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College Football Playoff Semifinal at the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl •
State Farm StadiumNeutral siteIndoor

Miami31 @FINAL 27Ole Miss

10-2 ACC Power rating: 26.0
11-1 SEC Power rating: 23.6

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
MIA -3.0
PM Implied
Not yet available
Blue Chip model
MIA -2.0
Edge
+0.9MISS
See details
◂ favors MIAfavors MISS ▸Market: MIA -3.0
MIA
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
neutral
no impact
MISS
no impact
no impact
1 MIA1 MISS2 MIA2 MISSModel: MIA -2.0

Betting information

Spread
MIA -3.0
Total
52.5
Odds implied score
MIA 27.8 – 24.8 MISS

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

Miami defeated Ole Miss 31–27 in a closely contested finish. Miami covered by 1.0; Game went Over by 5.5. The market closed at Miami -3.0 and the Blue Chip model made it Miami -2.0. The two were within a point of each other, so there was no meaningful edge in this line.

What were the weather conditions for Miami vs Ole Miss?

This game was played indoors at State Farm Stadium in a climate-controlled environment. Weather was not a factor.

What happened in the game?

Miami travels 1,985 miles to this game, a cross-country trip.

That is a westward shift of 2 time zones, the one travel pattern Blue Chip has measured as carrying a consistent price: about 0.9 points, with the distance burden already inside it.

Miami won by 4 in a closely contested finish.

Miami covered the spread narrowly.

The total went Over by 5.5 points.

How do Miami and Ole Miss compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Miami (26.0) over Ole Miss (23.6) by 2.4 points on a neutral field. Ole Miss faces a power rating deficit at a neutral venue. Check whether the market spread accounts for this gap. Neither team has a home-field advantage here, so the neutral-field differential above is already the venue-adjusted read.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Miami and Ole Miss?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

Miami won and Miami covered the spread.

Conditions

Indoor, climate controlled

~72°F

State Farm Stadium is a domed venue. Wind, precipitation and temperature are not factors in this game.

Wind map for Miami at Ole Miss: aerial view of State Farm Stadium

Quick facts

Week
Postseason
Kickoff (local)
05:30 PM MST
Venue
State Farm Stadium
Capacity
63,400
Elevation
1,070 ft
Surface
Grass

Travel and rest

MiamiAway Ole MissHome
This week1,985 miles1,304 miles
Last weekBye weekBye week
Season total8,532 miles3,826 miles
Body clock19:3018:30
Rest8 days7 days

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