Week 16
M&T Bank StadiumNeutral site

Army16 @FINAL 17Navy , Week 16, Dec 13, 2025

6-5 American Power rating: -0.4
9-2 American Power rating: 5.4

How did the line hold up?

Market line
NAVY -6.5
PM Implied
NAVY -5.7
Blue Chip model
NAVY -5.5
Edge
-0.9ARMY
See details
◂ favors ARMYfavors NAVY ▸Market: NAVY -6.5
5.8 › NAVY
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ARMY
1 ARMY1 NAVY2 ARMY2 NAVYModel: NAVY -5.5

Betting information

Spread
NAVY -6.5
Total
37.5
Odds implied score
ARMY 15.5 – 22.0 NAVY
Prediction markets
NAVY 72% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

Navy defeated Army 17–16 in a nail-biter. Army covered by 5.5; Game went Under by 4.5. The market closed at Navy -6.5 and the Blue Chip model made it Navy -5.5. The two were within a point of each other, so there was no meaningful edge in this line.

What are the key factors for Army vs Navy?

Army

First-Half Dominance Not Sustained

Army controlled the first half, leading 10-7 and adding a field goal to go up 16-10, but their offense stalled in the second half, failing to score after halftime.

Missed Opportunities on Defense

Army's defense forced two fumbles and an interception, but failed to capitalize fully, including a fumble recovery at the 1-yard line that was nullified by a Navy recovery, and an interception return for a touchdown that was overturned by replay.

Key Defensive Performances

Defensive lineman Jack Bousum had a standout game with 1.5 sacks and a fumble recovery, but the defense couldn't hold the lead in the fourth quarter.

Offensive Line Struggles in Second Half

Coach Jeff Monken noted that Army failed to sustain blocks in the second half, leading to a lack of offensive production and inability to control the clock.

Next Game: Fenway Bowl vs UConn

Army (6-6) will face UConn in the Fenway Bowl on Dec. 27, needing to address offensive consistency and second-half execution to finish the season with a win.

Navy

Clutch Fourth-Down Connection

Blake Horvath threw an 8-yard touchdown pass to Eli Heidenreich on 4th-and-goal with 6:32 remaining, capping a rally from a 16-10 deficit. Heidenreich caught six of Horvath's seven completions, showcasing their reliable chemistry in critical moments.

Turnover Struggles and Recovery

Navy committed three turnovers (two fumbles, one interception) but avoided disaster each time. A fumble at the 1-yard line was recovered by Heidenreich, and a fumble by Horvath was ruled down before a second loose ball. These near-misses highlight ball security issues that could be costly against Cincinnati.

Second-Half Defensive Improvement

After allowing 16 first-half points, Navy's defense stiffened in the second half, holding Army scoreless. Key plays included an interception by Phillip Hamilton and limiting Army's offense after halftime, which will be crucial against Cincinnati's attack.

Horvath's Dual-Threat Impact

Horvath accounted for both touchdowns (one rushing, one passing) and had a 37-yard run that set up a field goal. However, he also threw an interception and lost a fumble, showing inconsistency that Cincinnati's defense may exploit.

Resilience in High-Stakes Rivalry

Navy overcame a 16-10 deficit and multiple turnovers to win its second straight over Army, securing the Commander-In-Chief's Trophy. This mental toughness and ability to execute under pressure bodes well for a bowl game against Cincinnati.

What were the weather conditions for Army vs Navy?

At kickoff, conditions at M&T Bank Stadium were Overcast, 38°F, wind chill 35°F with winds of 6 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Army travels 202 miles to this game, a short road trip.

The trip crosses none of the distance or time-zone thresholds that have measured a price, so travel is not a factor here.

Navy won by 1 in a nail-biter.

Army covered the spread.

The total went Under by 4.5 points.

How do Army and Navy compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Navy (5.4) over Army (-0.4) by 5.8 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. Neither team has a home-field advantage here, so the neutral-field differential above is already the venue-adjusted read.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Sources

Weather

Navy won and Army covered the spread.

Conditions

as of December 13, 2025 Game-time

Overcast

38°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity78%
Wind6 mph WNW
Gusts10 mph
Wind chill35°F
Snow chance0%
Wind map for Army at Navy: aerial view of M&T Bank Stadium, wind from the WNW at 6.3 mph, gusting to 9.6 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 16
Kickoff (local)
03:00 PM EST
Venue
M&T Bank Stadium
Capacity
70,745
Elevation
10 ft
Surface
Grass

Travel and rest

Measure ArmyAway NavyHome
This week202 miles21 miles
Last weekBye weekBye week
Season total14,134 miles7,488 miles
Body clock15:0015:00
Rest14 days15 days