Week 11 of the 2026 season features 67 FBS games. North Dakota State carries the week's biggest travel burden at 3,804 miles more than its opponent. Hawai'i posts the week's top HFA at 3.8 points. The top pick is Tennessee (-11.4TENN): the model sees strong value on Tennessee, 11.4 points off the book line. Analysts focused on travel and venue angles will find the ranked sections below most actionable; casual viewers can use the at-a-glance table to scan results. See detailed weather forecasts for every game this week.
Teams ranked by how much further they traveled than their opponent. At a neutral site both teams travel, so the gap between them is the burden - not the raw trip. Body-clock offset and rest-day differential compound it.
Games ranked by combined wind, temperature, and precipitation impact. Thresholds: sustained wind ≥ 15 mph, gusts ≥ 25 mph, temp ≤ 32°F or ≥ 95°F, precipitation chance ≥ 60%.
Home teams ranked by stadium HFA rating. Higher values reflect stronger historical home performance at that venue. Venues above 4,000 ft are flagged for altitude disadvantage.
The side the Blue Chip model favors against the bookmaker's spread, strongest disagreement first; a game is listed only where the model line and the book line differ by at least 1 point. These are model-versus-spread leans, not a service: no record is kept or published, and the line you can get may differ.
Teams in this week's games with a cover rate of ≥60% (hot) or ≤40% (cold) ATS this season, minimum 4 games with a decided ATS result.
Each ranked section draws from the same enriched data that powers our per-game pages. Travel distances are calculated as straight-line (great-circle) distances from each team's home market to the game stadium. Body-clock offset is the signed time-zone difference the away team crosses, or both teams in case of neutral site games. Rest-day differential is the difference in days since each team last played. Weather scoring compounds wind, temperature, and precipitation against fixed thresholds, dome stadiums are excluded as weather is irrelevant indoors, see our Weather tool for the full methodology.
HFA ratings come from our Home Field Advantage tool, which estimates the per-venue point value based on historical margin-of-victory data. Stadiums above 4,000 ft are flagged; altitude creates a documented visiting-team disadvantage. Power ratings are from the Blue Chip power-rating model. A pick is the side the model favors where its line and the market line differ by at least 1 point, graded on the same ladder the per-game pages use.
The Vegas versus Prediction Markets section compares the bookmaker's spread with the spread implied by the Kalshi prediction market - converted from its win probability through a fixed logistic scale - with no model involved. The Picks section sets the Blue Chip model line against the bookmaker line, with the Kalshi-implied line beneath each pick as a second read. ATS records are season-to-date.
Week 11 of the 2026 FBS season features 67 games tracked by Blue Chip Analytics. The full schedule, lines, and totals are listed in the game table on this page.
Teams are ranked by how much further they traveled than their opponent, measured as straight-line distance from each home market to the game stadium. At a home game the host travels nothing, so this is simply the visitor's trip; at a neutral site both teams travel and the gap between them is the burden. Body-clock offset (time-zone hours crossed) is listed alongside distance as a compound fatigue indicator.
Games are flagged when the kickoff-hour forecast meets at least one of: sustained wind ≥ 15 mph, gusts ≥ 25 mph, temperature ≤ 32°F or ≥ 95°F, or a precipitation chance ≥ 60%. Scores compound across all factors: a cold and windy game ranks higher than a mildly breezy one. Weeks with no game past these thresholds show no weather section at all.
Blue Chip's HFA rating estimates the point value of playing at home at a specific stadium, based on historical margin-of-victory data. A rating of 3.0 means the home team historically performs about 3 points better at that venue than their power ratings alone would predict.
It ranks games by how far the bookmaker's spread sits from the spread implied by the Kalshi prediction market. Kalshi's win probability is converted to a spread through a fixed logistic scale, and no model is involved - it is one market against another. A wide gap is a directional flag, not a betting recommendation.
Each pick is the side the Blue Chip model favors against the bookmaker's spread, listed only where the model line and the book line differ by at least 1 point and ranked by the size of that gap, graded on the same ladder the per-game pages use. The Kalshi-implied line sits beneath each as a second market read. These are model-versus-spread leans, not a service: no record is kept or published, and the line you can get may differ.
Teams are flagged when at least 4 of their games this season have produced a decided ATS result and their cover rate is ≥60% (hot) or ≤40% (cold). Records are season-to-date and, especially early on, rest on small samples - a hot or cold streak here is context to note, not a demonstrated edge.
Week 11 of the 2026 season features 67 FBS games; the ranked sections above surface the travel, weather, HFA, market-vs-market and ATS-record angles, and the picks where the model disagrees with the spread.
.png)
