7 Final 77 0 Final 73 13 Final 59 3 Final 59 21 Final 28 38 Final 21 0 Final 55 10 Final 17 27 Final 9 20 Final 48 21 Final 44 27 Final 24 3 Final 35 15 Final 36 28 Final 24 38 Final 36 31 Final 39 7 Final 34 3 Final 87 23 Final 24 20 Final 70 7 Final 52 7 Final 45 10 Final 13 17 Final 41 10 Final 45 7 Final 35 38 Final 13 31 Final 26 14 Final 16 17 Final 28 21 Final 18 20 Final 26 7 Final 12 21 Final 52 10 Final 37 31 Final 27 45 Final 17 0 Final 52 38 Final 14 10 Final 63 6 Final 44 17 Final 34 13 Final 21 10 Final 56 7 Final 70 26 Final 35 3 Final 52 20 Final 33 27 Final 29 20 Final 38 14 Final 49 24 Final 58 23 Final 17 6 Final 77 45 Final 24 7 Final 52 24 Final 28 31 Final 17 26 Final 28 7 Final 56 28 Final 24 9 Final 45 10 Final 62 14 Final 48 9 Final 36 10 Final 28 13 Final 16 7 Final 45 30 Final 38 14 Final 45 23 Final 24 35 Final 24 7 Final 22 9 Final 41 8 Final 43 7 Final 63 3 Final 44 10 Final 51 20 Final 30 38 Final 32 10 Final 43 3 Final 49 20 Final 7 30 Final 49 19 Final 29
Xbox Bowl •
Ford Center At The StarNeutral siteIndoor

Missouri State28 @FINAL 34Arkansas State

7-5 CUSA Power rating: -9.9
6-6 Sun Belt Power rating: -5.5

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
ARST -1.5
PM Implied
ARST -0.6
Blue Chip model
ARST -4.4
Edge
+2.9ARST
See details
◂ favors MOSTfavors ARST ▸Market: ARST -1.5
4.4 › ARST
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
neutral
no impact
no impact
no impact
no impact
1 MOST1 ARST2 MOST2 ARST3 MOST3 ARSTModel: ARST -4.4

Betting information

Spread
ARST -1.5
Total
55.5
Odds implied score
MOST 27.0 – 28.5 ARST
Prediction markets
ARST 53% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

Arkansas State defeated Missouri State 34–28 in a closely contested finish. Arkansas State covered by 4.5; Game went Over by 6.5. The market closed at Arkansas State -1.5 and the Blue Chip model made it Arkansas State -4.4 - a gap of 2.9 points toward Arkansas State, of which 2.9 points were beyond the model's measured factors. That was an information gap - the market pricing something the model does not carry - rather than a measured edge.

What were the weather conditions for Missouri State vs Arkansas State?

This game was played indoors at Ford Center At The Star in a climate-controlled environment. Weather was not a factor.

What happened in the game?

Missouri State travels 346 miles to this game, a short road trip.

The trip crosses none of the distance or time-zone thresholds that have measured a price, so travel is not a factor here.

Arkansas State won by 6 in a closely contested finish.

Arkansas State covered the spread.

The total went Over by 6.5 points.

How do Missouri State and Arkansas State compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Arkansas State (-5.5) over Missouri State (-9.9) by 4.4 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. Neither team has a home-field advantage here, so the neutral-field differential above is already the venue-adjusted read.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Missouri State and Arkansas State?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

Arkansas State won and Arkansas State covered the spread.

Conditions

Indoor, climate controlled

~72°F

Ford Center At The Star is a domed venue. Wind, precipitation and temperature are not factors in this game.

Wind map for Missouri State at Arkansas State: aerial view of Ford Center At The Star

Quick facts

Week
Postseason
Kickoff (local)
08:00 PM CST
Venue
Ford Center At The Star
Capacity
12,000
Elevation
709 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

Missouri StateAway Arkansas StateHome
This week346 miles399 miles
Last weekBye weekBye week
Season total9,478 miles4,412 miles
Body clock20:0020:00
Rest20 days20 days

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