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Week 0 •
Aviva StadiumNeutral site

Iowa State24 @FINAL 21Kansas State

0-0 Big 12 Power rating: 10.1
0-0 Big 12 Power rating: 8.1

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
KSU -3.5
PM Implied
KSU -2.7
Blue Chip model
ISU -2.0
Edge
-5.5ISU
See details
◂ favors ISUfavors KSU ▸Market: KSU -3.5
ISU
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
neutral
no impact
no impact
no impact
no impact
2 ISU2 KSU4 ISU4 KSU6 ISU6 KSUModel: ISU -2.0

Betting information

Spread
KSU -3.5
Total
49.5
Odds implied score
ISU 23.0 – 26.5 KSU
Prediction markets
KSU 61% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 10, 2026

Iowa State defeated Kansas State 24–21 in a nail-biter. Iowa State covered by 6.5; Game went Under by 4.5. The market closed at Kansas State -3.5 and the Blue Chip model made it Iowa State -2.0 - a gap of 5.5 points toward Iowa State, of which 5.5 points were beyond the model's measured factors. That was an information gap - the market pricing something the model does not carry - rather than a measured edge.

What were the weather conditions for Iowa State vs Kansas State?

At kickoff, conditions at Aviva Stadium were Patchy rain possible, 66°F with winds of 6 mph. There is a 100% chance of rain, though little accumulation is expected. Blue Chip has not been able to measure a reliable line effect from rain, so treat this as context rather than signal. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Iowa State travels 3,891 miles to this game, a cross-country trip.

A trip of this length is worth roughly two thirds of a point to the home team on the measured evidence.

Iowa State won by 3 in a nail-biter.

Iowa State covered the spread.

The total went Under by 4.5 points.

How do Iowa State and Kansas State compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Iowa State (10.1) over Kansas State (8.1) by 2.0 points on a neutral field. Kansas State faces a power rating deficit at a neutral venue. Check whether the market spread accounts for this gap. Neither team has a home-field advantage here, so the neutral-field differential above is already the venue-adjusted read.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Iowa State and Kansas State?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

Iowa State won and Iowa State covered the spread.

Conditions

as of August 23, 2025 Game-time

Patchy rain possible

66°F

Rain100%
Precip0.00"
Humidity82%
Wind6 mph SSE
Gusts9 mph
Wind map for Iowa State at Kansas State: aerial view of Aviva Stadium, wind from the SSE at 5.6 mph, gusting to 8.9 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 0
Kickoff (local)
05:00 PM IST
Venue
Aviva Stadium
Capacity
49,000
Elevation
13 ft
Surface
Grass

Travel and rest

Iowa StateAway Kansas StateHome
This week3,891 miles4,138 miles
Last weekSeason openerSeason opener
Season total3,891 miles4,138 miles
Body clock11:0011:00
RestSeason openerSeason opener

Other games this week