Texas (power rating: 25.1) holds a 10.7-point advantage over Florida (14.4) on a neutral field per Blue Chip Analytics. Texas's home field adds 3.4 points to that advantage at DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium. Beyond home field, the model reads only a slight effect from Florida's trip and the warm conditions. The weather component is provisional until the game-time reading is confirmed. Adjust the factors in the tool above to test your own numbers.
The latest reading for DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium shows Clear, 80°F, heat index 85°F with winds of 13 mph. Gusts reaching 25 mph add variance to the kicking and passing game. Games with gusts at or above 30 mph have seen the total move down by about 1.4 points. It was taken before the ~10-day forecast window opened, so it describes the furthest hour the forecast reached rather than kickoff itself, and it is replaced once the game comes inside the window. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.
Prediction markets on Kalshi price Texas as 74% favorites to beat Florida (26%). That implies a market-derived spread of Texas -6.8. The Blue Chip model makes it Texas -14.7, a notable divergence from the Kalshi consensus. Use the line value calculator below to compare prediction market probabilities against your own line.
Clear
80°F
| Measure | FloridaAway | TexasHome |
|---|---|---|
| This week | 923 miles | 0 miles |
| Last week | Home game | 363 miles |
| Season total | 3,188 miles | 2,142 miles |
| Body clock | 12:00 | 11:00 |
| Rest | 7 days | 7 days |
Florida travels 923 miles to this game, a significant road trip. Florida arrives with a 1-hour westward body clock shift, short of the two-zone westward threshold where travel starts to price.
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