Week 11 • November 14, 2026, 05:00 AM UTC
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Big 12
Power Rank: 4.4
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Big 12
Power Rank: 1.5

By · Last updated

Cincinnati (power rating: 4.4) carries a 2.9-point edge over Iowa State (1.5) on a neutral field per Blue Chip Analytics. Iowa State's home field (Blue Chip HFA: 2.7) narrows that gap at Jack Trice Stadium. See Line Value below.

General Information

Week: Week 11
Kick Off (at stadium): 11:00 PM CST
Stadium: Jack Trice Stadium
Capacity: 61,500
Elevation: 915 ft
HFA Rating: 2.7
Playing Surface: Grass

Betting Information

Spread None
Total (O/U) -
Odds Implied Score -
Power Rank Implied Line Cincinnati -2.9

Line Value Calculator

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Cincinnati
Iowa State
Home field — Jack Trice Stadium
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Travel impact

Positive adjustment = favours home team

Does weather affect Cincinnati vs Iowa State at Jack Trice Stadium?

Game-time forecast at Jack Trice Stadium shows Partly Cloudy — 74.5°F, Feels Like 78.8°F with winds of 6.5 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. The weather adjustment has been pre-filled in the Line Value Calculator above — adjust manually if conditions change before kick-off.

Weather Conditions

Forecast for: July 05, 2026
Partly Cloudy

Partly Cloudy

74.5°F

Feels Like: 78.8°F
Wind: 6.5 mph WNW
Gusts: 11.4 mph
Precipitation: 0.0"
Humidity: 94%
Rain Chance: 22%
Snow Chance: 0%

Travel & Rest

Cincinnati (Away)

This Week: 519.1 miles
Last Week: 1790.0 miles
Season Total: 5912.0 miles
Body Clock Time: 00:00
Rest Days: 7

Iowa State (Home)

This Week: 0.0 miles
Last Week: 1492.3 miles
Season Total: 5938.2 miles
Body Clock Time: 23:00
Rest Days: 7

What are the key factors for Cincinnati vs Iowa State?

Cincinnati: Key Factors

New quarterback and offensive identity

JC French IV takes over at QB after Brendan Sorsby's departure. The offense will lean heavily on the run game with Zion Johnson, Gi'Bran Payne, and Zylan Perry, using play-action passes. French's comfort in this system is critical, especially against a Boston College defense that will likely test his decision-making early.

Defensive scheme change and turnover potential

First-year DC Nate Woody's pressure-based 3-3-5 scheme aims to force more turnovers after last season's low numbers. Key additions like Josh Hough, Chidera Otutu, and Filip Maciorowski should create chaos, but the unit must gel quickly against a Boston College offense that may try to exploit early miscommunications.

Home-field advantage and weather factors

Cincinnati opens at home with a 2.5-point HFA boost. The forecast calls for partly cloudy skies, 64°F, and 13 mph wind, which could affect passing accuracy and kicking. The Bearcats' strong running game and experienced offensive line may benefit from these conditions, while the defense's pass rush could be aided by the wind.

Rebuilt skill positions and depth concerns

The wide receiver room is almost entirely new, with Isaiah Johnson as the primary deep threat. JV Gibson, Larenzo Fenner, and Cade Wolford must step up. If the running game stalls or French faces pressure, the passing game's lack of chemistry could be a liability against Boston College's secondary.

Special teams stability as a hidden edge

Returning kicker Stephen Rusnak and punter Max Fletcher provide reliability in a game that could be close. Isaiah Johnson's speed on returns adds a big-play threat. In windy conditions, field position and kicking accuracy become even more important, giving Cincinnati a potential advantage.

Iowa State: Key Factors

Massive roster turnover creates cohesion questions

Iowa State lost over 50 players to the portal, including 16 starters and 24 who followed the former coach to Penn State. The team added more than 45 transfers, meaning nearly the entire roster is new. This lack of continuity could lead to early-season execution issues, especially on offense where the line is almost entirely rebuilt and the quarterback is a newcomer.

New offensive system relies on downhill run and play-action

Offensive coordinator Tyler Roehl, returning from the Detroit Lions, is expected to emphasize downhill rushing and play-action passing. The running back duo of Aiden Flora and MAC Freshman of the Year Cameron Pettaway provides a strong foundation, but the rebuilt offensive line must gel quickly for the scheme to work effectively.

Defense retains key pieces but loses critical safety

The defense returns several contributors like DL Zaimir Hawk and Jace J. Gilbert, LB Carson Willich, and DBs David Coffey and Drew Surges. However, the spring ACL injury to Toledo transfer safety Braden Awls is a significant blow, forcing the staff to develop replacements during the summer. The unit's depth and chemistry will be tested early.

Strong special teams provide a reliable edge

Kicker Kyle Konrardy is one of the nation's best, and the return game features explosive threats in Pettaway (33.0-yard kickoff return average) and Flora (26.1-yard punt return average with a touchdown). In a game where the offense may need time to click, special teams could provide crucial field position and scoring.

Home opener with favorable weather but strong wind

Iowa State hosts Southeast Missouri State at home with a 2.7-point home-field advantage. The forecast calls for partly cloudy skies at 69°F but with 23 mph wind, which could affect passing and kicking. The Cyclones' run-heavy offensive approach may be well-suited to these conditions, while the defense must account for wind on deep throws.

What do the matchup numbers say?

Cincinnati travels 519 miles to this game, a moderate road trip.

Cincinnati arrives with a 1-hour body clock shift.

How do Cincinnati and Iowa State compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favour Cincinnati (4.4) over Iowa State (1.5) by 2.9 points on a neutral field. Despite playing at home, Iowa State faces a power rating deficit. Check whether the market spread accounts for this gap. Iowa State brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.7). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input — cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Sources

Weather

Blue Chip Analytics rates Cincinnati as the stronger team by 2.9 points on a neutral field; apply HFA and travel context before finalising a line read.