Biggest Travel Disadvantages This Week
Teams ranked by how much further they traveled than their opponent. At a neutral site both teams travel, so the gap between them is the burden - not the raw trip. Body-clock offset and rest-day differential compound it.
2,414 miles · +3h body-clock shift · +6d rest edge
2,307 miles · -3h body-clock shift · opponent +1d rest
1,555 miles · +3h body-clock shift · equal rest
Cincinnati travels 1,555 miles to face
Arizona, arriving with a +3h body-clock shift.
1,543 miles · +1h body-clock shift · +1d rest edge
Boston College travels 1,543 miles to face
SMU, arriving with a +1h body-clock shift.
1,519 miles · +2h body-clock shift · +2d rest edge
Navy travels 1,519 miles to face
Air Force, arriving with a +2h body-clock shift.
Highest Weather-Risk Games This Week
Games ranked by combined wind, temperature, and precipitation impact. Thresholds: sustained wind ≥ 15 mph, gusts ≥ 25 mph, temp ≤ 32°F or ≥ 95°F, precipitation chance ≥ 60%.
84°F, 20 mph wind, Sunny
Oregon State @
Colorado State: 84°F, 20 mph wind, Sunny: conditions historically favor the home team when passing difficulty is elevated.
62°F, 14 mph wind, 8% precip, Cloudy
Michigan @
Minnesota: 62°F, 14 mph wind, 8% precip, Cloudy: conditions historically favor the home team when passing difficulty is elevated.
76°F, 2 mph wind, 69% precip, Light rain
Miami @
Clemson: 76°F, 2 mph wind, 69% precip, Light rain: conditions historically favor the home team when passing difficulty is elevated.
Strongest Home-Field Advantages This Week
Home teams ranked by stadium HFA rating. Higher values reflect stronger historical home performance at that venue. Venues above 4,000 ft are flagged for altitude disadvantage.
HFA 3.8 pts · Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex · 16,909 capacity
Hawai'i carries a 3.8-point HFA edge at Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex (16,909 capacity) against
San José State.
HFA 3.8 pts · Gerald J. Ford Stadium · 32,000 capacity
SMU carries a 3.8-point HFA edge at Gerald J. Ford Stadium (32,000 capacity) against
Boston College.
HFA 3.5 pts · Pratt & Whitney Stadium · 36,000 capacity
UConn carries a 3.5-point HFA edge at Pratt & Whitney Stadium (36,000 capacity) against
Syracuse.
Vegas versus Prediction Markets
The bookmaker's spread against the spread implied by the Kalshi prediction market - two markets, no model. When they disagree, it is worth asking which one moves.
Book: LSU -53.5 · Market: LSU -29.9 · Gap: 23.6 pts
The bookmaker line is
LSU -53.5; the prediction market implies
LSU -29.9, a notable divergence from the book. Two markets, no model - a wide gap is one side waiting to move.
Book: Florida Atlantic -44.5 · Market: Florida Atlantic -29.9 · Gap: 14.6 pts
The bookmaker line is
Florida Atlantic -44.5; the prediction market implies
Florida Atlantic -29.9, a notable divergence from the book. Two markets, no model - a wide gap is one side waiting to move.
Book: UAB -30.5 · Market: UAB -23.8 · Gap: 6.7 pts
The bookmaker line is
UAB -30.5; the prediction market implies
UAB -23.8, a notable divergence from the book. Two markets, no model - a wide gap is one side waiting to move.
Week 5 Picks: Where the Model Disagrees with the Spread
The side the Blue Chip model favors against the bookmaker's spread, strongest disagreement first; a game is listed only where the model line and the book line differ by at least 1 point. These are model-versus-spread leans, not a service: no record is kept or published, and the line you can get may differ.
