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Week 13 •
Bobcat Stadium (TX)

UL Monroe14 @FINAL 31Texas State

3-7 Sun Belt Power rating: -14.6
4-6 Sun Belt Power rating: -2.3

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
TXST -20.5
PM Implied
TXST -13.7
Blue Chip model
TXST -15.2
Edge
-5.3ULM
See details
◂ favors ULMfavors TXST ▸Market: TXST -20.5
12.3 › TXST
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
TXST
no impact
no impact
no impact
no impact
2 ULM2 TXST4 ULM4 TXST6 ULM6 TXSTModel: TXST -15.2

Betting information

Spread
TXST -20.5
Total
59.5
Odds implied score
ULM 19.5 – 40.0 TXST
Prediction markets
TXST 91% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

Texas State defeated UL Monroe 31–14 to secure a comfortable win. UL Monroe covered by 3.5; Game went Under by 14.5. The market closed at Texas State -20.5 and the Blue Chip model made it Texas State -15.2 - a gap of 5.3 points toward UL Monroe, of which 4.5 points were beyond the model's measured factors. That was an information gap - the market pricing something the model does not carry - rather than a measured edge.

What were the weather conditions for UL Monroe vs Texas State?

At kickoff, conditions at Bobcat Stadium (TX) were Overcast, 66°F with winds of 9 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

UL Monroe travels 392 miles to this game, a short road trip.

The trip crosses none of the distance or time-zone thresholds that have measured a price, so travel is not a factor here.

Texas State won by 17 to secure a comfortable win.

UL Monroe covered the spread.

The total went Under by 14.5 points.

How do UL Monroe and Texas State compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Texas State (-2.3) over UL Monroe (-14.6) by 12.3 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. Texas State brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.9). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on UL Monroe and Texas State?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

Texas State won and UL Monroe covered the spread.

Conditions

as of November 22, 2025 Game-time

Overcast

66°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity58%
Wind9 mph NE
Gusts16 mph
Snow chance0%
Wind map for UL Monroe at Texas State: aerial view of Bobcat Stadium (TX), wind from the NE at 9.2 mph, gusting to 16.3 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 13
Kickoff (local)
04:00 PM CST
Venue
Bobcat Stadium (TX)
Capacity
27,149
Elevation
600 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

UL MonroeAway Texas StateHome
This week392 miles0 miles
Last weekHome game1,043 miles
Season total5,903 miles6,865 miles
Body clock16:0016:00
Rest7 days7 days

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