@ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @
Bush's Boca Raton Bowl •
FAU StadiumNeutral site

Toledo22 @FINAL 27Louisville

8-4 MAC Power rating: 3.1
8-4 ACC Power rating: 18.2

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
LOU -12.5
PM Implied
LOU -8.0
Blue Chip model
LOU -14.8
Edge
+2.4LOU
See details
◂ favors TOLfavors LOU ▸Market: LOU -12.5
15.1 › LOU
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
neutral
no impact
no impact
no impact
TOL
1 TOL1 LOU2 TOL2 LOUModel: LOU -14.8

Betting information

Spread
LOU -12.5
Total
44.5
Odds implied score
TOL 16.0 – 28.5 LOU
Prediction markets
LOU 79% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

Louisville defeated Toledo 27–22 in a closely contested finish. Toledo covered by 7.5; Game went Over by 4.5. The market closed at Louisville -12.5 and the Blue Chip model made it Louisville -14.8, an edge of 2.4 points toward Louisville.

What were the weather conditions for Toledo vs Louisville?

At kickoff, conditions at FAU Stadium were Cloudy, 72°F with winds of 13 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Toledo travels 1,072 miles to this game, a significant road trip.

The trip crosses none of the distance or time-zone thresholds that have measured a price, so travel is not a factor here.

Louisville won by 5 in a closely contested finish.

Toledo covered the spread by a solid margin.

The total went Over by 4.5 points.

How do Toledo and Louisville compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Louisville (18.2) over Toledo (3.1) by 15.1 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. Neither team has a home-field advantage here, so the neutral-field differential above is already the venue-adjusted read.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Toledo and Louisville?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

Louisville won and Toledo covered the spread.

Conditions

as of December 23, 2025 Game-time

Cloudy

72°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity70%
Wind13 mph ENE
Gusts17 mph
Snow chance0%
Wind map for Toledo at Louisville: aerial view of FAU Stadium, wind from the ENE at 12.8 mph, gusting to 16.8 mph

Quick facts

Week
Postseason
Kickoff (local)
02:00 PM EST
Venue
FAU Stadium
Capacity
30,000
Elevation
16 ft
Surface
Grass

Travel and rest

ToledoAway LouisvilleHome
This week1,072 miles879 miles
Last weekBye weekBye week
Season total5,830 miles5,420 miles
Body clock14:0014:00
Rest24 days24 days

Other games this week