Week 11 •
FBC Mortgage Stadium

Arizona State @ UCF , Week 11, Nov 14, 2026

2-2 Big 12 Power rating: 5.7
3-2 Big 12 Power rating: 6.0

Is there value in the Arizona State vs UCF line?

Market line
None posted
PM Implied
Not yet available
Blue Chip model
UCF -3.9
Edge
No line posted
See details
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1 ASU1 UCF2 ASU2 UCF3 ASU3 UCFModel: UCF -3.9

UCF (power rating: 6.0) and Arizona State (5.7) are rated essentially even on a neutral field by Blue Chip Analytics. UCF's home field advantage (Blue Chip HFA: 3.2) is the primary differentiator at FBC Mortgage Stadium. Beyond home field, the model charges Arizona State's long trip, with a slighter reading for the conditions. The weather component is provisional until the game-time reading is confirmed. Adjust the factors in the tool above to test your own numbers.

Does weather affect Arizona State vs UCF at FBC Mortgage Stadium?

The latest reading for FBC Mortgage Stadium shows Partly Cloudy, 78°F with winds of 7 mph. Gusts reaching 21 mph add variance to the kicking and passing game. Games with gusts at or above 30 mph have seen the total move down by about 1.4 points. It was taken before the ~10-day forecast window opened, so it describes the furthest hour the forecast reached rather than kickoff itself, and it is replaced once the game comes inside the window. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

How do Arizona State and UCF compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings rate Arizona State (5.7) and UCF (6.0) as essentially equal on a neutral field. In this range, home field, travel, rest, and weather context carry more weight than the raw rating differential. UCF brings one of the stronger home environments in the FBS to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 3.2). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Sources

Weather

Blue Chip makes this UCF -3.9. No market line is posted yet for comparison.

Conditions

as of October 10, 2026 Preliminary

Partly Cloudy

78°F

Rain17%
Precip0.00"
Humidity89%
Wind7 mph SE
Gusts21 mph
Snow chance0%
Wind map for Arizona State at UCF: aerial view of FBC Mortgage Stadium, wind from the SE at 7.2 mph, gusting to 20.6 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 11
Kickoff (local)
12:00 AM EST
Venue
FBC Mortgage Stadium
Capacity
44,206
Elevation
75 ft
Surface
Grass

Travel and rest

Measure Arizona StateAway UCFHome
This week1,847 miles0 miles
Last weekHome game2,152 miles
Season total16,363 miles7,629 miles
Body clock22:0000:00
Rest7 days7 days

Arizona State travels 1,847 miles to this game, a cross-country trip. A trip of this length is worth roughly two thirds of a point to the home team on the measured evidence.