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Cramton BowlNeutral site

Troy13 @FINAL 17Jacksonville State , Postseason, Dec 17, 2025

8-5 Sun Belt Power rating: -2.0
8-5 CUSA Power rating: -6.5

How did the line hold up?

Market line
JXST -3.5
PM Implied
JXST -2.1
Blue Chip model
TROY -4.5
Edge
-8.0TROY
See details
◂ favors TROYfavors JXST ▸Market: JXST -3.5
TROY
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5 TROY5 JXSTModel: TROY -4.5

Betting information

Spread
JXST -3.5
Total
47.5
Odds implied score
TROY 22.0 – 25.5 JXST
Prediction markets
JXST 59% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

Jacksonville State defeated Troy 17–13 in a closely contested finish. Jacksonville State covered by 0.5; Game went Under by 17.5. The market closed at Jacksonville State -3.5 and the Blue Chip model made it Troy -4.5 - a gap of 8.0 points toward Troy, of which 8.0 points were beyond the model's measured factors. That was an information gap - the market pricing something the model does not carry - rather than a measured edge. Blue Chip Analytics had rated Troy 4.5 points stronger on a neutral field.

What were the weather conditions for Troy vs Jacksonville State?

At kickoff, conditions at Cramton Bowl were Overcast, 41°F, wind chill 39°F with winds of 1 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Troy travels 45 miles to this game, a short road trip.

The trip crosses none of the distance or time-zone thresholds that have measured a price, so travel is not a factor here.

Jacksonville State won by 4 in a closely contested finish.

Jacksonville State covered the spread narrowly.

The total went Under by 17.5 points.

How do Troy and Jacksonville State compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Troy (-2.0) over Jacksonville State (-6.5) by 4.5 points on a neutral field. Jacksonville State faces a power rating deficit at a neutral venue. Check whether the market spread accounts for this gap. Neither team has a home-field advantage here, so the neutral-field differential above is already the venue-adjusted read.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Sources

Weather

Jacksonville State won and Jacksonville State covered the spread.

Conditions

as of December 17, 2025 Game-time

Overcast

41°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity84%
Wind1 mph SSE
Gusts3 mph
Wind chill39°F
Snow chance0%
Wind map for Troy at Jacksonville State: aerial view of Cramton Bowl, wind from the SSE at 1.3 mph, gusting to 2.9 mph

Quick facts

Week
Postseason
Kickoff (local)
08:00 PM CST
Venue
Cramton Bowl
Capacity
21,000
Elevation
266 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

Measure TroyAway Jacksonville StateHome
This week45 miles104 miles
Last weekBye weekBye week
Season total7,410 miles7,303 miles
Body clock20:0020:00
Rest11 days11 days