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Liberty Mutual Music City Bowl •
Nissan StadiumNeutral site

Tennessee28 @FINAL 30Illinois

8-4 SEC Power rating: 20.8
8-4 Big Ten Power rating: 16.8

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
TENN -3.0
PM Implied
TENN -2.2
Blue Chip model
TENN -3.5
Edge
-0.5TENN
See details
◂ favors TENNfavors ILL ▸Market: TENN -3.0
‹ 4.0 TENN
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
neutral
no impact
no impact
no impact
ILL
1 TENN1 ILL2 TENN2 ILLModel: TENN -3.5

Betting information

Spread
TENN -3.0
Total
62.5
Odds implied score
TENN 32.8 – 29.8 ILL
Prediction markets
TENN 59% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

Illinois defeated Tennessee 30–28 in a nail-biter. Illinois covered by 5.0; Game went Under by 4.5. The market closed at Tennessee -3.0 and the Blue Chip model made it Tennessee -3.5. The two were within a point of each other, so there was no meaningful edge in this line. Blue Chip Analytics had rated Tennessee 4.0 points stronger on a neutral field.

What were the weather conditions for Tennessee vs Illinois?

At kickoff, conditions at Nissan Stadium were Cloudy, 28°F, wind chill 21°F with winds of 5 mph. At 28°F this is a freezing game. Cold is a scoring-environment factor rather than a side factor: Blue Chip has not measured a reliable spread effect from temperature. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Tennessee travels 160 miles to this game, a short road trip.

Tennessee arrives with a 1-hour westward body clock shift, short of the two-zone westward threshold where travel starts to price.

Illinois won by 2 in a nail-biter.

Illinois covered the spread.

The total went Under by 4.5 points.

How do Tennessee and Illinois compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Tennessee (20.8) over Illinois (16.8) by 4.0 points on a neutral field. Illinois faces a power rating deficit at a neutral venue. Check whether the market spread accounts for this gap. Neither team has a home-field advantage here, so the neutral-field differential above is already the venue-adjusted read.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Tennessee and Illinois?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

Illinois won and Illinois covered the spread.

Conditions

as of December 30, 2025 Game-time

Cloudy

28°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity60%
Wind5 mph WSW
Gusts9 mph
Wind chill21°F
Snow chance0%
Wind map for Tennessee at Illinois: aerial view of Nissan Stadium, wind from the WSW at 5.4 mph, gusting to 8.5 mph

Quick facts

Week
Postseason
Kickoff (local)
04:30 PM CST
Venue
Nissan Stadium
Capacity
69,143
Elevation
397 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

TennesseeAway IllinoisHome
This week160 miles283 miles
Last weekBye weekBye week
Season total2,861 miles5,766 miles
Body clock17:3016:30
Rest31 days30 days

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