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity65%
Wind5 mph NW
Gusts8 mph
Snow chance0%
Wind map for Miami (OH) at Fresno State: aerial view of Arizona Stadium, wind from the NW at 5.1 mph, gusting to 7.6 mph

Quick facts

Week
Postseason
Kickoff (local)
02:30 PM MST
Venue
Arizona Stadium
Capacity
50,782
Elevation
2,438 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

Miami (OH)Away Fresno StateHome
This week1,548 miles593 miles
Last weekBye weekBye week
Season total5,772 miles12,365 miles
Body clock16:3013:30
Rest21 days27 days

Other games this week