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Week 15 •
Albertsons Stadium

UNLV21 @FINAL 38Boise State

10-2 MW Power rating: -1.2
8-4 MW Power rating: 11.5

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
BOIS -6.0
PM Implied
Not yet available
Blue Chip model
BOIS -15.8
Edge
+9.8BOIS
See details
◂ favors UNLVfavors BOIS ▸Market: BOIS -6.0
12.7 › BOIS
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
BOIS
BOIS
no impact
no impact
no impact
5 UNLV5 BOIS10 UNLV10 BOISModel: BOIS -15.8

Betting information

Spread
BOIS -6.0
Total
59.5
Odds implied score
UNLV 26.8 – 32.8 BOIS

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

Boise State defeated UNLV 38–21 to secure a comfortable win. Boise State covered by 11.0; Game went Under by 0.5. The market closed at Boise State -6.0 and the Blue Chip model made it Boise State -15.8 - a gap of 9.8 points toward Boise State, of which 8.8 points were beyond the model's measured factors. That was an information gap - the market pricing something the model does not carry - rather than a measured edge.

What were the weather conditions for UNLV vs Boise State?

At kickoff, conditions at Albertsons Stadium were Moderate or heavy rain shower, 44°F, wind chill 38°F with winds of 1 mph. A 100% chance of rain with around 0.11 inches expected points to a genuinely wet field. Ball security and the kicking game are the exposures. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

UNLV travels 521 miles to this game, a moderate road trip.

UNLV arrives with a 1-hour eastward body clock shift, short of the two-zone westward threshold where travel starts to price.

Boise State won by 17 to secure a comfortable win.

Boise State covered the spread by a solid margin.

The total went Under by 0.5 points.

How do UNLV and Boise State compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Boise State (11.5) over UNLV (-1.2) by 12.7 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. Boise State brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.9). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on UNLV and Boise State?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

Boise State won and Boise State covered the spread.

Conditions

as of December 6, 2025 Game-time

Moderate or heavy rain shower

44°F

Rain100%
Precip0.11"
Humidity95%
Wind1 mph W
Gusts2 mph
Wind chill38°F
Snow chance0%
Wind map for UNLV at Boise State: aerial view of Albertsons Stadium, wind from the W at 1.1 mph, gusting to 2 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 15
Kickoff (local)
06:00 PM MST
Venue
Albertsons Stadium
Capacity
36,387
Elevation
2,723 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

UNLVAway Boise StateHome
This week521 miles0 miles
Last week696 miles514 miles
Season total10,589 miles11,385 miles
Body clock17:0018:00
Rest6 days8 days

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