Illinois State defeated North Dakota State 29–28 in a nail-biter. Blue Chip Analytics had rated North Dakota State 18.9 points stronger on a neutral field.
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Positive adjustment = favours home team
This game was played indoors at Fargodome in a climate-controlled environment. Weather was not a factor.
~72°F
Illinois State travels 589 miles to this game, a moderate road trip.
Illinois State won by 1 in a nail-biter.
At 13.8°F, this is an extreme cold-weather game. Conditions this cold significantly compress scoring and reduce passing efficiency.
Full conditions are shown in the data panel above. Forecast data sourced from WeatherAPI.com. Use the Line Value Calculator to apply a manual weather adjustment to your projected line.
Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favour North Dakota State (1.0) over Illinois State (-17.9) by 18.9 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. North Dakota State brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.5). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.
Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.
Illinois State won this game.
