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Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl •
Sun BowlNeutral site

Arizona State39 @FINAL 42Duke

8-4 Big 12 Power rating: 13.4
8-5 ACC Power rating: 12.4

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
DUKE -4.0
PM Implied
DUKE -2.4
Blue Chip model
ASU -1.0
Edge
-5.0ASU
See details
◂ favors ASUfavors DUKE ▸Market: DUKE -4.0
ASU
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
neutral
no impact
no impact
no impact
no impact
2 ASU2 DUKE4 ASU4 DUKEModel: ASU -1.0

Betting information

Spread
DUKE -4.0
Total
49.5
Odds implied score
ASU 22.8 – 26.8 DUKE
Prediction markets
DUKE 59% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

Duke defeated Arizona State 42–39 in a nail-biter. Arizona State covered by 1.0; Game went Over by 31.5. The market closed at Duke -4.0 and the Blue Chip model made it Arizona State -1.0 - a gap of 5.0 points toward Arizona State, of which 5.0 points were beyond the model's measured factors. That was an information gap - the market pricing something the model does not carry - rather than a measured edge.

What were the weather conditions for Arizona State vs Duke?

At kickoff, conditions at Sun Bowl were Clear, 56°F with winds of 4 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Arizona State travels 336 miles to this game, a short road trip.

The trip crosses none of the distance or time-zone thresholds that have measured a price, so travel is not a factor here.

Duke won by 3 in a nail-biter.

Arizona State covered the spread narrowly.

The total went Over by 31.5 points.

How do Arizona State and Duke compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Arizona State (13.4) over Duke (12.4) by 1.0 points on a neutral field. Duke faces a power rating deficit at a neutral venue. Check whether the market spread accounts for this gap. Neither team has a home-field advantage here, so the neutral-field differential above is already the venue-adjusted read.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Arizona State and Duke?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

Duke won and Arizona State covered the spread.

Conditions

as of December 31, 2025 Game-time

Clear

56°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity39%
Wind4 mph W
Gusts6 mph
Snow chance0%
Wind map for Arizona State at Duke: aerial view of Sun Bowl, wind from the W at 3.6 mph, gusting to 5.6 mph

Quick facts

Week
Postseason
Kickoff (local)
12:00 PM MST
Venue
Sun Bowl
Capacity
51,500
Elevation
3,904 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

Arizona StateAway DukeHome
This week336 miles1,605 miles
Last weekBye weekBye week
Season total9,256 miles10,703 miles
Body clock12:0014:00
Rest32 days24 days

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