Pick: -18.1TXSO · Strong value · Model: Florida Atlantic -26.4 · Book: Florida Atlantic -44.5 · Prediction market: Florida Atlantic -29.9
The model makes it
Florida Atlantic -26.4 against a book line of Florida Atlantic -44.5; it sees strong value on Texas Southern, 18.1 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Florida Atlantic -29.9, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: -9.2SAM · Strong value · Model: UAB -21.3 · Book: UAB -30.5 · Prediction market: UAB -23.8
The model makes it
UAB -21.3 against a book line of UAB -30.5; it sees strong value on Samford, 9.2 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies UAB -23.8, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: +7.4SDSU · Strong value · Model: Texas State -2.1 · Book: Texas State -9.5 · Prediction market: Texas State -8.0
The model makes it
Texas State -2.1 against a book line of Texas State -9.5; it sees strong value on San Diego State, 7.4 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Texas State -8.0, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: +7.1CONN · Strong value · Model: UConn -0.6 · Book: Syracuse -6.5 · Prediction market: Syracuse -5.3
The model makes it
UConn -0.6 against a book line of Syracuse -6.5; it sees strong value on UConn, 7.1 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Syracuse -5.3, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: +6.7M-OH · Strong value · Model: Miami (OH) -19.2 · Book: Miami (OH) -12.5 · Prediction market: Miami (OH) -8.8
The model makes it
Miami (OH) -19.2 against a book line of Miami (OH) -12.5; it sees strong value on Miami (OH), 6.7 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Miami (OH) -8.8, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: +6.1ISU · Strong value · Model: Iowa State -9.1 · Book: Iowa State -3.0 · Prediction market: Iowa State -2.0
The model makes it
Iowa State -9.1 against a book line of Iowa State -3.0; it sees strong value on Iowa State, 6.1 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Iowa State -2.0, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: +6.1USF · Strong value · Model: South Florida -11.6 · Book: South Florida -5.5 · Prediction market: South Florida -4.2
The model makes it
South Florida -11.6 against a book line of South Florida -5.5; it sees strong value on South Florida, 6.1 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies South Florida -4.2, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: +5.5USA · Strong value · Model: South Alabama -19.5 · Book: South Alabama -14.0 · Prediction market: South Alabama -10.5
The model makes it
South Alabama -19.5 against a book line of South Alabama -14.0; it sees strong value on South Alabama, 5.5 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies South Alabama -10.5, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: -5.2UCF · Strong value · Model: Houston -5.3 · Book: Houston -10.5 · Prediction market: Houston -8.3
The model makes it
Houston -5.3 against a book line of Houston -10.5; it sees strong value on UCF, 5.2 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Houston -8.3, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: +4.8IOWA · Strong value · Model: Ohio State -9.7 · Book: Ohio State -14.5 · Prediction market: Ohio State -12.0
The model makes it
Ohio State -9.7 against a book line of Ohio State -14.5; it sees strong value on Iowa, 4.8 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Ohio State -12.0, a modest gap from the model.
Pick: +4.0TENN · Strong value · Model: Tennessee -10.6 · Book: Tennessee -6.5 · Prediction market: Tennessee -4.8
The model makes it
Tennessee -10.6 against a book line of Tennessee -6.5; it sees strong value on Tennessee, 4.0 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Tennessee -4.8, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: +4.0ILL · Strong value · Model: Illinois -14.5 · Book: Illinois -10.5 · Prediction market: Illinois -7.7
The model makes it
Illinois -14.5 against a book line of Illinois -10.5; it sees strong value on Illinois, 4.0 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Illinois -7.7, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: -3.9OHIO · Value · Model: Ohio -7.4 · Book: Ohio -3.5 · Prediction market: Ohio -3.3
The model makes it
Ohio -7.4 against a book line of Ohio -3.5; it sees value on Ohio, 3.9 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Ohio -3.3, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: -3.7CIN · Value · Model: Arizona -2.8 · Book: Arizona -6.5 · Prediction market: Arizona -5.6
The model makes it
Arizona -2.8 against a book line of Arizona -6.5; it sees value on Cincinnati, 3.7 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Arizona -5.6, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: +3.7JMU · Value · Model: James Madison -22.2 · Book: James Madison -18.5 · Prediction market: James Madison -12.1
The model makes it
James Madison -22.2 against a book line of James Madison -18.5; it sees value on James Madison, 3.7 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies James Madison -12.1, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: -3.4MEM · Value · Model: Memphis -23.9 · Book: Memphis -20.5 · Prediction market: Memphis -14.7
The model makes it
Memphis -23.9 against a book line of Memphis -20.5; it sees value on Memphis, 3.4 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Memphis -14.7, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: +3.4CSU · Value · Model: Oregon State -3.1 · Book: Oregon State -6.5 · Prediction market: Oregon State -5.3
The model makes it
Oregon State -3.1 against a book line of Oregon State -6.5; it sees value on Colorado State, 3.4 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Oregon State -5.3, a modest gap from the model.
