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Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl •
Raymond James StadiumNeutral site

Memphis7 @FINAL 31NC State

8-4 American Power rating: 11.4
7-5 ACC Power rating: 8.3

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
NCSU -3.5
PM Implied
NCSU -2.6
Blue Chip model
MEM -2.9
Edge
-6.3MEM
See details
◂ favors MEMfavors NCSU ▸Market: NCSU -3.5
MEM
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
neutral
no impact
no impact
no impact
NCSU
2 MEM2 NCSU4 MEM4 NCSU6 MEM6 NCSUModel: MEM -2.9

Betting information

Spread
NCSU -3.5
Total
56.5
Odds implied score
MEM 26.5 – 30.0 NCSU
Prediction markets
NCSU 61% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

NC State defeated Memphis 31–7 to secure a comfortable win. NC State covered by 20.5; Game went Under by 18.5. The market closed at NC State -3.5 and the Blue Chip model made it Memphis -2.9 - a gap of 6.3 points toward Memphis, of which 6.1 points were beyond the model's measured factors. That was an information gap - the market pricing something the model does not carry - rather than a measured edge. Blue Chip Analytics had rated Memphis 3.1 points stronger on a neutral field.

What were the weather conditions for Memphis vs NC State?

At kickoff, conditions at Raymond James Stadium were Overcast, 70°F with winds of 13 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Memphis travels 660 miles to this game, a moderate road trip.

Memphis arrives with a 1-hour eastward body clock shift, short of the two-zone westward threshold where travel starts to price.

NC State won by 24 to secure a comfortable win.

NC State covered the spread comfortably.

The total went Under by 18.5 points.

How do Memphis and NC State compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Memphis (11.4) over NC State (8.3) by 3.1 points on a neutral field. NC State faces a power rating deficit at a neutral venue. Check whether the market spread accounts for this gap. Neither team has a home-field advantage here, so the neutral-field differential above is already the venue-adjusted read.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Memphis and NC State?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

NC State won and NC State covered the spread.

Conditions

as of December 19, 2025 Game-time

Overcast

70°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity85%
Wind13 mph NW
Gusts18 mph
Snow chance0%
Wind map for Memphis at NC State: aerial view of Raymond James Stadium, wind from the NW at 12.5 mph, gusting to 17.7 mph

Quick facts

Week
Postseason
Kickoff (local)
02:30 PM EST
Venue
Raymond James Stadium
Capacity
69,218
Elevation
72 ft
Surface
Unknown

Travel and rest

MemphisAway NC StateHome
This week660 miles583 miles
Last weekBye weekBye week
Season total6,488 miles3,970 miles
Body clock13:3014:30
Rest21 days19 days

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