Louisiana defeated Arkansas State 34–30 in a closely contested finish. Louisiana covered by 6.5; Game went Over by 9.5.
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At kick-off, conditions at Centennial Bank Stadium were Light rain, 60.1°F, Feels Like 60.1°F with winds of 4.9 mph. Precipitation chance is 100%, pointing to a wet-field game. High precip probability increases fumble risk and typically compresses both team totals. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel below.
60.1°F
Arkansas State drove 89 yards to the 2-yard line with no timeouts, but QB Jaylen Raynor was stopped at the 1-yard line on the final play, confirmed by review, resulting in a 34-30 loss.
Arkansas State scored two non-offensive touchdowns: Cody Sigler's 27-yard fumble return and Chauncey Cobb's 93-yard kickoff return, highlighting their ability to score in unconventional ways.
Arkansas State committed turnovers on a punt and a kickoff, which directly led to Louisiana's first two touchdowns, underscoring a critical area for improvement.
Jaylen Raynor threw for 256 yards and rushed for 54, while Devin Spencer added 71 rushing yards and a touchdown, showing a capable dual-threat offense that can move the ball effectively.
Despite a strong final drive, the Red Wolves failed to convert in the red zone on the last play, indicating a need for better situational play-calling and execution in crunch time.
Louisiana travels 396 miles to this game, a short road trip.
Louisiana won by 4 in a closely contested finish.
Louisiana covered the spread.
The total went Over by 9.5 points.
Precipitation chance is 100%, pointing to a wet-field game. High precip probability increases fumble risk and typically compresses both team totals.
Full conditions are shown in the data panel above. Forecast data sourced from WeatherAPI.com. Use the Line Value Calculator to apply a manual weather adjustment to your projected line.
Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favour Arkansas State (-6.5) over Louisiana (-9.2) by 2.7 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. Arkansas State brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.5). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.
Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.
Louisiana won and Louisiana covered the spread.