Pick: -3.2PITT · Value · Model: Pittsburgh -0.7 · Book: Virginia Tech -2.5 · Prediction market: Virginia Tech -0.9
The model makes it
Pittsburgh -0.7 against a book line of Virginia Tech -2.5; it sees value on Pittsburgh, 3.2 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Virginia Tech -0.9, a modest gap from the model.
Pick: +3.1MINN · Value · Model: Michigan -3.4 · Book: Michigan -6.5 · Prediction market: Michigan -5.0
The model makes it
Michigan -3.4 against a book line of Michigan -6.5; it sees value on Minnesota, 3.1 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Michigan -5.0, a modest gap from the model.
Pick: -3.1ND · Value · Model: Notre Dame -24.1 · Book: Notre Dame -21.0 · Prediction market: Notre Dame -16.4
The model makes it
Notre Dame -24.1 against a book line of Notre Dame -21.0; it sees value on Notre Dame, 3.1 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Notre Dame -16.4, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: -2.8IU · Value · Model: Indiana -27.3 · Book: Indiana -24.5 · Prediction market: Indiana -18.5
The model makes it
Indiana -27.3 against a book line of Indiana -24.5; it sees value on Indiana, 2.8 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Indiana -18.5, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: -2.8ALA · Value · Model: Alabama -8.3 · Book: Alabama -5.5 · Prediction market: Alabama -4.2
The model makes it
Alabama -8.3 against a book line of Alabama -5.5; it sees value on Alabama, 2.8 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Alabama -4.2, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: +2.6CMU · Value · Model: Central Michigan -9.2 · Book: Central Michigan -6.5 · Prediction market: Central Michigan -5.7
The model makes it
Central Michigan -9.2 against a book line of Central Michigan -6.5; it sees value on Central Michigan, 2.6 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Central Michigan -5.7, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: -2.3BC · Slight lean · Model: SMU -19.2 · Book: SMU -21.5 · Prediction market: SMU -16.3
The model makes it
SMU -19.2 against a book line of SMU -21.5; it sees a slight lean toward Boston College, 2.3 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies SMU -16.3, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: +2.1UL · Slight lean · Model: Louisiana -8.6 · Book: Louisiana -6.5 · Prediction market: Louisiana -4.2
The model makes it
Louisiana -8.6 against a book line of Louisiana -6.5; it sees a slight lean toward Louisiana, 2.1 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Louisiana -4.2, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: +2.0BOIS · Slight lean · Model: Boise State -21.5 · Book: Boise State -19.5 · Prediction market: Boise State -15.0
The model makes it
Boise State -21.5 against a book line of Boise State -19.5; it sees a slight lean toward Boise State, 2.0 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Boise State -15.0, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: +2.0UNM · Slight lean · Model: New Mexico -25.5 · Book: New Mexico -23.5 · Prediction market: New Mexico -18.5
The model makes it
New Mexico -25.5 against a book line of New Mexico -23.5; it sees a slight lean toward New Mexico, 2.0 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies New Mexico -18.5, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: -2.0WKU · Slight lean · Model: Western Kentucky -0.5 · Book: New Mexico State -1.5 · Prediction market: New Mexico State -0.7
The model makes it
Western Kentucky -0.5 against a book line of New Mexico State -1.5; it sees a slight lean toward Western Kentucky, 2.0 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies New Mexico State -0.7, a modest gap from the model.
Pick: -1.9MIA · Slight lean · Model: Miami -17.4 · Book: Miami -15.5 · Prediction market: Miami -11.1
The model makes it
Miami -17.4 against a book line of Miami -15.5; it sees a slight lean toward Miami, 1.9 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Miami -11.1, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: -1.9UNT · Slight lean · Model: North Texas -4.4 · Book: North Texas -2.5 · Prediction market: North Texas -1.9
The model makes it
North Texas -4.4 against a book line of North Texas -2.5; it sees a slight lean toward North Texas, 1.9 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies North Texas -1.9, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: -1.8PSU · Slight lean · Model: Penn State -4.3 · Book: Penn State -2.5 · Prediction market: Penn State -2.0
The model makes it
Penn State -4.3 against a book line of Penn State -2.5; it sees a slight lean toward Penn State, 1.8 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Penn State -2.0, a modest gap from the model.
Pick: +1.8CCU · Slight lean · Model: Georgia Southern -0.7 · Book: Georgia Southern -2.5 · Prediction market: Georgia Southern -1.7
The model makes it
Georgia Southern -0.7 against a book line of Georgia Southern -2.5; it sees a slight lean toward Coastal Carolina, 1.8 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Georgia Southern -1.7, a modest gap from the model.
Pick: +1.5NEB · Slight lean · Model: Nebraska -16.0 · Book: Nebraska -14.5 · Prediction market: Nebraska -11.5
The model makes it
Nebraska -16.0 against a book line of Nebraska -14.5; it sees a slight lean toward Nebraska, 1.5 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Nebraska -11.5, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: +1.3MASS · Slight lean · Model: Massachusetts -7.3 · Book: Massachusetts -6.0 · Prediction market: Massachusetts -4.5
The model makes it
Massachusetts -7.3 against a book line of Massachusetts -6.0; it sees a slight lean toward Massachusetts, 1.3 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Massachusetts -4.5, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: -1.3FRES · Slight lean · Model: Washington State -0.3 · Book: Washington State -1.5 · Prediction market: Washington State -0.9
The model makes it
Washington State -0.3 against a book line of Washington State -1.5; it sees a slight lean toward Fresno State, 1.2 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Washington State -0.9, in line with the model.
Pick: +1.2WAKE · Slight lean · Model: Wake Forest -15.7 · Book: Wake Forest -14.5 · Prediction market: Wake Forest -11.0
The model makes it
Wake Forest -15.7 against a book line of Wake Forest -14.5; it sees a slight lean toward Wake Forest, 1.2 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Wake Forest -11.0, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: -1.2LOU · Slight lean · Model: Louisville -4.2 · Book: Louisville -3.0 · Prediction market: Louisville -4.3
The model makes it
Louisville -4.2 against a book line of Louisville -3.0; it sees a slight lean toward Louisville, 1.2 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Louisville -4.3, in line with the model.
Pick: -1.2UK · Slight lean · Model: South Carolina -1.3 · Book: South Carolina -2.5 · Prediction market: South Carolina -1.3
The model makes it
South Carolina -1.3 against a book line of South Carolina -2.5; it sees a slight lean toward Kentucky, 1.2 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies South Carolina -1.3, in line with the model.
Pick: -1.1BAY · Slight lean · Model: Arizona State -2.4 · Book: Arizona State -3.5 · Prediction market: Arizona State -2.8
The model makes it
Arizona State -2.4 against a book line of Arizona State -3.5; it sees a slight lean toward Baylor, 1.1 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Arizona State -2.8, in line with the model.
Pick: +1.1BALL · Slight lean · Model: Toledo -19.9 · Book: Toledo -21.0 · Prediction market: Toledo -15.4
The model makes it
Toledo -19.9 against a book line of Toledo -21.0; it sees a slight lean toward Ball State, 1.1 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Toledo -15.4, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: +1.1USC · Slight lean · Model: USC -9.6 · Book: USC -8.5 · Prediction market: USC -6.7
The model makes it
USC -9.6 against a book line of USC -8.5; it sees a slight lean toward USC, 1.1 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies USC -6.7, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: -1.0UTSA · Slight lean · Model: UTSA -13.5 · Book: UTSA -12.5 · Prediction market: UTSA -9.6
The model makes it
UTSA -13.5 against a book line of UTSA -12.5; it sees a slight lean toward UTSA, 1.0 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies UTSA -9.6, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: -1.0UVA · Slight lean · Model: Virginia -2.5 · Book: Virginia -1.5 · Prediction market: Pick'em
The model makes it
Virginia -2.5 against a book line of Virginia -1.5; it sees a slight lean toward Virginia, 1.0 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Pick'em, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: +1.0BUF · Slight lean · Model: Western Michigan -11.5 · Book: Western Michigan -12.5 · Prediction market: Western Michigan -10.1
The model makes it
Western Michigan -11.5 against a book line of Western Michigan -12.5; it sees a slight lean toward Buffalo, 1.0 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Western Michigan -10.1, a modest gap from the model.
Notable ATS Records This Week
Teams in this week's games with a cover rate of ≥60% (hot) or ≤40% (cold) ATS this season, minimum 4 games with a decided ATS result.
Northwestern is hot ats this season, covering 4-0 (100%) ATS in 4 games. They play home vs.
Penn State this week.
Hot ATS ·
5-0 ATS (100%) ·
home vs. Marshall
James Madison is hot ats this season, covering 5-0 (100%) ATS in 5 games. They play home vs.
Marshall this week.
Hot ATS ·
5-0 ATS (100%) ·
home vs. UTEP
New Mexico is hot ats this season, covering 5-0 (100%) ATS in 5 games. They play home vs.
UTEP this week.
Hot ATS ·
5-0 ATS (100%) ·
home vs. Maryland
Nebraska is hot ats this season, covering 5-0 (100%) ATS in 5 games. They play home vs.
Maryland this week.
How We Ranked Week 5's Games
Each ranked section draws from the same enriched data that powers our per-game pages.
Travel distances are calculated as straight-line (great-circle) distances from each team's home
market to the game stadium. Body-clock offset is the signed time-zone difference the away team
crosses, or both teams in case of neutral site games. Rest-day differential is the difference in
days since each team last played. Weather scoring compounds wind, temperature, and precipitation
against fixed thresholds, dome stadiums are excluded as weather is irrelevant indoors, see our
Weather tool for the full methodology.
HFA ratings come from our
Home Field Advantage tool, which estimates
the per-venue point value based on historical margin-of-victory data. Stadiums above 4,000 ft
are flagged; altitude creates a documented visiting-team disadvantage. Power ratings are from the
Blue Chip power-rating model. A pick is the
side the model favors where its line and the market line differ by at least
1 point, graded on the same ladder the per-game pages use.
The Vegas versus Prediction Markets section compares the bookmaker's spread with the spread
implied by the Kalshi prediction market - converted from its win probability through a fixed
logistic scale - with no model involved. The Picks section sets the Blue Chip model line
against the bookmaker line, with the Kalshi-implied line beneath each pick as a second read.
ATS records are season-to-date.
Frequently Asked Questions
How many games are in college football Week 5 2026?
Week 5 of the 2026 FBS season features 59 games tracked by Blue Chip Analytics. The full schedule, lines, and totals are listed in the game table on this page.
How does Blue Chip Analytics rank travel disadvantages?
Teams are ranked by how much further they traveled than their opponent, measured as straight-line distance from each home market to the game stadium. At a home game the host travels nothing, so this is simply the visitor's trip; at a neutral site both teams travel and the gap between them is the burden. Body-clock offset (time-zone hours crossed) is listed alongside distance as a compound fatigue indicator.
What weather conditions qualify as high-risk for this week?
Games are flagged when the kickoff-hour forecast meets at least one of: sustained wind ≥ 15 mph, gusts ≥ 25 mph, temperature ≤ 32°F or ≥ 95°F, or a precipitation chance ≥ 60%. Scores compound across all factors: a cold and windy game ranks higher than a mildly breezy one. Weeks with no game past these thresholds show no weather section at all.
What is a Home Field Advantage (HFA) rating?
Blue Chip's HFA rating estimates the point value of playing at home at a specific stadium, based on historical margin-of-victory data. A rating of 3.0 means the home team historically performs about 3 points better at that venue than their power ratings alone would predict.
What does the Vegas versus Prediction Markets section show?
It ranks games by how far the bookmaker's spread sits from the spread implied by the Kalshi prediction market. Kalshi's win probability is converted to a spread through a fixed logistic scale, and no model is involved - it is one market against another. A wide gap is a directional flag, not a betting recommendation.
What are the Week 5 2026 picks?
Each pick is the side the Blue Chip model favors against the bookmaker's spread, listed only where the model line and the book line differ by at least 1 point and ranked by the size of that gap, graded on the same ladder the per-game pages use. The Kalshi-implied line sits beneath each as a second market read. These are model-versus-spread leans, not a service: no record is kept or published, and the line you can get may differ.
What qualifies as a notable ATS record?
Teams are flagged when at least 4 of their games this season have produced a decided ATS result and their cover rate is ≥60% (hot) or ≤40% (cold). Records are season-to-date and, especially early on, rest on small samples - a hot or cold streak here is context to note, not a demonstrated edge.
Week 5 of the 2026 season features 59 FBS games; the ranked sections above surface the travel, weather, HFA, market-vs-market and ATS-record angles, and the picks where the model disagrees with the spread.
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